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What do we know about climate patterns during the MWP & LIA? How different are they from the 20 th Century? What do we know about socioeconomic changes during that time?.

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Welcome and Aloha!

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  1. What do we know about climate patterns during the MWP & LIA? How different are they from the 20th Century? • What do we know about socioeconomic changes during that time? • Can a better understanding of climate-society interactions during the MWP-to-LIA epochs help us plan for future (anthropogenic) climate change effects? Welcome and Aloha!

  2. There is a good deal of overlapping proxy and model data consistent with a La Niña like tropical Pacific in Medieval times (both in the tropics and the mid-latitudes). As simulated by models or inferred from proxy records, changes in tropical SST would drive very large climate changes in the Pacific basin. What would happen to ecosystems and cultures in this region if this pattern were to reoccur? One goal is to examine the pro’s and cons for cool tropical Pacific during MWP. [Some of the cultural/ecologic changes associated with late Medieval (MWP-LIA transition) are described collectively in Patrick Nunn's papers.] Welcome and Aloha!

  3. PACIFIC MARINE PROXY RECORDS Source: Graham et al. Clim. Change (2007) CORRELATIONS SST WITH NINO3 SST

  4. Two reference sources on these events yield verysimilar results: about 35% precip deficit for 50-100 years MONO LAKE MODERN “NATURAL” LEVEL 14C dates LOW STANDS FROM STINE (1994) LOW STANDS FROM STINE (1994) Graham and Hughes (In press).

  5. Source: Graham et al. (2007), Climatic Change < -1.5˚C

  6. PDSI: MCA - POST-MCA DIFFERENCES COVARIANCE PC #1 vs PALMYRA CORAL δ18O PDSI – Cook et al. (2004) Palmyra – Cobb et al. (2003)

  7. CCM3 MCA SIMULATION GCM FORCED WITH INFERRED MCA TROPICAL PACIFIC SST PATTERN BASED ON THE PALMYRA & MINDANAO PROXY RECORDS 40+ ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IDEALIZED ENSO VARIABILITY DEC. - MARCH MARCH - JUNE Simulations by T. Xi and M. Hoerling, NOAA CDC; c.f. Herweijer, Seager, and Cook, 2005

  8. Session 1 Paleoenvironmental studies: archives, proxy records, pre-history, and early history of Pacific Island societies • A Shock to the system: Climatic disruption of Pacific Island societies around AD 1300 Patrick Nunn • Environmental change and cultural response in the Pacific Islands over the last millennium Simon Haberle

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