Hard Choices: Equipping an Army for a New Strategy with a Smaller Budget

1. Hard Choices: Equipping an Army for a New Strategy with a Smaller Budget Tony Cucolo Major General, US Army 21 MAR 12

2. The G-8’s Role Where I’m from: “Army G-8” • Deputy Chief of Staff G-8 • Integrates staffs and commands to provide fully equipped forces as directed • Manage Army reset for the current and next fight • Assess the Army’s next essential need • Develops and defends the “Army Program” How does the Army support the defense Strategy? What size Army? What capabilities? Translate requirements to solutions Develop the Army resourcing plan Quadrennial Defense Review Center for Army Analysis Force Development Program Analysis and Evaluation 3

3. The FD’s Role What I do: “Force Development” Equipment Modernization Strategy Translate requirements into programs Plan, synchronize, and integrate equipping requirements for deployed units Balance, prioritize requirements against resources Joint and Futures Materiel Integration Resourcing 4

4. New Defense Strategic Guidance 5 Jan 12 • Transition from today’s wars to preparing for future challenges • Rebalance to Asia-Pacific, while remaining vigilant in Middle East • Maintain our Article 5 commitments to NATO • Strengthening alliances/partnerships across all regions • 10 primary missions of the US Armed Forces; 4 for sizing: • Counter Terrorism and Irregular Warfare • Deter and Defeat Aggression “deterring and defeating aggression by an opportunistic adversary in one region even when our forces are committed to a large-scale operation elsewhere” • Maintain a Safe, Secure, and Effective Nuclear Deterrent • Defend the Homeland and Provide Support to Civil Authorities • Maintain a ready and capable force, even as we reduce our overall capacity • Ability to surge and regenerate (reversibility) • Keep faith with troops, families, and veterans

5. “Sizing” Guidance • Sizing guidance: • Deter and Defeat Aggression: One large-scale combined arms campaign with follow-on small-scale stability/transition operations for limited period using standing forces (or sustained with partial mobilization), and defeat aggression by an opportunistic adversary in another region, simultaneously. • Counter Terrorism and Irregular Warfare: Sustain capabilities, capacity, and institutional expertise for direct action and security force assistance. • Defend the Homeland: Heightened defense posture in/around the United States (including missile defense) and support to civil authorities for one large-scale terrorist attack or natural disaster or complex catastrophe. • Specifics: • Reduce AC end strength to 490K by end of FY 17 • Reduce at least 8 AC BCTs, including 2 ABCTs in Europe

6. Hybrid Strategies • Three components of Hybrid Threats • Nation States or Proxies with a range of capabilities • Desire to preclude U.S. from executing its “way of war” • Capabilities that create a “Strategic Lever”… specifically designed to impact U.S. actions • Recognize conventional confrontation with the US is a losing proposition • Focus on US vulnerabilities • Utilize home terrain advantages • Nontraditional employment of all possible capabilities • End State: • frustrate US operations • ensure survival of key capabilities • turn conflict into protracted war of attrition Proxies Strategic Capabilities Terrorist/Criminal activity HYBRID STRATEGY Irregular Operations Conventional Structure and Capability U.S. is likely to face a hybrid strategy into the foreseeable future 6

7. Hybrid Threat Concept • Anti-access and area denial campaigns … strategic thru tactical levels • Engage at small unit level to obtain overmatch • Use violence, intimidation and coercion against the population • WMD capable… but still seeking nuclear • Avoid detection and targeting by operating among the people • Slow down or halt our momentum using anti-tank missiles, IEDs, air defense and SOF • Increased use of robotics and unmanned aerial systems • Employ electronic warfare to counter US precision • Conduct sophisticated information campaigns designed to erode US will over time Joint Operational Access Concept CONUS AirSea Battle Area Denial Gaining & Maintaining Access Anti Access Intermediate Staging Base Hybrid Threats 7

8. A Changed View: Range of Military Operations With hybrid strategies presenting hybrid threats Formerly, a narrow lens… (…but The Army still did what it was told outside this narrow lens) But now a specified wide lens Stability Ops Deter & Defeat Cyber & Space Specific Threat Specific Location Nuke BPC HD/DSCA CWMD CT/IW COIN FHA Assume Risk Assume Risk Specific threat, degree of certainity, and known location drove: Doctrine Equipment Training Organizational Structure Force Posture Conduct Unified Land Operations Gain and Maintain Access Defeat Anti-Access Defeat Area Denial Hard Complex problems, but simple narrative to Congress and the American People based off real potential threat to vital national interests. Joint Combined Arms Fire & Maneuver As operational construct Historic Examples: 1920-30s Rainbow Planning Airmobile Active Defense Air Land Battle Now: Air Sea Battle No holistic Operational Construct will arise that encompasses all of Unified Land Ops and drive doctrine, equipment, etc., as Air Land Battle did.

