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DEVELOPMENT CO-OPERATION AND REGIONAL ACTIVITIES DEPARTMENT Prof. Petteri Taalas Director of DCR

DEVELOPMENT CO-OPERATION AND REGIONAL ACTIVITIES DEPARTMENT Prof. Petteri Taalas Director of DCR Atmospheric sciences/outside world Expectations/opportunities vs. WMO DCR Strategy & services. Petteri Taalas? DG of FMI 2002-05 (2005-7 leave to work for WMO)

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DEVELOPMENT CO-OPERATION AND REGIONAL ACTIVITIES DEPARTMENT Prof. Petteri Taalas Director of DCR

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  1. DEVELOPMENT CO-OPERATION AND REGIONAL ACTIVITIES DEPARTMENT • Prof. Petteri Taalas • Director of DCR • Atmospheric sciences/outside world • Expectations/opportunities vs. WMO • DCR Strategy & services World Meteorological Organization

  2. Petteri Taalas? • DG of FMI 2002-05 (2005-7 leave to work for WMO) • Chairman of EUMETNET Council 2004-5 • Member of ECMWF, EUMETSAT & HIRLAM councils, PR of Finland, GEO representative • Research professor/remote sensing 2000- • Coordinator of EUMETSAT O3 SAF, EU R& D projects & national R&D projects • PhD in Meteorology, Helsinki Univ. • Management training Helsinki Univ. on Ecomomics, Leonardo da Vinci Univ/Paris World Meteorological Organization

  3. DISASTER WARNING & MITIGATION World Meteorological Organization

  4. Great Natural Disaster trends 1950 - 2004 Source: MunichRe, Annual review of Natural catastrophes 2004 World Meteorological Organization

  5. Hotspots: Total Economic Losses World Meteorological Organization

  6. Multihazard early warning centresUse of met. services´ infrastructure24/7 operation, authority channels etc. World Meteorological Organization

  7. NEW INNOVATIVE SERVICES • Right information • Right form • Right timing • E.g. mobile icing warnings: • ”5 km ahead ice on the road” World Meteorological Organization

  8. ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE World Meteorological Organization

  9. WARMING BY 2100, C DEGREES World Meteorological Organization

  10. SAHEL DROUGHT 1850-2050 World Meteorological Organization

  11. Annual European summer temperatures Probability of severe heatwaves 4 3 2 1 0 Annual average Smoothed trend Model – natural factors only Summer 2003 2.3°C hotter than 1961-1990 average Summer 2003 value In central Europe 30 000 excess deaths and large loss of harvest Temperature anomaly (wrt 1961-90) °C 1900 1950 2000 World Meteorological Organization

  12. European 2003 summer temperatures: normal by 2040s, cool by 2060s 2060s observations HadCM3 Medium-High (SRES A2) 2040s 2003 Temperature anomaly (wrt 1961-90) °C World Meteorological Organization

  13. WATER STRESS CHANGE BY 2080 World Meteorological Organization

  14. CHANGE OF FARMLAND AREA BYs 2080 World Meteorological Organization

  15. MELTING OF SNOW/ICE AT KILIMANJARO World Meteorological Organization

  16. IPCC 1995: +0.13 to 0.94 m IPCC 2001: +0.09 to 0.88 m SEA LEVEL RISE World Meteorological Organization

  17. Intensification of tropical cyclones already observed, further intensification expected World Meteorological Organization

  18. ECONOMICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE; STERN 10/2006 World Meteorological Organization

  19. ADAPTATION PROJECTS - Downscaling of GCM data, + country profiles => Info for national planning/decision making Change in water availability by 2020 World Meteorological Organization

  20. NEED FOR NEW SERVICES World Meteorological Organization

  21. Agriculture as share of GDP (2000) World Meteorological Organization

  22. Kenya’s97-98 flood & 1998-2000 drought Hirji et al, World Bank (2003) World Meteorological Organization

  23. World Meteorological Organization

  24. Mozambique’s2000 floods Real GDP - 23% World Meteorological Organization

  25. rainfall affects growth…. the case of Zimbabwe World Meteorological Organization

