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Sustainable Electric Power

Sustainable Electric Power. Scott Norr, P.E. EE 4501 March 18, 2016. Electric Power Delivery and Consumption Getting More Complex. More Environmental Issues - SUSTAINABILITY Greater Population Density Larger Variety of Sources, Delivery Methods and Loads

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Sustainable Electric Power

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  1. Sustainable Electric Power Scott Norr, P.E. EE 4501 March 18, 2016

  2. Electric Power Delivery and Consumption Getting More Complex • More Environmental Issues - SUSTAINABILITY • Greater Population Density • Larger Variety of Sources, Delivery Methods and Loads • Aging Infrastructure Undergoing Life Extension • New Technology Blended with Old – Grid is Already Pretty Smart

  3. ELECTRIC DEMAND Demand growing 0.9% per year in U.S. Source: Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (www.eia.gov)

  4. World Energy Consumption US – 5% of population using 20% of world resources 505 Quad In 2008 Source: Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (www.eia.gov)

  5. Electric Grid – EfficiencyGeneration is the Weak Link Lighting: 100 Lumps IN, 3/4 Lump OUT??? Courtesy of Tom Ferguson

  6. Electric Generation Changing to Meet Demand • Large, Centralized Plants (Rarely, now) • Small, Modular, Distributed Plants • Also, Siting Renewable Generation where it makes Sense (and Profit)

  7. Large Plants • Environmental Issues • Fossil Fuels • Location/Siting • Outlet Transmission

  8. HydroElectric No Longer “Clean Energy” 3 Gorges Dam – China – 20,000 MegaWatts Hoover Dam – US – 2,000 MegaWatts Eoearth.org

  9. Large Plants (Cont.) • We’ll See New Ideas for Big Plants: • Coal is dirty – so … “Clean Coal”! • Wind and Solar are expensive and intermittent: Large-scale and Storage Needed • Geothermal has limited application: Low-Temp • Biomass puts pressure on agriculture: Cellulose • Nuclear is Tricky: Gen IV Nuclear?

  10. Clean Coal 2% Growth in all Coal Gen, 345 GW in 2012 (Natural Gas is too cheap!!) • Coal Gasification (Combined Cycle) - Low Emmissions • Potential for Carbon Sequestration

  11. WIND25% growth, 60 GW in 2012 • Wind Generators currently very popular (Several Thousand MWs in Upper Midwest • More and more Cost Effective (4 - 5 Cents/KWH) • Not a Cure-All - never windy when you need it most • Difficult to Dispatch Source: Town of Hendricks, MN

  12. Solar Electricity80% growth, 11 GW in 2012 • Photvoltaics • Electricity Directly from Sunlight • Low Conversion efficiency • Fairly High Cost • Solar Potential: • US uses 100 Quad of Energy each year • 38,200 Quad of Solar Energy hits the lower 48 each year • BUT ONLY WHEN THE SUN SHINES …

  13. New Solar Ideas: • 3-D PhotoVoltaic Cells • New Breakthroughs in Nano-Materials greatly increase the effective surface area of a Solar Cell and its ability to catch reflected light • Theoretically 50%-70% efficient • Very High Cost • Solar Concentrators • Simple Idea used in Space – Collect More Sunlight for your Existing Cells - Combine Solar Electric AND Solar Thermal • Graphene??

  14. Current Photovoltaic Technologies www.nrel.gov

  15. Solar Panels Aren’t So Simple… www.thermographicconsultancy.com

  16. Solar Flare greentechmedia.com Fire safety and Electric Safety will lead to new regulations for Solar Panels

  17. Houston, We Have a Storage Problem: Renewables are not “Dispatchable” Courtesy of Tom Ferguson If we could Store energy when available for use when it’s not….

  18. Energy Storage Technology:We’re not ready yet Source: Haresh Kamath, EPRI PEAC

  19. Tesla Power Wall

  20. 92% “DC Efficiency”, Elon? What about AC? 92% under ideal duty for a NEW battery Drops off quickly for irregular charge/ discharge profile Drops off to 80% with age Another 3-5% loss to make AC (Inverter losses) Valøenaa, et. al. – “THE EFFECT OF PHEV AND HEV DUTY CYCLES ON BATTERY AND BATTERY PACK PERFORMANCE

  21. Tesla Economics Tesla adds about $0.10 per kWh to any installation (such as solar or wind) At present in MN, Net Metering Cost Recovery makes this unattractive Future changes to rates (real-time price, PP Tariffs) could change the economics drastically!

  22. Geothermal5% Growth, 3 GW in 2010 • Extract Hot Water from the Earth • Use the Hot Water (low temp) or Flash to Steam (high temp) • 11 GW installed capacity worldwide (2010) • Capacity growing at 5% worldwide (5yr Avg) • Excellent Idea for Home Use – Ground Source Heat Pumps

  23. Binary-Cycle Plant (Geothermal)

  24. Nuclear ….Is It BACK? 0% growth, 100 GW in 2012 • Updated LWR Designs are being permitted • March 11, 2011 – Earthquake in Japan, leading to nuclear reactor meltdown • Next Generation Nuclear Reactors (Gen IV) • Modular (example: 25 MW Modules), add more modules to make a bigger plant • Fuel Flexible – Uranium, Thorium (More abundant resource) • A Promising Design: Pebble-Bed Modular Reactor • Temperature moderated with Helium or Nitrogen • Fuel encased in pebbles – ‘safe’, easy to handle

  25. Pebble-Bed Reactor Source: Black and Veatch

  26. Levelized Electricity Costs for New Plants,2015 and 2030 Incremental Transmission Costs Variable Costs, Including Fuel Fixed Costs Capital Costs 2015 2030 Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2011

  27. DEMAND SIDE • Conservation Through: Market Pricing Efficient Products

  28. IBM Predicts the Future of Electric Energy Use www.ibm.com: “The future of energy and utilities”

  29. Market Pricing • Utilities MUST and will adapt (slowly!) to the changing market: - Energy Prices becoming De-Regulated - Shop around for a better provider - Time of Day Rates - New Equipment to Automate Pricing: - Smart Meters - Smart Appliances

  30. Minnesota PowerTime-of-Day Rate (Pilot Program) On-peak: + 1.5 cents Off-peak: - 3 cents Critical Peak: + 77 cents

  31. Smart Meters • Talks to Electric Company • Talks to Consumer About Hourly Prices and Hourly Consumption • Tells Appliances what current Price is • Shops Around for a Better Rate? Source: elster.com and en.wikipedia.org

  32. Efficient Products • Smart Appliances run only when energy is cheapest, talk to each other and to the Electric Utility • Passive Solar Thermal Designs and Devices • Energy Efficient Home Designs and Ground-Source Heat Pumps

  33. Sustainability • More than Conservation • More than Smart Energy Use • Being Responsible with ALL resources and Preserving Them for the Future • “7th Generation” Concept

  34. Sustainability at UMD umdsustain.wp.d.umn.edu

  35. CONCLUSIONS New Social Pressures and New Technologies are both changing and complicating the way we convert and use energy In a World with 7.3 Billion People (9 Billion by 2030), We MUST become more mindful of How and Why We Use Energy. (http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange2/WorldPop2300final.pdf)

  36. WEB References • National Renewable Energy Labs • http://www.nrel.gov/ • Electric Power Research Institute • http://www.epri.com/ • US Dept. of Energy • http://www.energy.gov/ • Energy Information Association • http://www.eia.gov/

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