U.S. Politics

1. U.S. Politics Public Opinion and Socialization

3. Overview • Public Opinion: Definition • Measuring Public Opinion • Survey Design • Scientific vs. “Unscientific” polls • Variables to be measured • Factors Shaping Public Opinion • Importance of Public Opinion

4. Definition Polling and Politics Iraq War Economic Stimulus Package

5. Definition • Public Opinion: Aggregate of individual attitudes or beliefs shared by some portion of the adult population

6. Measuring Public Opinion • Need to add and combine these individual opinions so that we can then determine what the public as a whole believes • Collect data in a scientifically rigorous fashion

7. Survey Design • Identify target population • Select Random Sample • Write Questions • Conduct Poll • Analyze Data

8. Survey Design • Identify target population • Who’s opinion are you interested in measuring? • Select Random Sample • Write Questions • Conduct Poll • Analyze Data

9. Survey Design • Identify target population • Select Random Sample • every person in the target population has an equal and known probability of being included in the survey • Write Questions • Conduct Poll • Analyze Data

10. Survey Design • Identify target population • Select Random Sample • Write Questions • ensure that questions are fair, non-leading, and clear • Conduct Poll • Analyze Data

11. Survey Design • Identify target population • Select Random Sample • Write Questions • Conduct Poll • contact those selected in the random sample • Analyze Data

12. Survey Design • Identify target population • Select Random Sample • Write Questions • Conduct Poll • Analyze Data • Intepret what the numbers mean

13. Scientific vs “Unscientific” Polls • Key is in the random sample • “random”: every person in the target population has an equal and known probability of being included in the survey • Allows us to calculate the margin of error and the confidence interval

14. Scientific vs “Unscientific” Polls • Margin of Error: How much the sample reports differ from the total population +/- 3.5% to about +/- 6% 45% with a 4% margin of error 45% 49% 41%

15. Scientific vs “Unscientific” Polls • Confidence Interval: How sure we are in the results .01 to .05

16. Scientific vs “Unscientific” Polls • Need to be able to determine how much your sample differs from the total population, and how sure you are in the results • If no random sample, no way to determine that

17. Variables to Measure • Intensity • Salience • Consensus • Divisiveness • Change StronglyAgree Agree Disagree StronglyDisagree

18. Variables to Measure • Intensity • Salience • Consensus • Divisiveness • Change Don’t Know Yes No

19. Variables to Measure • Intensity • Salience • Consensus • Divisiveness • Change Disagree Agree

20. Variables to Measure • Intensity • Salience • Consensus • Divisiveness • Change Yes No

21. Variables to Measure • Intensity • Salience • Consensus • Divisiveness • Change % agreeing t1 t2 t3 t4 t5

22. Education Media Family Race Political Party Income Religion Current Events Gender Geography Factors Shaping Public Opinion

23. Importance of Public Opinion • Connection to Democracy • Shaping Public Policy • Informing political leaders • Controllinig political leaders