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Investor Presentation March 2011. TSX: FMC. Disclaimer.
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Investor Presentation March 2011 TSX: FMC
Disclaimer This presentation contains forward-looking statements under Canadian securities legislation. Forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, statements with respect to the development potential and timetable of the Magdelena and Aviemore projects; the Company’s ability to raise additional funds as necessary; the future price of coal; the estimation of mineral resources; conclusions of economic evaluation (including scoping studies); the realization of mineral resource estimates; the timing and amount of estimated future production, development and exploration; costs of future activities; capital and operating expenditures; success of exploration activities; mining or processing issues; currency exchange rates; government regulation of mining operations; and environmental risks. Generally, forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “plans”, “expects” or “does not expect”, “is expected”, “budget”, “scheduled”, “estimates”, “forecasts”, “intends”, “anticipates” or “does not anticipate”, or “believes”, or variations of such words and phrases or statements that certain actions, events or results “may”, “could”, “would”, “might” or “will be taken”, “occur” or “be achieved”. Forward-looking statements are based on the opinions and estimates of management as of the date such statements are made. Estimates regarding the anticipated timing, amount and cost of mining at the Mali projects are based on assumptions underlying mineral resource estimates and the realization of such estimates; results of previous mining activities at the projects, and detailed research and analysis completed by independent consultants and management of the Company; research and estimates regarding the timing of delivery for long-lead items; knowledge regarding certain factors described in the technical report filed under the profile of the Company onSEDAR. Capital and operating cost estimates are based on results of previous mining activities, research of the Company and independent consultants. Production estimates are based on mine plans and production schedules, which have been developed by the Company’s personnel and independent consultants. Forward-looking statements are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause the actual results, level of activity, performance or achievements of the Company to be materially different from those expressed or implied by such forward looking statements, including but not limited to risks related to: timing and availability of external financing on acceptable terms; unexpected events and delays during construction, expansion and start-up; variations in ore grade and recovery rates; receipt and revocation of government approvals; actual results of exploration and mining activities; changes in project parameters as plans continue to be refined; future prices of coal; failure of plant, equipment or processes to operate as anticipated; accidents, labour disputes and other risks of the mining industry. Although management of the Company has attempted to identify important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in forward-looking statements, there may be other factors that cause results not to be as anticipated, estimated or intended. There can be no assurance that such statements will prove to be accurate, as actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Accordingly, readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. The Company does not undertake to update any forward-looking statements except in accordance with applicable securities laws. Investors are advised that National Instrument NI 43-101 of the Canadian Securities Administrators (“NI 43-101”) requires that each category of mineral reserves and mineral resources be reported separately. Mineral resources that are not mineral reserves do not have demonstrated economic viability. Cautionary Note to U.S. Investors Concerning Estimates of Measured, Indicated or Inferred Resources The information presented uses the terms “measured”, “indicated” and “inferred” mineral resources. United States investors are advised that while such terms are recognized and required by Canadian regulations, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission does not recognize these terms. “Inferred mineral resources” have a great amount of uncertainty as to their existence, and as to their economic and legal feasibility. It cannot be assumed that all or any part of an inferred mineral resource will ever be upgraded to a higher category. Under Canadian rules, estimates of inferred mineral resources may not form the basis of feasibility or other economic studies. United States investors are cautioned not to assume that all or any part of measured or indicated mineral resources will ever be converted into mineral reserves. United States investors are also cautioned not to assume that all or any part of an inferred mineral resource exists, or is economically or legally mineable.
Company Overview Forbes & Manhattan Coal Corp.’s (“Forbes Coal” or the “Company”) vision is to build a high quality bituminous and metallurgical coal company with potential capacity in excess of 10M t/year Company Summary
EXPORT ALLOCATION UPDATE Milestone agreement inked on December 7th increases export capacity from 197,000 to 1,157,000 tonnes per annum Potential to Increase Throughput by 960,000 Tonnes and Cash Flows by Up to $30 Million Per Annum Over a Three Year Period Highlights include: • Grindrod Terminals shall provide export capacity in the Terminal for the shipment of coal products as follows: • 2011 – 600,000 metric tons (m/t) per annum • 2012 – 720,000 metric tons (m/t) per annum • 2013 – 960,000 metric tons (m/t) per annum • Grindrod Terminals provides certain logistical, handling and stock piling services to shippers in connection with the shipment of bulk cargoes through the dry bulk coal Terminal known as the Navitrade Terminal (and its associated facilities), connected to berths in the Port of Richards Bay. • Grindrod Terminals will provide up to 70,000 t in stockpile capacity to receive the coal at the terminal. • F&M can deliver coal to the Terminal either by road or rail. • Forbes Coal entered into an agreement with TFR for the transport of the coal to the terminal in order to support the throughput capacity POSITIONED FOR MULTI –YEAR EXPORT GROWTH VIA RICHARDS BAY
