James T. Reilly Consultant October 25, 2010

1. DIMACS Workshop on Algorithmic Decision Theory for the Smart GridChallenges of Generation from Renewable Energy on Transmission and Distribution Operations James T. Reilly Consultant October 25, 2010

2. Evolution of Smart Grid • IntelliGrid Architecture Integration of the power and energy delivery system and the information system (communication, networks, and intelligence equipment) that controls it. • Demand Response / Smart Meters Customers reduction or shift in use during peak periods in response to price signals or other types of incentives. Smart meters with two way communications • Integration of Renewable Energy Renewable Portfolio Standards

3. IntelliGrid(2000) Electrical Infrastructure Intelligence Infrastructure Integrated Energy and Communications System Architecture – 2001 Rev 0 Architecture – 2004

4. IntelliGrid VisionPower System of the Future • A power system made up of numerous automated transmission and distribution systems, all operating in a coordinated, efficient and reliable manner. • A power system that handles emergency conditions with ‘self-healing’ actions and is responsive to energy-market and utility business-enterprise needs. • A power system that serves millions of customers and has an intelligent communications infrastructure enabling the timely, secure and adaptable information flow needed to provide reliable and economic power to the evolving digital economy.

5. Smart Grid Domains(2010) Source: NIST Smart Grid Framework 1.0, September 2009

6. Direction of Smart Grid To date, the smart grid in the United States has been dominated by smart metering and as an enabler for demand management. Now, the direction is turning towards being an enabler for the integration of renewables into distribution networks and the bulk power system.

7. US Electric Power Industry Net Generation (2008) Sources:U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-923, "Power Plant Operations Report.”

8. Renewable Portfolio Standards ME: 30% x 2000 New RE: 10% x 2017 VT: (1) RE meets any increase in retail sales x 2012; (2) 20% RE & CHP x 2017 WA: 15% x 2020* MN: 25% x 2025 (Xcel: 30% x 2020) MT: 15% x 2015 NH: 23.8% x 2025 MI: 10% + 1,100 MW x 2015* MA: 22.1% x 2020 New RE: 15% x 2020(+1% annually thereafter) ND: 10% x 2015 OR: 25% x 2025(large utilities)* 5% - 10% x 2025 (smaller utilities) WI: Varies by utility; 10% x 2015 statewide SD: 10% x 2015 RI: 16% x 2020 NY: 29% x 2015 CT: 23% x 2020 NV: 25% x 2025* IA: 105 MW OH: 25% x 2025† PA: ~18% x 2021† CO: 30% by 2020(IOUs) 10% by 2020 (co-ops & large munis)* WV: 25% x 2025*† IL: 25% x 2025 NJ: 22.5% x 2021 CA: 33% x 2020 KS: 20% x 2020 UT: 20% by 2025* VA: 15% x 2025* MD: 20% x 2022 MO: 15% x 2021 DE: 20% x 2020* AZ: 15% x 2025 DC NC: 12.5% x 2021(IOUs) 10% x 2018 (co-ops & munis) DC: 20% x 2020 NM: 20% x 2020(IOUs) 10% x 2020 (co-ops) TX: 5,880 MW x 2015 HI: 40% x 2030 29 states + DC have an RPS (6 states have goals) State renewable portfolio standard Minimum solar or customer-sited requirement * State renewable portfolio goal Extra credit for solar or customer-sited renewables † Solar water heating eligible Includes non-renewable alternative resources Source: Interstate Renewable Energy Council (June 2010) 8

9. Variable Generation Impact on Bulk Power SystemDispatch – No Renewables Study Area Dispatch – Week of April 10th – No Renewables

10. Variable Generation Impact on Bulk Power System Dispatch – 10% Renewables Study Area Dispatch – Week of April 10th – 10% R

11. Variable Generation Impact on Bulk Power SystemDispatch – 20% Renewables Study Area Dispatch – Week of April 10th – 20% R

12. Variable Generation Impact on Bulk Power System Dispatch – 30% Renewables Study Area Dispatch – Week of April 10th – 30% R

13. Tehachapi Wind GenerationApril 2005 Could you predict the energy production for this wind park, either day-ahead or 5 hours in advance? 700 Each Day is a different color. 600 • Day 29 500 • Day 9 400 • Day 5 • Day 26 Megawatts 300 • Average 200 100 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 -100 Hour Source: CAISO

14. Variable Generation Impact on Bulk Power System • Output can be counter to load ramps or faster than system ramp • Unpredictable patterns – wind variability and large imbalances, esp. during disturbances and restoration efforts • Low capacity factor – can be zero at times of peak • Voltage issues – low voltage ride through (LVRT) • Reactive & real power control issues • Frequency & Inertial Response issues • Oversupply conditions

15. Operational Issues The operational issues created by variable generation result from the uncertainty created by the variable output and the characteristics of the generators themselves, such as the inertial response and dynamic response during fault conditions. The impacts are also affected by factors specific to the particular variable generation site, its interconnection to the power system, the characteristics of the conventional generators within the system being operated, and the rules and tools used by the particular system operator. The operational issues created by variable generation can be considered in terms of various time frames: seconds to minutes, minutes to hours, hours to day, day to week, and week to year and beyond. Source: Integration of Variable Generation into the Bulk Power System, NERC. July 2008.

16. Operational Issues – Time Scale Source: John Adams, GE

17. Operational Practices to Accommodate Variable Generation • Substantially increase balancing area cooperation or consolidation, either real or virtual • Increase the use of sub-hourly scheduling for generation and interchanges • Increase utilization of existing transmission • Enable coordinated commitment and economic dispatch of generation over wider regions • Incorporate state of the art wind and solar forecasts in unit commitment and grid operations • Increase the flexibility of dispatchable generation where appropriate (e.g., reduce minimum generation levels, increase ramp rates, reduce start/stop costs or minimum down time) • Commit additional operating reserves as appropriate • Build transmission as appropriate to accommodate renewable energy expansion • Target new or existing demand response or load participation programs to accommodate increased variability and uncertainty • Require wind plants to provide down reserves Source: Western Wind and solar integration study, May 2010 Prepared for NREL by GE Energy. May 2010. The technical analysis performed in this study shows that it is operationally feasible for WestConnect to accommodate 30% wind and 5% solar energy penetration, assuming these changes to current practice are made over time.

18. DER Interconnection Distributed Energy Technologies Interconnection Technologies Electric Power Systems • Functions • Power Conversion • Power Conditioning • Power Quality • Protection • DER and Load Control • Ancillary Services • Communications • Metering Utility System Fuel Cell PV Inverter Micro grids Micro turbine Wind Loads Local Loads PHEV; V2G Energy Storage Load Simulators Switchgear, Relays, & Controls Generator

19. Technologies to Accommodate Renewable Generator Behaviors • Energy Storage & Intelligent Agent (temporal power flow control) • Solar and Wind Forecasting Tools • Power Flow Control (spatial) • Demand Response • Distributed Generation • Generator and Load Modeling • Statistical and Probabilistic Forecasting Tools • Advanced Intelligent Protection Systems • Synchrophasor Monitoring

20. Smart Grid Reliability System Restoration • Reilly Associates • PO Box 838 • Red Bank, NJ 07701 • Telephone: (732) 706-9460 • Email: j_reilly@verizon.net