9. Unified Land Operations Seize, retain, and exploit the initiative to gain and maintain a position of relative advantage in sustained land operations in order to create the conditions for favorable conflict resolution Executed through… Decisive Action Offensive Defensive Stability DSCA By means of… Army Core Competencies Combined Arms Maneuver Wide Area Security Guided by… Mission Command

10. The “specialize” or “generalize” question… How adaptable is the general purpose formation built for unified land operations?

11. Our Strength is Our Ability to Adapt Operational Adaptability codified in doctrine (“Unified Land Operations”) Security Force Advise & Assist Teams Advise & Assist Brigades Pakistan Flood Relief PRT Support Haiti Earthquake Assistance Police Training Programs Heavy Air Assaults Border Training Full Spectrum Operations Support to Civil Affairs, PSYOPS, Info Ops and CT Ops in Horn of Africa Hurricane Katrina Relief Sustain Ops in Honduras, Bosnia, Kosovo and Egypt OIF I AirLand Battle Executed by Operationally Adaptable Brigades & Battalions 11

12. Our Marching Orders Are Clear THE ROLE OF THE ARMY The purpose of the U.S. Army is to fight and win our Nation’s wars. Warfighting is our primary mission. Everything that we do should be grounded in this fundamental principle. Our strategic framework is guided by three principal and interconnected roles: PREVENT: The Army prevents conflict by maintaining credibility based on capacity, readiness and modernization. It averts miscalculations by potential adversaries. SHAPE: The Army shapes the environment by sustaining strong relationships with other Armies, building their capacity, and facilitating strategic access. WIN: If prevention fails, the Army rapidly applies its combined arms capabilities to dominate the environment and win decisively.

13. Prevent, Shape, Win • Prevent wars (deter & contain): • Brandish land forces of sufficient size and fighting power to deter potential opponents • Demonstrate ability to deploy forces • Conduct sustained stability operations to prevent conflict Prevent • Shape the Security Environment: • Expand and strengthen relationships with partners around the globe • Develop new relationships* • Foster mutual understanding • Help partners defend themselves, both internally and externally • Open access for US forces Shape • Win decisively and dominantly: • Lead Joint Task Forces; provide connectivity to JIIM elements* • Employ a versatile mix of units to conduct sustained land campaigns and counter-terrorism operations • Conduct sustained stability operations to conclude a conflict Win

14. But Equip for what?

15. Equip to Win.Decisively…against the application of a hybrid strategy.

16. The equipping challenge: optimizing the available resources to adequately equip to address the strategy.

18. Budget Guidance 26 Jan 12 • Cut $487 billion over next decade; $259 billion over next 5 years • No longer size active forces to conduct large and protracted stability operations while retaining expertise of a decade of war • Asia-Pacific region places a renewed emphasis on air and naval forces • Middle East ... Increasingly maritime • Eliminate 2 heavy brigades in Europe • Security partner of choice – innovative, low-cost, and small-footprint approaches • Premium on self- and rapidly-deployable forces • Premium on forces present or able to rapidly reposition • Reduced inter/intra-theater airlift • Cut Regular Army to 490K by end of FY 17, including at least 8 BCTs (future design under review) • Retain more mid-grade offices and NCOs • Delay GCV and Army aviation modernization; terminate JLENS and HMMWV upgrades; reduce JAGM • Air Force • Disestablish 6 fighter squadrons (5 A-10, 1 F-16) • Divest C-27J • Limited military pay raises beginning in 2015 • Reductions in planned civilian pay raises • Increased TRICARE fees for retirees • Additional BRAC round(s)

19. The process begins with defining the and validating requirements…and since we cannot afford to resource every valid requirement, routine prioritization becomes key.

20. Turning Requirements into Solutions Strategy What the field needs Affordability / Best Value Buy / Maintain investments TRADOC Develop / Integrate Acquisition / Life Cycle Managers HQDA Policy / Guidance Leader Input - Develop - Acquire - Distribute - Upgrade - Sustain - Divest Lessons Learned Requirements Balance Urgent Needs - Validate (G-3) - Prioritize (G-3) - Resource (G-8) - Approve (Senior Leaders) - Document (G-3) Future Force Resources Requirements

