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Cabinet Termination

Cabinet Termination. Are cabinets unstable? Italy, French Fourth Republic Germany, Luxemburg, Austria Explanations: Party system Coalition attributes Structure of the bargaining system ‘Events’. The End. A cabinet ends with: A change in membership A formal resignation

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Cabinet Termination

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  1. Cabinet Termination • Are cabinets unstable? • Italy, French Fourth Republic • Germany, Luxemburg, Austria • Explanations: • Party system • Coalition attributes • Structure of the bargaining system • ‘Events’

  2. The End • A cabinet ends with: • A change in membership • A formal resignation • A change in prime minister • An election

  3. Coalition Stability & Regime Attributes • Various factors: • Number of Parties • Size of Party System • Presence of Anti-System Parties • Ideological Polarization • Oppositional Influence • Salience of Elections • Formal Investiture Requirement

  4. Coalition Stability & Regime Attributes • Clear differences between countries in terms of stability • Appears to be unrelated to the number of parties in the countries • Moreover, changes in the number of parties within countries does not have an influence on duration • Strom: Salience of elections (and investiture requirement and oppositional influence)

  5. Coalition Attributes and Cabinet Stability • Majority/Minority/Surplus Cabinets • Ideological compatible • Findings: • Majority and minimal winning cabinets • Does not explain differences between countries • Ideology does not appear to matter

  6. Bargaining Environment • Polarity of party system • Uni- & Bipolar stable • Centre vs. off-centre • Multipolar unstable • Stability: Luxemburg, Ireland, Austria, Germany, Iceland, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Belgium, Netherlands, Denmark 1971-87, Belgium 1971-1987, Finland, Italy

  7. Events • Previous explanations are ‘deterministic’ • The events approach argues that unexpected events are important • An ‘event’ causes cabinet termination with some probability • Compatibility with bargaining system explanation • King et. al.

  8. Who gets what? • Office Payoffs • Cabinet Portfolios • Non-cabinet Positions • Patronage • Ministerial Portfolios • Fairness/proportionality • Role of policy

  9. Who gets what? • Ministerial Portfolios • Close relationship between number of seats in legislatures and cabinet seats • Small party bias • Surprising? Bargaining Power? • Uni- and Bipolar systems best predicted by proportionality. Why?

  10. Who gets what? • Ministerial Portfolios • Bargaining power and ‘big’ portfolios • Portfolio preference • Policy Payoffs • Parties manifestos • Coalition agreements

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