Quick Check 1:

2. Quick Check 1: • Who is more likely to vote for Mitt Romney? Why? • White, evangelical minister • African-American Baptist minister • Cuban immigrant living in Florida working minimum wage • Middle-class Hispanic-American housewife

3. Quick Check 2: • Who is most likely to vote for Barack Obama? • Upper income Jewish male rabbi • Lower income African-American mother • Middle income Asian American protestant high school student • White male who did not graduate from high school

4. Public Opinion Policy

5. Voter Turn Out How to get to the polls

6. Elections Every 2 Years • House – 2 years • Senate – 6 years (2 years, 1/3 elected) • President – 4 years

7. Historical qualifications • Religion (eliminated by states) • Property (eliminated by states) • Race (eliminated by 15th Amendment) • Sex (eliminated by 19th Amendment)

8. Historical qualifications • Income (eliminated by 24th Amendment) • Literacy (eliminated by Voting Rights Act of 1965) • Minimum Age of 21 (eliminated by 26th Amendment)

9. Current Qualifications • ALL SET BY STATES!! • Citizenship, residency, age, registration

11. Comparison • US • ~60% in presidential elections • ~40% in midterm elections • Even lower in state elections • Declining since 1960 • Western European • ~90% turn out rate

13. Comparison • We have no compulsory voting • No fines, no same day registration, dual party system allows for fewer choice

14. Reasons for Low Turn Out • Institutional Barriers • How many can you name?

15. Answers. . . • Registration • Ballot Fatigue • Excessive # of Elections • Type of election • Difficulty of Attaining absentee ballot • Age—youth are the worst

16. Reasons for Low Turn Out • Political Reasons: • Lack of political efficacy • Dissatisfaction with candidates, parties, etc. • Lack of strong 2 party competition • Weaknesses of parties in mobilizing voters

17. Voter Behavior Factors Affecting

18. Democrat Republican Democrat + Swing Republican Democratic Republican Democratic Republican

19. Geography, Time • Solid South—traditionally Democratic, trending Republican • Coattail effect • Critical Elections “realigning” • Long term change in political alignment

20. Party ID • Probably second strongest predictor of voting behavior • Split ticket voting • Independents • Rising quickly • Tend to be young, college educated, above average incomes Retrospective/Prospective Voting

21. Who votes, Who doesn’t, Who cares? • Characteristics of those likely to vote • Level of educational achievement greatest predictor of voting • Cuts across all other factors • Income—rich vs. poor • Age—older vote more than young • Race—whites more likely than African Americans more likely than Hispanics

22. Who votes, Who doesn’t, Who cares? • Does it matter? • Yes—class bias—older, richer, white people dominate • No—nonvoters are demographically different, not politically different

23. Demographics • Sex • Female / male = Dem, GOP • Race • More likely to vote Dem, African Americans—most loyal Dem voters • Social Class • Upper = GOP; Lower = Dem • Religion • Protestant = GOP; Catholic = Dem; Jewish = Dem.