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Trade data for GTAP 5

Trade data for GTAP 5. Robert A. McDougall. Problems with services trade source data. one-time only; not updated lacked country detail lacked commodity detail. Services trade data project. Get detailed, ongoing services trade data. Expand sectoral classification.

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Trade data for GTAP 5

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  1. Trade data for GTAP 5 Robert A. McDougall

  2. Problems with services trade source data • one-time only; not updated • lacked country detail • lacked commodity detail Advisory Board Meeting

  3. Services trade data project • Get detailed, ongoing services trade data. • Expand sectoral classification. • Provide data on international transport margins by mode. • WTO contributes source data, derived from IMF and EuroStat statistics. Advisory Board Meeting

  4. Trade data sets Advisory Board Meeting

  5. Merchandise trade data set • from Mark Gehlhar, ERS, USDA • trade values FOB and CIF, by commodity, source, destination • revised for GTAP 5, reference year 1997 • 196 countries • Namibia and Botswana broken out from SACU Advisory Board Meeting

  6. Merchandise trade data (cont.) • informed by David Evans re southern Africa • problems with non-reporters reduced, notably in FSU • disaggregate and extend locally to 211 countries • FOB value $5.0t, up 12% from GTAP 4 $4.6t Advisory Board Meeting

  7. Non-margin services trade • constructed locally from an intermediate services trade data set • trade value by commodity, source, destn • extend services trade data set from 109 to 211 countries • in extending, value rises from $635b by 11% to $711b Advisory Board Meeting

  8. Non-margin services (cont.) • total value $711b, compared to GTAP 4 $978b • GTAP 4 value inflated by travel, margin exports, royalties Advisory Board Meeting

  9. Services trade data set • constructed locally from WTO/IMF service exports and imports data • trade value by sector, source, destination • covers 109 countries • original statistics have many missing values, affecting small countries and Japan • fill in missing values, reconcile, bilateralize Advisory Board Meeting

  10. Margin usage data • international transport margin usage by mode (transport sector), freight sector, freight source, destination • constructed locally from merchandise trade, services trade, mode share data sets • from merchandise trade CIF, FOB difference, get margin usage by freight, source, destination Advisory Board Meeting

  11. Margin usage (cont.) • from services trade data set • get margin usage by mode and destination • extend from 109 countries to 211 • scale to match merchandise trade data (from $159b, increase by 11%, to $176b) • get initial estimates of margin usage by mode, freight, source and destination from modal shares data set • rebalance Advisory Board Meeting

  12. Modal shares data set • modal shares by mode, freight, source, destination • constructed locally from data on modal shares in US trade, contributed by Mark Gehlhar • Mark’s data shows high “other transport” shares in trade with Canada and Mexico, zero elsewhere Advisory Board Meeting

  13. Modal shares (cont.) • extend to all countries • divide routes into: • between contiguous countries • between countries on same continent • between countries on different continents • adjust “other transport” shares by factor of (1.0, 0.1, 0.001) Advisory Board Meeting

  14. Margin usage: perspective • only a minor part of services trade • but takes up most of the space • and takes up most of the processing time • from which we seek not accuracy but mere sanity: • not much air transport of coal oil • not much ground transport between US and Japan Advisory Board Meeting

  15. Margin supply • margin services supply by sector and country • constructed locally from services trade and margin usage data sets • get margin exports data, scale to match margin usage data Advisory Board Meeting

  16. Travel • travellers’ expenditures, by commodity, source, destination (ctry of residence) • constructed locally from services trade data, commodity share estimates • covers all commodities • big: $398b, 31% of all services trade • no statistical underpinning for commodity share estimates Advisory Board Meeting

  17. Hong Kong reexport services • from Shunli Yao, Mark Gehlhar • reexport services supplied by Hong Kong on exports from and imports into metropolitan China • GTAP 5 update in process Advisory Board Meeting

  18. Agenda • complete trade module (aggregate from countries to GTAP regions) • use EuroStat data for bilateral trade • get data on commodity composition of travel Advisory Board Meeting

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