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Preliminary, Tentative Results of Questionable Value

Preliminary, Tentative Results of Questionable Value. by No-one who wants to be Identified. Preliminary analysis of T1279 2013 simulations of SST, soil wetness, precipitation and surface temperature. Fennessy, Cash, Manganello , Dirmeyer , Kinter, Altshuler , ECMWF.

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Preliminary, Tentative Results of Questionable Value

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  1. Preliminary, Tentative Results of Questionable Value by No-one who wants to be Identified

  2. Preliminary analysis of T1279 2013 simulations of SST, soil wetness, precipitation and surface temperature Fennessy, Cash, Manganello, Dirmeyer, Kinter, Altshuler, ECMWF

  3. T1279 7-Month Simulations:12 Year Model Climatology:01 May 2000,2001,…,2011 -15 Members2013: 01 May 2013 – 2 Members (thus far)Focus on North American Dry/Wet Pattern- Especially possible forcing mechanisms

  4. TENTATIVE Summary Regarding the Spring-summer 2013 North American Precip/TSfc, preliminary (ENS=2) MINERVA T1279 MJJA 2013 Simulations have: • Reasonable SST Forcing upstream versus OBS ? • Reasonable SWET Forcing locally versus OBS ? • Possible Impact of SST requires further investigation into teleconnection mechanisms. • Local evaporation anomalies imply Impact of local SWET • Dry West / Wet East Precip pattern roughly simulated • Hot West / Cold East TSfcpattern roughly simulated • Larger Ensemble and further analysis required

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