Chapter Five: Public Opinion and Political Socialization

1. Chapter Five:Public Opinion and Political Socialization

2. Public Opinion andthe Models of Democracy • Public Opinion: the collected attitudes of citizens concerning a given issue or question

3. Public Opinion andthe Models of Democracy • Characteristics of public opinion • The public’s attitudes toward a government policy can vary over time, often dramatically • Public opinion places boundaries on allowable types of public policy • If asked, people are willing to register opinions on matters outside their expertise • Governments tend to respond to public opinion • The government sometimes does not do what the people want

4. Public Opinion andthe Models of Democracy • Sampling a Few, Predicting to Everyone • Statistical sampling theory: a sample of individuals selected by chance from any population is representative of that population • Sampling theory does not claim that a sample exactly matches the population, only that it reflects the population with some predictable degree of accuracy.

5. Public Opinion andthe Models of Democracy • Three factors determine the accuracy of a sample: • How the sample is selected: randomly • The size of the sample: the larger the sample, the more accurately it represents the population • The amount of variation in the population: the greater the population variation, the greater the chance that one random sample will differ from another.

6. Gallup Poll Accuracy

7. Public Opinion andthe Models of Democracy • Assumptions about the role of public opinion in democratic government • The majoritarian model: the government should do what a majority of the public wants • The pluralist model: requires that government institutions allow free expression of opinion by “minority publics”

8. The Distribution of Public Opinion • Government must analyze the shape and the stability of the distribution of public opinion • Stable distribution: shows little change over time • Shape of the Distribution • The shape of the opinion distribution depicts the pattern of all the responses when counted and plotted • The 3 patterns of distribution: • Skewed Distribution: An asymmetrical but generally bell-shaped distribution (of opinions); its most frequent response, lies off to one side • Bimodal Distribution: A distribution (of opinions) that shows two responses being chosen about as frequently as each other • Normal Distribution: A symmetrical bell-shaped distribution (of opinions) centered on a single mode, or most frequent response.

9. Three Distributions of Opinion

10. Political Socialization • Political Socialization:the complex process by which people acquire their political values.

11. Political Socialization • The Agents of Early Socialization • Two fundamental principles characterize early learning • The primacy principle: what is learned first is learned best • The structuring principle: what is learned first structures later learning • Agents that structure early socialization include • The family • School • Community and peers

12. Political Socialization • Continuing Socialization • Peer groups assume greater importance is promoting political awareness and shaping opinions • Older Americans rely on newspapers and television news for political information • Younger Americans are more likely to rely on radio, magazines or the Internet for political information

13. Political Socialization,Age, and Public Opinion

14. Social Groups and Political Values • People with similar backgrounds tend to develop similar political opinions • Characteristics that shape political opinions • Education • Income • Race and ethnicity • Religion • Gender

15. Deviations of Group Opinion from National Opinion on Two Questions of Order and Equality

16. From Values to Ideology • The Degree of Ideological Thinking in Public Opinion • Education leads to increased ideological thinking • The extent of ideological thinking in the U.S. is low

17. From Values to Ideology • The Quality of Ideological Thinking in Public Opinion • In many people’s minds, Liberals are associated with change • In many people’s minds, Conservatives are associated with tradition • More helpful to think about tradeoffs; • Liberals are more willing to trade freedom for equality • Conservatives are more wiling to trade freedom for order

18. From Values to Ideology • Ideological Types in the United States • Conservative responses are the most common pattern • Communitarian responses are the 2nd most common pattern

19. Respondents Classifiedby Ideological Tendencies

20. Forming Political Opinions • Political Knowledge • Political knowledge is not randomly distributed • Women, African Americans, the poor, and the young tend to be less knowledgeable about politics than men, white, the affluent, and older citizens • The collective opinion of the public may still be interpreted as stable and meaningful

21. Forming Political Opinions • Costs, Benefits, and Cues • Self-interest principle: the implication that people choose what benefits them personally • Plays an obvious role in how people form opinions on government policies

22. Forming Political Opinions • Political Leadership • Public opinion is molded b political leaders, journalists, and policy experts • Politicians give cues to members of the public • Issue framing: the way that politicians or interest group leaders defines an issue when presenting it to others