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The Mega-FTA’s

The Mega-FTA’s. David Salmonsen American Farm Bureau Federation. T he 2014 Ag Trade Policy Agenda. Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) Current Negotiations Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) Trans Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) WTO Negotiations – Doha and beyond.

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The Mega-FTA’s

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  1. The Mega-FTA’s David Salmonsen American Farm Bureau Federation

  2. The 2014 Ag Trade Policy Agenda • Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) • Current Negotiations • Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) • Trans Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership • (TTIP) • WTO Negotiations – Doha and beyond

  3. Top 10 Ag Markets 2013 US Ag Exports Billion $ Source: USDA/FAS/GATS

  4. Top 10 Ag Markets 2013 US Ag Exports FTA Countries Billion $ Source: USDA/FAS/GATS

  5. Top 10 Ag Markets 2013 US Ag Exports FTA Countries FTAs under Negotiation Billion $ Source: USDA/FAS/GATS

  6. Top 10 Ag Markets 2013 US Ag Exports FTA Countries FTAs under Negotiation Open market Billion $ Source: USDA/FAS/GATS

  7. Top 10 Ag Markets 2013 US Ag Exports FTA Countries FTAs under Negotiation Greater China Source: USDA/FAS/GATS Billion $

  8. U.S. Ag Markets over $100 million 2013 US Ag Exports $ “long tail” distribution Source: USDA/FAS/GATS

  9. US Ag Exports Trade Agreements and Export Performance Source: FAS Global Agriculture Trade System Note: China reference is WTO Accession

  10. TPA Trade Promotion Authority Legislative Tool to Give Negotiating Credibility • Background: • Congress and the Administration have split role on trade: Congress is in charge of revenues and tariffs, the Administration is in charge of negotiating with other countries. • After Congress re-opened the Kennedy Round agreement and made changes to the final deal, the United States resorted to “Fast Track” authority to negotiate with credibility. • Key elements: • Congress identifies trade objectives and scope of negotiations • Procedures established for Administration to consult and share information • Congress agrees to an up-or-down vote -- no amendments or delays

  11. TPA House Trade Votes 215

  12. TPA Trade Agreements: US Ag Exports US Ag Imports US Trade Surplus Korea and Colombia FTAs Billion $

  13. U.S. Ag Exports by Destination. 2013 TPA With TTP and TTIP, over 50% of our current markets will be in FTAs. New TTIP and TPP Countries 19% China, Taiwan, and HK 22% Other 20% Other 42% Current FTA Partners 39% Source: USDA/FAS/GATS

  14. TPP Trans Pacific Partnership Red: new U.S. FTA partners Source: Wainio USDA/ER. From World Bank (http://data.worldbank.org/country/) and the United Nations Comtrade database.

  15. TPP Trans Pacific Partnership: Japan An important market in 2013, despite current barriers: #1 U.S. market: beef and pork #2 U.S. market: corn, rice, and vegetables #3 U.S. market: wheat and fruit #4 U.S. market: oilseeds and wine #6 U.S. market: dairy #7 U.S. market: nuts

  16. TPP Trans Pacific Partnership Japan – U.S. Tariff Comparison % Simple average, using DDA ad valorem equivalents

  17. TTIP Trans Atlantic Trade & Investment Partnership U.S. – EU Ag Trade Balance Billion $

  18. TTIP Trans Atlantic Trade & Investment Partnership EU U.S. Population: 509 million 316 million GDP (PPP): $15.8 trillion $16.7 trillion per capita GDP: $34,500 $52,800 Ag as share of GDP: 1.8% 1.1% Ag as a share of labor: 5.2% 0.7% Value of Ag Exports: $165 billion $144 billion Ag as share of Exports: 7% 9.2% Value of Ag Imports: $140 billion $104 billion Ag as a share of Imports 6% 4.9% Source: World Fact Book, USDA/FAS/GATS, European Commission

  19. TTIP Trans Atlantic Trade & Investment Partnership EU – U.S. Tariff Comparison % Simple average, using DDA ad valorem equivalents

  20. TTIP Trans Atlantic Trade & Investment Partnership U.S. – EU Ag Trade Balance: Billion $

  21. TTIP ISSUES Beef - Hormones Pork - Ractopamine Poultry – Pathogen Reduction Treatments GMO’s – Approval Process Geographic Indications

  22. WTO World Trade Organization • Bali: • Trade Facilitation Agreement • Key Agriculture Agreements: • Public Stockholding for Food Security Purposes • Understanding on TRQ Administration • Ministerial Statement on Next Steps on Doha negotiations • “To further demonstrate this commitment (to the Doha negotiations), we instruct the Trade Negotiations Committee to prepare within the next 12 months a clearly defined work program on the remaining Doha Development Agenda issues.”

  23. ActionsTPA-in 2015 if TPP closeTPP – in 2015, if…TTIP - ???

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