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The Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT): Progress and Future Plans

The Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT): Progress and Future Plans. 1 February, 2006 IOAS-AOLS Chris Landsea National Hurricane Center, Miami. The Forecasters (us): The Researchers (them):. How to bridge the “valley of death”?.

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The Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT): Progress and Future Plans

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  1. The Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT): Progress and Future Plans 1 February, 2006 IOAS-AOLSChris Landsea National Hurricane Center, Miami

  2. The Forecasters (us): The Researchers (them): How to bridge the “valley of death”?

  3. JHT 1st Round Implemented Projects Satellite intensity and size estimates (Velden/Brueske/DeMaria GFDL Hurricane Model upgrades (Bender; Tuleya) Improved Rainfall Forecasts (Marks) Probability of rapid intensification (Kaplan) New wind prediction scheme (DeMaria/Knaff)

  4. Quantifying tropical cyclone track forecast uncertainty and improving extended-range tropical cyclone track forecasts using an ensemble of dynamical models - Goerss (NRL)

  5. An updated baseline for track forecast skill through five days for the Atlantic and Northeastern and Northwestern Pacific basins -Aberson (HRD)

  6. Objective and automated assessment of operational global forecast model predictions of tropical cyclone formation and life cycle - Harr (NPS)

  7. Improving the validation and prediction of tropical cyclone rainfall – Rogers (HRD)/Pan (EMC) /Black (HRD)/Marchok (GFDL)

  8. Targeting strategies to improve hurricane track forecasts - Majumdar(UM)/Aberson (HRD)/Toth (EMC)

  9. Spiral Analysis Hurricane Isabel 16 Sept 2003 00:15UTC Ring Analysis Combo Analysis Implementation of the Advanced Objective Dvorak Technique (AODT) and Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation (TIE) algorithms at TPC - Kossin (U. WI)/Velden (U. WI)

  10. Improvements in Deterministic and Probabilistic Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Predictions - Knaff (CSU)/DeMaria (NESDIS)

  11. Hurricane IvanExperimental Cumulative Wind Speed ProbabilitiesInitial Time 12 UTC Sun 12 Sep 2004 34 kt 0-120 hr 64 kt New product will be operational in 2006

  12. Developing an inner-core SST cooling predictor for use in SHIPS - Cione (HRD)/Gentemann (RSM)/ Kaplan (HRD)

  13. Development of a rapid intensification index for the eastern Pacific basin - Kaplan (HRD)

  14. Upgrades to the operational GFDL hurricane prediction system - Bender (GFDL)

  15. Improving the GFDL/URI coupled hurricane-ocean model - Ginis (U. RI)

  16. HYCOM Ocean Model Evaluation of upper ocean mixing parameterizations - Jacob (U. MD)

  17. Real-time dissemination of hurricane wind fields determined from airborne doppler – Gamache (HRD)

  18. Hurricane model transitions to operations at NCEP/EMC - Pan (EMC)/Tuleya (SAIC)

  19. TRANSITIONING TO HURRICANE WRF 02-0303-04 05 06 07 Mesoscale Data Assimilation for Hurricane Core Begin Physics Upgrades Final GFDL upgrades HWRF T&E GFDL Continue upgrades HWRF T&E MM5 Operational (9km/42?L) HWRF Transition to HWRF HWRF Prelim. Test - grid, hurricane physics Begin R&D

  20. Third Round (FY05-06)Project Focus Areas

  21. JHT Website www.nhc.noaa.gov/jht/index.shtml

  22. JHT Mission Statement The mission of the Joint Hurricane Test Bed is to transfer more rapidly and smoothly new technology, research results, and observational advances of the USWRP, its sponsoring agencies, the academic community and other groups into improved tropical cyclone analysis and prediction at operational centers.

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