Experienced Management Team Stephan Theron, B.Comm, CGA │President and Chief Executive Officer Extensive management, project finance and equity analysis experience in the mining, energy and infrastructure sectors Previous capital and project experience includes Weir PLC and AMEC PLC Former sector head materials and energy with a specific focus on South African coal market Johan Louw, P. Eng. │Vice President, Africa Operations & acting Chief Operational Officer Capital project specialist with over 15 years experience in the Southern African mining and energy sectors Former project manager for Weir PLC and KBR Inc. Former senior plant metallurgist for Anglo Coal covering numerous export focused coal mines Kuda Muchenje M.Geo │VP Exploration & Development Seasoned exploration geologist with over 15 years experience in the generation of exploration targets and management of exploration and evaluation programmes Operating experience in South Africa, Mozambique and Zimbabwe Deb Battiston, CGA. │Chief Financial Officer Financial specialist with over 20 years experience in the mining sector Jennifer Wagner LLB. │Corporate SecretaryCorporate securities lawyer who has worked as a legal consultant to various TSX and TSX Venture listed companies in the mining industry. Bob Bentley, │Mining Manager Former Mine Inspector in KwaZuluNatal Over 30 year of Mining management experience
Directors Stan Bharti, P.Eng. │Executive Chairman Business consultant and a professional mining engineer with more than 25 years experience President of Forbes & Manhattan, Inc., a private merchant bank operating in Canada, the U.S. and Western Europe, since July 2001 Stephan Theron : President and CEO David Stein, MSc., CFA │Director Over nine years of asset evaluation, research and corporate finance experience President and Director of Aberdeen International (seed investor in Forbes Coal) Grant Davey, P. Eng. │Director Mining Engineer with close to 20 years experience in coal, platinum and gold mining industry Previously held senior operational management roles for Anglo American in South Africa & Australia David Gower, P. Geo. │Director Professional Geologist and the former Global Head of Nickel Exploration for Falconbridge Ryan Bennett, M.Mining Eng│Director Masters degree in Mining Engineering from the Colorado School of Mines Extensive technical mining project analyses experience Senior Partner of Resource Capital Fund
Historical Coal Prices • South African thermal coal (Richard’s Bay terminal) and coking coal prices have increased significantly over the last several months • The recovery to 2008 levels have been driven by increased demand, particularly from China and India, and higher cost supply from key producing nations such as Russia and the U.S. Historical South African Thermal Coal and PCI Coal Prices Source: Bloomberg
Established Mining Region Source: Company reports
Mining Resource • Recently completed NI 43 – 101 technical report calls for +18.0 year weighed life of mine (“LOM”) NI 43 – 101 Global Resource1 • As set out in the Technical Report of the Company available on the SEDAR profile of the Company at www.sedar.com. • Exclusive of reserves
South Africa – Overview • Ranked best country to do business in Africa by Forbes.com in 2009 • Modern infrastructure system supporting distribution of commodities for both domestic and export markets • Extensive rail network (10th longest in the world) • Majority of electricity generated via coal fired power stations • Richard’s Bay port in South Africa is the world’s largest bulk coal terminal • 91M t capacity • Coal railed from approximately 49 mines • Long history in resource development • World’s largest PGM & ferrochrome producer • Significant coal, iron ore and manganese resources Richard’s Bay Port World’s Largest Coal Terminal
South African Bituminous Coal Market • Forbes Coal sells its high quality bituminous coal directly to independent industrial companies in South Africa (US$40 – US$50/t premium on coal) • Forbes Coal’s domestic sales are at market prices (approximately US$80/t) compared to low quality coal sold to state-controlled power utility Eskom (sells at US$20/t-US$30/t) • Forbes Coal also sells its bituminous coal to export markets through the Richard’s Bay port • Targeting export markets in India and Europe • South African exports to India increased from 8.4M t in 2008 to 22.0M t in 2009 • South Africa has historically been a major supplier to Europe given significantly lower shipping prices compared to major exporting countries such as Australia and Indonesia • Significant upside potential to export prices • Richards Bay bituminous coal spot price of US$130/t is significantly below 2008 highs of US$177/t • Robust import demand from India • Growing imports into China due to increasing demand and production curtailments • Slowing export supply growth from Indonesia as more coal is diverted for domestic use • Short-term supply constraints caused by flooding in Australia • Australia is the second-largest exporter of bituminous coal • Wood Mackenzie stated that prices could exceed 2008 highs Magdalena Sales Mix (2010E)
Growing Bituminous Coal Demand from China and India Expecting continued strong demand for bituminous coal imports from both China and India Chinese coal supply limited by domestic production, infrastructure constraints from Inner Mongolia and domestic power generation growth Indian demand being driven by construction of new coal fired power stations In 2004, Chinese net exports of thermal coal were 71M t. From December 2009 to November 2010 net imports were 39M t, a swing of 110M tpa in a global market of about 700M tpa1 Richard’s Bay bituminous coal exports to Asia have grown 237% since 2008, making Asia the largest bituminous coal export market for South African coal China and India Bituminous Coal Imports2 Richard’s Bay Terminal Bituminous Coal Exports3 10x increase • Chinese trade data, Canaccord Genuity Research • Source: December 2010 Xstrata presentation • Richard’s Bay Terminal, Canaccord Genuity Research
Magdalena Bituminous Coal Operations Asset Summary1 Magdalena Operations and Site Layout • Source: National Instrument 43 – 101 Report (Minxcon April 30, 2010) available under the profile of the Company on SEDAR at www.sedar.com. • Fiscal year-end February 28
Magdalena Bituminous Coal Production Profile • Ramp-up on schedule • New continuous miner arrived in December (further increase saleable production capacity by close to 30,000 tonnes per month) Magdalena Saleable Bituminous Coal Production1 (000 t)/February 28 year-end • Source: National Instrument 43 – 101 Report (Minxcon April 30, 2010) available under the profile of the Company on SEDAR at www.sedar.com.