  26. SEASONAL AND SHORT-TERM FORECASTS MAY BE USED FOR ENHANCING AGICULTURAL PRODUCTITY CHALLENGE: RIGHT INFORMATION TO RIGHT CUSTOMERS AT RIGHT TIME World Meteorological Organization

  27. Choléra High Risk of Re-emergence of Infectious Diseases Connection with El Niño/La Niña & seasonal weather WEATHER INFO => PREVENTIVE MEANS • World Population at risk: 2 to 3 billions • Human Mortality per yr: 3.5 to 4.5 millions with ½ under 5 yrs (~ 5 millions due to AIDS) • Animal Mortality per yr: 10 to 15 millions Dengue Meningitus World Meteorological Organization

  28. AIR POLLUTION SURVEYS & SERVICES => IMPACT ON HEALTH World Meteorological Organization

  29. FUTURE SOURCES OF ENERGY: POTENTIAL FOR WATER, WIND & SOLAR ENERGY World Meteorological Organization

  30. TOURISM/WEATHER/CLIMATE CHANGE Slide 12 World Meteorological Organization

  31. Challenges of the NMHSs World Meteorological Organization

  32. THE NMHS’s CHALLENGES • Tendency to cut public sector funding, also NMHSs • Difficulties in showing the economic benefits of services and infrastructure • Staffing problems; less competitive salaries, government reduction policies/retirement, education and training challenges World Meteorological Organization

  33. THE NMHS’s CHALLENGES • Infrastructure maintenance problems: costs, spare parts • How to benefit from regional and global supporting infrastructures: • global forecast models: ECMWF, NCEP, UKMO… • Satellite data: EUMETSAT, NOAA, CMA, Meteor… • Climate model data for national adaptation studies • Data/model availability policies World Meteorological Organization

  34. THE NMHS’s CHALLENGES • Budget structures/data & service policies: Cost recovery from e.g. aviation, free/partially free data • Service market development in e.g. European Union • Private/public sector roles in the future • Global weather market evolution • HOW WMO CAN SUPPORT THE NMHSs AND SUSTAINABILITY OF INFRASTRUCTURE?? World Meteorological Organization

  35. WHAT DCR WILL OFFER? • Resource mobilising for development projects: • Disaster warning & mitigation • Adaptation to climate change • Agricultural productivity • Health: weather dependent diseases, air pollution • Water resources • Water, solar & wind energy potential • Office for Resource Mobilizing: funding opportunities, partnerships, advocacy 2. Expertise for calculating the socio-economic value of meteorological infrastructure & services World Meteorological Organization

  36. WHAT DCR WILL OFFER? 3. Advocacy of NMHSs at government level 4. Emphasis on LDC & SIDS countries: LDC Office 5. Country profile database: - global status and needs - WMO activities: plans & projects 6. Voluntary Co-operation Programme: small-scale development activities & emergency assistance World Meteorological Organization

  37. WHAT DCR WILL OFFER? 7. High-impact meetings to the Members, needs e.g.: - effective management of NHMSs - the NMHSs and development (e.g. MDGs) - customer orientation: new services & know-how 8. Global presence - status and needs of the members - regional & national funding opportunities - regional & national partnerships World Meteorological Organization

  38. WMO OFFICES EU Geneva UN HQ Bahrain Abuja San Hose Nairobi Apia Asuncion World Meteorological Organization

  39. REGIONAL STRATEGIES R.A. VI Europe (49 Members) R.A. IV North America, Central America And the Caribbean (25 Members) R.A. II Asia (35 Members) R.A. I Africa (56 Members) R.A. V South-West Pacific (22 Members) R.A.III South America (13 Members) World Meteorological Organization

  40. Thank You For more information please contact: Prof. Petteri Taalas Director, Development Co-operation and Regional Activities Department World Meteorological Organization Tel. 41.22.730.8325 Email. ptaalas@wmo.int World Meteorological Organization

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