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North American Equity Research June 17, 2013

North American Equity Research June 17, 2013. Airfreight and Surface Transportation. Presentation to the MCSAC Subcommittee on CSA. Airfreight and Surface Transportation Tom Wadewitz AC 212-622-6461 thomas.r.wadewitz@jpmorgan.com Bloomberg: JPMA WADEWITZ<GO> J.P . Morgan Securities LLC

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North American Equity Research June 17, 2013

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  1. North American Equity Research June 17, 2013 Airfreight and Surface Transportation Presentation to the MCSAC Subcommittee on CSA Airfreight and Surface Transportation Tom Wadewitz AC 212-622-6461 thomas.r.wadewitz@jpmorgan.com Bloomberg: JPMA WADEWITZ<GO> J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Michael Weinz, CFA 212-622-6383 michael.r.weinz@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Alex Johnson 212-622-6513 alexander.k.johnson@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC See the end pages of this presentation for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
  2. Transport Rating and Price Target Summary Source: Bloomberg and J.P. Morgan estimates. As of June 12, 2013.
  3. Transport Demand Trends Rail Carloadings Show Modest Y/Y Growth Total Intermodal Data through 2013 Week 22 (ended June 1, 2013). Source: Association of American Railroads.
  4. Transport Demand Trends Rail Carloadings Show Modest Y/Y Growth (Cont’d) Industrial Automotive Data through 2013 Week 22 (ended June 1, 2013). Source: Association of American Railroads.
  5. Transport Demand Trends Cass Shipments Index Shows Modest Y/Y Contraction in April and May Data through May 2013. Source: Cass Information Systems.
  6. ISM Data Provides a Read to Transport Activity ISM – Manufacturing Shows Contraction in May Orders Minus Inventories Was Also Weak in May Sources: Institute for Supply Management via Bloomberg.
  7. Truckload Pricing Trends Dry Van Pricing Ex-Fuel Shows Modest Y/Y Growth in March and April Over the Past 12 to 24 Months Pricing Across Truck Types Is Roughly Unchanged Sources: Truckloadrate.com via Bloomberg.
  8. Truckload Capacity Analysis Rolling Capacity of Over-the-Road Class 8 Tractor Fleet Assuming a 5-Year Life 2012 capacity rose 3.6%, assuming a 5-year life Rolling Capacity of Over-the-Road Class 8 Tractor Fleet Assuming a 7-Year Life 2012 capacity contracted 3.2%, assuming a 7-year life Source: ACT and J.P. Morgan estimates. Data through March 2013.
  9. Truckload Capacity Analysis Class 8 Tractor Sales Are Likely to Be Modestly Lower in 2013 Source: ACT and J.P. Morgan estimates. Data through March 2013.
  10. Truckload Capacity Analysis Truckload Fleet Size (# of Tractors) Fleet Size at Large Carriers Has Been Declining Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.
  11. Transport Stock Performance 2013 YTD Performance for the Transportation Stocks through June 12, 2013 (intraday) Source: Bloomberg and J.P. Morgan Estimates. As of June 12, 2013 (intraday).
  12. CSA Analysis Among Truckload Carriers: Western Express, Marten, and CRST Malone (Flatbed) Are Deficient on 2 or More BASIC Scores Source: Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration.
  13. CSA Analysis Among LTL, Small Package, and Drayage Carriers: Only Roadrunner Is Deficient on 2 or More BASIC Scores Source: Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration.
  14. CSA Analysis BASIC Score Comparison: Unsafe Driving – Performance Threshold of 60% or 65% Source: Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration.
  15. CSA Analysis BASIC Score Comparison: Hours of Service (HOS) Compliance – Perf. Threshold of 60% or 65% Source: Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration.
  16. CSA Analysis BASIC Score Comparison: Driver Fitness – Performance Threshold of 75% or 80% Source: Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration.
  17. CSA Analysis BASIC Score Comparison: Controlled Substances and Alcohol – Perf. Threshold of 75% or 80% Source: Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration.
  18. CSA Analysis BASIC Score Comparison: Vehicle Maintenance – Performance Threshold of 75% or 80% Source: Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration.
  19. CSA Analysis Comparison of Inspection Rates (Total per Driver) Source: Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration.
  20. CSA Analysis Comparison of Crash Ratios (Total per Driver) – Score Is Out of 100 Source: Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration.
  21. CSA Analysis Comparison of Injuries or Fatalities Ratios (Total per Driver) – Score Is Out of 100 Source: Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration.
  22. CSA Analysis Comparison of Vehicle Out-of-Service Orders Issued as a Result of an Inspection Source: Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration.
  23. CSA Analysis Comparison of Driver Out-of-Service Orders Issued as a Result of an Inspection Source: Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration.
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