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Overview

From Ideas to Action: Clean Energy Solutions for Asia that Address Climate Change Peter du Pont, PhD, Chief of Party, ECO-Asia Clean Development and Climate Program Prepared for International Conference on Asia’s Emerging Response to Climate Change Bangkok, Thailand 23 November 2007. Overview.

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Overview

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  1. From Ideas to Action:Clean Energy Solutions for Asiathat Address Climate Change Peter du Pont, PhD, Chief of Party,ECO-Asia Clean Development and Climate ProgramPrepared for International Conference onAsia’s Emerging Response to Climate ChangeBangkok, Thailand23 November 2007

  2. Overview From Ideas to Action: regional analysis of clean energy options Overview of Thailand Country Reporty Overview of new regional program on clean energy

  3. ECO-Asia Clean Development and Climate Program Geographic Coverage China India Indonesia Philippines Thailand Vietnam These 6 countries account for 96% of the GDP of Asia’s developing countries

  4. USAID-funded review of clean energy priorities in Asia Objectives Identify clean energy priorities – technologies, sectors, and initiatives Identify opportunities for regional action Methodology organized “listening tours” with 220 key energy stakeholders in the 6 countries researched and prepared more than 300 profiles on clean energy institutions, policies, programs prepared in-depth country reports on the clean energy opportunities in the 6 countries

  5. Comparative Evaluation of Fuel Options Supply-Side Energy Coal (CCT and carbon storage) Petroleum Natural Gas (incl. methane capture) Renewables (biomass, wind, solar, small hydro, geothermal, biofuels) Nuclear Energy Efficiency Power generation and transmission efficiency End-use efficiency (buildings, appliances, lighting, industry, transport, etc.) 5

  6. DEMAND DRIVERSEconomic growth and increased incomes are leading to large increases in energy demand Source: APERC 2006

  7. UNTAPPED EFFICIENCYBut regional experience shows significant potential for efficiency improvements Efficiency gains in Korean appliances – 1993 to 2000 Source: Sun-Keun Lee, 2001

  8. OIL AND ENERGY SECURITYSoutheast Asia will import 70% of its oil by 2030 Imported Oil as Share of Total Oil Consumption Source: APEC 2006

  9. COAL RELIANCE (1)Coal is the “fuel of choice” for the next 15-20 years to meet demand Primary Energy Mix for Asian Countries, 1980 to 2005 Hydro The share of primary energy from coal has risen from 43% in 1980, to 48% in 2005, and is projected to reach 51% in 2030. Nuclear Coal Gas Oil Note: This data includes all of Asia, not just developing Asia Source: BP Statistics 2006

  10. COAL RELIANCE (2)Share of coal increasing dramatically in India, ASEAN Note: Thailand data are for 2021, not 2030

  11. Criteria pollutant levels in Asian megacities LOCAL AIR POLLUTIONFossil Fuels Lead to High Particulate Levels Local air pollution has been linked to more than 500,000 premature deaths annually in Asia (WHO)

  12. INCREASING CO2 EMISSIONS Developing Asia’s CO2 Emissions Will Increase 4-Fold Current 26 billion metric tons CO2 2030 40 billion metric tons CO2 Source: APERC, TERI

  13. Projected CO2 Emissions by Sector (2002 - 2030) 2030 2002 ELECTRICITY IS MAJOR SOURCEMore than half of CO2 emissions from power plants Source: APERC, TERI

  14. What is the Answer? There is no Single Silver Bullet • Coal • Expected nearly 4-fold increase in consumption by 2030, will lead to 13 billion metric tons of annual CO2 by 2030 • Petroleum • Import dependency to increase drastically (exporters turn into importers; others will import 70-90% of their needs) • Natural Gas • By 2030, countries will import between 40-75 percent of their needs. • Nuclear • Even with massive investment, nuclear projected to supply only approx. 4-8% of primary energy needs by 2030 (China, India, Thailand, and Vietnam) • Renewable Sources • Even with major expansion, current estimates project renewables to account for 5-10% of future energy needs by 2030

  15. Estimated energy delivery costs by clean energy type Typical cost of avoided electricity generation (about 6-7 US cents/kWh) The “least cost” options are energy efficiency, and they cost ¼ to ½ as much as building a new power plant Sources: Compiled from Sims et al, 2003; Sawin 2004; LBNL, 2005 and IEA, 2006

