Pramod Aggarwal Indian Agricultural Research Institute New Delhi, India

1. Enhancing the Adaptive Capacity of Indian Agriculture to Climate Change: Opportunities and Constraints Pramod Aggarwal Indian Agricultural Research Institute New Delhi, India

2. Agriculture led development in India • Food production increased from 65 in 1960s to 230 million tons in 2008 • Land saved - more than 50 million ha • Calorie intake increased from 1900 to 2500 Kcal/capita/day • Poverty decreased in rural areas from 51% (in 1977) to 27% (in 2004) • Human development index improved from 0.41 (in 1972) to 0.619 (in 2007-08)

3. And yet problems persist • 1/4th of the world’s hungry • 40% of the world’s malnourished children and women • Lagging in meeting MDGs • Given a choice, 40% farmers would like to leave farming (NSSO, 2005)

4. 2020 2050 2080 Source: IPCC2007; Adapted from Krishna kumar et al. 2009 Climate change may further compound the situation

5. Assessing vulnerability of Indian agriculture to climate change: Controlled environment facilities at Delhi

6. Climate change impacts on crop yields in India:Wheat

7. Climate change impacts on crop yields in India:Maize

8. Climate change impacts on crop yields in India:Sorghum

9. Climate change impacts on crop yields in India:Soybean

10. These impact assessments have uncertainties • Possible errors in climate models, crop models and data used • No link with change in future irrigation water availability • No consideration of weather extremes • Future technological developments, (e.g. in crop improvement), and socio-economic scenarios not considered

11. Projected impacts of climate change on Indian agriculture • Increase in CO2 to 550 ppm increases yields of most C3 crops by 10-20%. • A 1oC increase in temperature may reduce yields of many crops by 0-7%. Much higher losses at higher temperatures. • Productivity of most crops to decrease only marginally/remain unaffected by 2020 but decrease by 10-40% by 2100. • Possibly some improvement in yields of chickpea, winter maize, sorghum and millets. • Less loss in potato, mustard and vegetables in north-western India due to reduced frost damage.

12. Apple yields in Himachal have decreased due to inadequate chilling Apple cultivation shifted upwards Farmers changed to vegetables earning more income New varieties with lesser chilling requirement being introduced Climate change may also provide new opportunities

13. Adapting agriculture to climate change:Setting goals of adaptation • Indian national agricultural policy aims a: • Growth rate of 4% per annum • Growth based on efficiency and conservation of resources • Growth that is inclusive and equitable • Goals of adaptation • Producing more (diversified) food to meet demand • Stabilizing production in climate stressed seasons • Raising input use efficiency to address the increasing competition for land, water, capital, and labour settlements • Greater focus on poor

14. Biological potential yield Biophysical potential yield Current yield Adapting to climate change by raising crop production:Large yield gaps in crops provide an opportunity Yield gap2: Limited by climate, soil, and irrigation Demand 2020 Yield gap1: Limited by crop management, pests, and risk management approaches

15. Agronomic options can meet goals of adaptation in short-term

16. Adaptation/mitigation options may not always be economically viable: Example of N use efficiency in rice Cost of one kg N in urea Pathak, H. (2010) Nutr. Cycling Agro-ecosystem.

17. National Food Security Mission Aims to bridge yield gaps • Launched in 2007 in 311 districts to raise production by 20 million tons: • Better seeds • Assured inputs- nutrients, irrigation, machinery • Farmers training • Demos

18. Climate change may limit the potential adaptation window of current technologies

19. Source: Ministry of Agriculture, GOI: BMTPC, Ministry of Urban Development, GOI Managing current and future short-term climatic risks is crucial Climatic risks are common in India • 70% of land under cultivation prone to drought • 12% of land (40 million hectares) to floods • 8% of land (8,000 km coastline) to cyclones • A major disaster occurs every 2-3 years • 30 million people affected annually

20. Short periods of drought can cause large yield losses: Sorghum in Rajasthan

21. Adaptation to increasing climatic risks:Assisting farmers to cope with current climatic risks • Providing value-added weather services • Weak weather infrastructure; data protocols, storage, access and dissemination • Promoting insurance for climatic risk management • scientific and economically validated schemes; weather derivatives; awareness • Facilitating community partnership in food, forage and seed banks • Technical know-how; capital costs; reduced acceptance if successive years are risk free • Compensating farmers for environmental services • Technical know-how; costs of production go up • Sharing experiences across similar regions • Validation in new scenarios of development and climate risks

22. Drought Events 2009 1877 1965 1972 1979 1987 2002 Major Policy Interventions Famine Codes Contingency Crop Plan Drought management Improved weather forecasts and their applications Knowledge management Watershed Approach Water management Green Revolution and FCI Scarcity relief Employ ment Generation Programmes Drought relief Each round represent death of one million people Each round represent around fifty million people affected Source: ADPC/MOA Policy responses have consistently evolved with successive drought events

23. Drought early warning and response system has been conceptualized RAINFALL MONITORING RESERVOIR WATER BUDGETING CENTRAL R E S E R V O I R NATIONAL CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP FOOD / NUTRITION SECURITY STATE DISTRICT EMPLOYMENT GENERATION DRINKING WATER SUB-DISTRICT CATTLE CARE CROP MONITORING VILLAGE Early Warning Response Programs Source: MOA

24. Key reasons Widespread poverty Limited human capital Poor governance including limited stakeholder analysis, and dissemination of knowledge Poverty (2005) Population at $2/day or less Human capital literacy rate Green 1-10, Yellow 11-50, Red > 50 Despite such policy responses, climatic risks still cause considerable loss

25. Conclusions • Large yield gaps in all crops is an opportunity for meeting food demand in future even in the face of increasing climatic risks. • In short-term, several options relating to technology transfer and adoption can help improve adaptive capacity. Later, better adapted genotypes will be needed. • Climate change may provide new opportunities for growing crops in regions/periods not considered suitable earlier. Need to manage them. • Problems related to poverty, governance, institutions, and human capital limit agriculture growth today and can also limit adaptation to increasing climatic risks.

26. Some observations on the proposed Mega Program on climate change • Clear identification of stakeholders: • Farmers • Policy Planners • Industry (e.g. insurance, carbon markets) • Stakeholders interest in adaptive capacity: • Understanding vulnerabilities of the region • Overall enhancement of adaptive capacity (not agriculture alone) • Short-term action plans • Integrated, region specific solutions; and not by themes.

27. Some observations on the proposed Mega Program on climate change • New partnerships are required: • Other science departments (earth sciences, e.g.) • Development departments (e.g. irrigation and disaster management agencies) • Industry (e.g. insurance, carbon marketing) • Cooperatives (e.g. for food, seed and feed banks)