Selected Magdalena Photographs Source: Company reports
Overview of Anthracite Coal Market • Background to anthracite coal • Carbon-rich (70% to 85% carbon content), high quality coal with relatively high BTU (11,000-14,000 BTU) and low sulphur content (typically <1.8%) • Cost-effective replacement for coking coal/coke • Applications include iron ore pelletizing, PCI for blast furnaces, calcining for electrode manufacturing, ferroalloys and power generation • Anthracite coal market1 • 2007 global production of 170-180M t, of which 50M t was exported by 6 countries • Anthracite coal accounts for approximately 1% of the global coal market • Asia dominates demand for anthracite coal • 83% of global imports • 95% of expected export demand growth • Demand driven by the metal refining industry • Relatively inelastic demand (no price-competitive substitutes) • Constrained supply from major producers (Vietnam, Russia, Ukraine) • Pricing highly correlated with PCI coal prices • Current European anthracite lump prices are only 45% of European coke prices, compared to the historical ratio of 60-70% Anthracite Coal Exports/Imports (2009)1 Exports Imports Anthracite Coal Users by Industry • Source: Resource-net
South African Anthracite Coal Market • The South African anthracite coal domestic and export market has grown significantly since 2000 • Export market supported by well-established distribution networks • Forbes Coal’s export anthracite coal production is to be sent through the world-class Durban port facility (shipped 25% of South Africa’s anthracite exports in 2008) • Forbes Coal is one of only four major South African anthracite producers • Company is targeting anthracite sales to local, Brazilian, Asian & European steel & metal producers South Africa Anthracite Coal Sales1 South African Anthracite Coal Producer Locations (M t) Domestic Demand CAGR = 11.6% Export Demand CAGR = 4.5% Forbes Coal • Source: Resource-net
Aviemore Anthracite Coal Operations Asset Summary1 Aviemore Operations • Source: National Instrument 43 – 101 Report (Minxcon April 30, 2010) available under the profile of the Company on SEDAR at www.sedar.com. • Fiscal year-end February 28
Aviemore Anthracite Coal Production Profile Calcine plant commissioned in August First production in September, full capacity at end of month Annual production capacity expected to hit 500,000t of saleable coal per annum in FY2014 Aviemore Anthracite Coal Saleable Production1 (000 t)/February 28 year-end • Source: National Instrument 43 – 101 Report (Minxcon April 30, 2010) available under the profile of the Company on SEDAR at www.sedar.com.
Selected Aviemore Photographs Source: Company reports
Organic Growth Opportunities Increase export allocation by close to 1M tonnes over three years Acquired an additional continuous miner at Magdalena Double production Total CAPEX requirement of US$3.0M - $5.0M Increase wash plant recovery rates Improve from current level of 60% to 70% Total CAPEX requirement of $2.0M-$3.0M Investigate product upgrade potential Determine marketability to PCI users Restart Aviemore anthracite operations Ramp-up saleable production to 500,000 t/year (represents US$20.0M in incremental EBITDA based on current forecasted price) Total CAPEX requirement of US$5.0M Source: Company reports
External Growth Opportunities Target consolidation in area • 6 mining operators estimated in the region • 4 acquisition opportunities currently identified in KwaZulu Natal, South Africa • Substantial enhanced upside by improving acquired business operating practices • Increased export allocation and marketing advantage • Synergy in product base and cost savings with central management team Source: Company reports
2010 – 2015 Mine Plan Increasing production: saleable production is expected to grow at a CAGR of 22% from 2010 to 2015 Driven by expansion of production from the Magdalena and Aviemore underground mines Saleable Production1 Cost per ROM tonne YTD2 (000 t) • Source: National Instrument 43 – 101 Report (Minxcon April 30, 2010) available under the profile of the Company on SEDAR at www.sedar.com. • Company estimates year to date March 2010 to December 2010
Capitalization and Share Performance Share Performance Comparable Trading Analysis
Comparable Trading Analysis • Forbes Coal trades at a significant discount to comparable coal producers on an EV/EBITDA and P/CF basis Comparable Trading Analysis 1 2 • Note: As of January 14, 2011 • Riversdale Mining is shown pre-announcement of takeover offer by Rio Tinto Ltd. on December 6, 2010 • Western Coal is shown pre-announcement of merger agreement with Walter Energy, Inc. on November 18, 2010 • Source: Consensus estimates and company reports