  16. Costs of carbon reductions by clean energy option A number of options can reduce CO2 emissions at no net cost

  17. Ranking of clean energy options for regional cooperation

  18. Top 6 priority clean energy technologies and sectors for regional cooperation Energy-efficient lighting and appliances Clean coal technologies Renewable energy technologies (esp. onshore wind energy and biomass-fired electricity) Energy-efficiency in the transport sector Biofuels for transportation Methane capture

  19. Implementing Just These Options Can Reduce Future Emissions from Asia’s Developing Economies by 25%

  20. Overview of Thailand Country Report

  21. Thailand Primary Energy Demand by Sources Renewables (8%) Hydro (0.3%) Gas (25%) Oil (40%) Coal (25%) Source: APERC, 2006

  22. Forecast Electricity Supply by Fuel Type Source: EGAT PDP (4 June 2007)

  23. Share of Energy-Related CO2 Emissions by Sector Residential (1%) * Transport (26%) Industry (28%) Transformation other than electricity (5%) Electricity Generation (40%) *Note: no data available for commercial Source: APERC, 2006

  24. Vehicular-Related Emission of PM in Bangkok(kilotons of PM10) Source: ADB, 2006

  25. Successful Implementation of DSM in Thailand Source: DSM in Thailand: The EGAT Experience. Mrs. Napaporn Phumaraphand, DSM & Planning Division, Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT). Presented at workshop on Energy Efficiency in Power Distribution and End Use Project, Jakarta, Indonesia. 5 June., 2006

  26. Thailand Benchmarked Against U.S. Utilities(Cumulative Annual Energy Savings as a Percentage of Annual Utility Energy Sales) Source: EGAT data for Thailand. U.S. data from ACEEE. A Nationwide Assessment of Utility Sector Energy Efficiency. August 2006.

  27. Cost Comparison of Clean Energy Options Demand Side Measures Supply Side Measures

  28. Clean Energy Potential (1 of 2) • Up grade standards for the labeled appliances as well as to add more appliances such as hot water pot and freezer • Scale up EE programs and incentive for industry • Building energy codes • The government plans to utilize more RE for heat and power, up to 19% of TPES in 2016 • Bio-fuels and waste to energy • Improve efficiency of existing power plants by using CHP • Financing through tax incentive

  29. Clean Energy Potential (2 of 2) • EE and DSM programs are the most cost-effective • Labeling scheme for energy consumption of new vehicles • Clean coal technology but has yet be accepted by the public • Nuclear power is being considered as alternative source of power in order to decrease reliance on NG and to reduce GHG

  30. Need for GHG Reporting Capacity Building • Bureau of Energy Research, DEDE, is responsible for estimation of air pollutant emission (CO2, CO, NOx, CH4 and SO2) from energy consumption based on IPCC Guidelines for GHG Inventories • The Climate Change Coordinating unit is responsible for the overall GHG inventories. • Needs include such as; development of coefficient values to calculate GHG of each activity, e.g., rice and pig farming; policy planning guideline on how to mitigate GHG, e.g., if a lot of methane from rice farming is a concern, then, how would the Ministry of Agriculture plan for rice farming area?

  31. The USAID ECO-Asia Clean Development and Climate Program

  32. ECO-Asia Clean Development and Climate Program Findings of the Regional Analysis A number of viable, low-cost options are ready for immediate implementation Implementation often limited due to lack of awareness, or technical, institutional, and financial barriers Program Objective Promote market transformation toward clean energy development in Asia Activities increase policy and market incentives mobilize and facilitate clean energy financing share knowledge to accelerate deployment

  33. ECO-Asia Clean Development and Climate Program Promotes Market Transformation for Clean Energy Development in Asia • Increase policy and market incentives • Mobilize and facilitate clean energy financing • Share best practices and knowledge to accelerate deployment Promotes Partnerships and Improves Regional Cooperation • Leverage resources of key regional partners – APP,ADB, ASEAN, and APEC Supports National Commitments • Ensure commitments and ownership at national level • Address national clean energy needs and priorities Geographic Scope: China, India, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam

  34. Clean Development and Climate Change Program Areas and Outcomes

  35. Thank You!

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