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Breogán Gonda, Engineer Montevideo, June 2004

Paradigm Changes Why?, What?, How?, When?. Breogán Gonda, Engineer Montevideo, June 2004. Paradigm Changes. Every human activity has, at any given time, a paradigm that determines “how things are done” (or perceived). Paradigm Changes. What happens when new ideas

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Breogán Gonda, Engineer Montevideo, June 2004

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  1. Paradigm Changes Why?, What?, How?, When? Breogán Gonda, Engineer Montevideo, June 2004

  2. Paradigm Changes Every human activity has, at any given time, a paradigm that determines “how things are done” (or perceived)

  3. Paradigm Changes What happens when new ideas require a paradigm shift?

  4. Paradigm Changes in Science “Those who are working under the umbrella of a certain paradigm, many times find evidence that shows the falsehood of that paradigm, but that evidence is systematically discarded” Kuhn, History of Scientific Revolutions

  5. INNOVATION

  6. Causes of productivity increase in the US, last 50 years (annual average is 2.2) Rational Exuberance - Michael J. Mandel

  7. Improvement: innovation within the paradigm

  8. Paradigm Shift

  9. Who produces the great innovations in Information Technology? • Large corporate labs? • Universities? • Small companies?

  10. Paradigm Shifts Paradigm life cycle: • Better idea (another paradigm is in force) • Important progress goes unrecognized • The new paradigm is recognized • Important improvements with small costs • Small improvements with big costs • Saturation

  11. Paradigm Life Cycle ACCUMULATED COST ACCUMULATED PRODUCT COST PRODUCT

  12. Paradigm Life Cycle • Historical cycles keep growing shorter • People involved • Means to manage information • Connection

  13. Some Examples

  14. Writing I: Pictorial Representations • Pictogram Ideogram – Sumerian Alphabet (Mesopotamia): 4000 BC • Egyptian Hieroglyphics: 3100 BC 400 AD • Hittite Pictographic System: 1500 AC 600 BC

  15. Writing II: Alphabets • First alphabet: 1700-1500 BC Syria and Palestine (22 consonants, no vowels, right to left) • Phoenicians: simple alphabet: 1000 AC • Greek Alphabet: 1000 - 900 AC (24 consonants, first vowels) • The Greek start writing left to right: 500 BC ΣΦΨΩ αβγδε ζηθλμξπ ρςσφω ΓΔΛΠ abcdefghijklmnñopqrstuvwxyz ACCDEFGHIJKLMNÑOPQRSTUWXYZ

  16. Writing III: Replication • Ts`ai Lun – paper: 105 AD • China: printing press (characters carved in wooden boards): 593 AD • Fong in-Wan – movable types: 932 AD

  17. Writing III: Replication - Guttenberg: 1447 AD

  18. Writing III: Replication Smart - Rotary press: 1846

  19. Writing IV: Composition - Mergenthaler: 1884

  20. Writing IV: Composition • MicroPro: Word Master 1976, WordStar 1978 • Microsoft: 1984 Word for Mac • Microsoft: 1989 Word for Windows • Microsoft: 1997 Word for Windows

  21. Industrialization, de-industrialization, reindustrialization • Steam engine • Savery (1698) • Newcomen (1712) • Watt (1769) • SUBSTITUTION FORCE

  22. Industrialization, de-industrialization, reindustrialization Daimler-Benz, 1893 AUTOMOBILE

  23. Industrialization, de-industrialization, reindustrialization • Mass manufacturing • Ford – Taylor 1904 • INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT

  24. Industrialization, de-industrialization, reindustrialization • Mass production: the most powerful nations develop their manufacturing industries • Manufacturing becomes the main activity • Industrially successful countries dominate the world • Impoverishment of other countries

  25. Industrialization, de-industrialization, reindustrialization • Labor costs • Robots • Relocation of factories to low labor cost countries

  26. Industrialization, de-industrialization, reindustrialization

  27. Industrialization, de-industrialization, reindustrialization • Agriculture dominates the economy • Steam engine (1698) - substitutes human labor • Mass manufacturing (1904) – industrial development • Manufacturing starts to dominate the economy (1920) • Total dominance of the industrial powers (1950) • De-industrialization (1980): Manufacturing moves to low labor cost countries • Reindustrialization starts (2004?)

  28. Cellular Telephony I: Communications • Motorola • Ericsson • Nokia

  29. Cellular Telephony II: Usability, digital technology • Nokia • Motorola • Ericsson

  30. Cellular Telephony III: Global Use

  31. Cellular Telephony III: the cellular phone is “also” a phone

  32. Programming Languages • 1945 Machine Language • 1955 Assemblers • 1959 Fortran • 1963 Cobol, Algol • 1968 Pascal • 1980 MANTIS, NATURAL, IDEAL • 1985 Small Talk • 1985 Visual Basic • 1996 Java • 2001 C#

  33. Programming Languages • 1945 Machine Language • 1955 Assemblers • 1959 3rd generation languages • 1980 4th generation languages • 1985 Object oriented languages

  34. Language Productivity

  35. Language Productivity Crisis • New languages? • Outsourcing to low wage countries? • Packages?

  36. Language Productivity Crisis • New languages? • Outsourcing to low-wage countries? • Packages? • New paradigm?

  37. Accumulated Product Needs

  38. WHY? • WHAT? • WHEN? • HOW TO?

  39. Knowledge-based Development

  40. We want our clients to trust us enough so that they can concentrate on their core activity and leave technology in our hands.

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