21. Current Priorities and Top 10 Programs Priorities Empower, Protect and Unburden the Soldier; equip the Squad to be the foundation of the decisive force Network the Force Deter & Defeat Hybrid Threats by Replacing, Improving and/or Transforming: Combat Vehicles Aviation Light Tactical Vehicles 10 Critical Programs • Ground Combat Vehicle (GCV) • Armored Multi-Purpose Vehicle (AMPV) • Paladin Integrated Management (PIM) • Kiowa Warrior (KW) • Joint Light Tactical Vehicle (JLTV) • Joint Tactical Radio System (JTRS) • Warfighter Information Network – Tactical (WIN-T) • Joint Battle Command-Platforms (JBC-P) • Nett Warrior • Distributed Common Ground System- Army (DCGS-A) 21

22. But the challenge goes beyond equipment…and with great complexity.

23. “Balanced” Spending The Metric of Spending Ranges BOS/Family Prog Balance = 6 – 7% Facilities Balance = 7 – 9% RDT&E Balance = 5 – 8% Training & Ops Balance = 11 – 14% Procurement Balance = 14 – 18% Sustainment Balance = 3 – 5% Other Support Balance = 2 – 2.5% ChemDemil Balance = 0.5 – 1% Manpower Balance = 40 – 45%

24. What if we get it wrong? Strategic Expectations

25. The best hedge against an uncertain future is a well-trained, well-equipped, and well-disciplined land force with global reach.

26. Hard Choices: Equipping an Army for a New Strategy with a Smaller Budget Tony Cucolo Major General, US Army 21 MAR 12

27. Back Up

28. Army Global Commitments Army Global Commitments PACOM NORTHCOM EUCOM CENTCOM USAREUR 38,230 SOLDIERS (FWD Stationed) CONUS SPT BASE 2,870 SOLDIERS (RC Mobilized Stateside) OEF- AFGHANISTAN 65,810 SOLDIERS SOUTH KOREA 18,970 SOLDIERS (Part of AC Station Overseas) IRAQ 130 SOLDIERS BOSNIA 90 SOLDIERS KUWAIT 15,100 SOLDIERS ALASKA 13,850 SOLDIERS (FWD Stationed) JAPAN 2,500 SOLDIERS KFOR 690 SOLDIERS QATAR 1,860 SOLDIERS OEF- PHILIPPINES 480 SOLDIERS HAWAII 22,630 SOLDIERS (FWD Stationed) SOUTHCOM AFRICOM JTF-GTMO 350 SOLDIERS MFO 640 SOLDIERS JTF- HOA 1,220 SOLDIERS HONDURAS JTF-BRAVO 290 SOLDIERS OTHER OPERATIONS & EXERCISES 5,200 SOLDIERS IN NEARLY 120 COUNTRIES OVERSEAS 21 Feb 2012

29. Allocation of Defense Resources Allocation of resources within DOD have remained relatively constant over the past 60 years, except during war.

30. An independent thought:The role of the Army is to provide strategic breadth and depth to the Joint Force through the conduct of decisive unified land operations in support of National objectives. The Army gives the Commander in Chief the widest range of options for actions on land.

31. Army Force-Sizing Missions Defend the Homeland & Support Civil Authorities Deter and Defeat Aggression Defeat Opportunistic Aggression Conduct Stability & Counterinsurgency Operations Counter Terrorism & Irregular Warfare

32. FOUO -- DRAFT -- PREDECISIONAL Smaller Force ... Different Focus 2003 2018 AC RC Force Pool 1 Defend the Homeland & Support Civil Authorities AC RC AC RC Counterterrorism & Irregular Warfare Force Pool 2 AC RC Rotational Depth AC RC Defeat Opportunistic Aggression Combined Arms Campaign + Transition Operations AC RC Force Pool 3 AC RC FOUO -- DRAFT -- PREDECISIONAL

33. Affordably Building a Force Identify areas where risk can be accepted and trades can be made to achieve high priority/high payoff modernization objectives. Cost Capability (Portfolio, Formation, Platform) Schedule Quantity Procurement Schedule Variant of Item Item Cost Organization Size Where does the Army accept risk?

34. Combined Arms Maneuver – the application of the elements of combat power in a complementary and reinforcing manner to achieve physical, temporal, or psychological advantages over the enemy, preserve freedom of action, and exploit success. Wide Area Security – the application of the elements of combat power in coordination with other military and civilian capabilities to deny the enemy positions of advantage; protect forces, populations, infrastructure, and activities; and consolidate tactical and operational gains to set conditions for achieving strategic and policy goals. Source: TRADOC Pamphlet 525-3-1

35. Operational Concepts to Engage Army Unified Land Operations play a significant role in Joint Unified Action • Joint Operational Access Concept • (Counter Anti-Access / Area Denial) • Littoral Operations Concept • Joint Concept for Entry Operations • Sustained Land Operations Concept • Joint Sustainment Operations Concept • USA / USMC Concept for Gaining and Maintaining Access • Building Partner Capacity Concept • Deterrence Operations Joint Operating Concept • Cyber Operations Concept 35