Cap and Trade, Climate, and Your House

1. Cap and Trade, Climate, and Your House Patrick J. Michaels Distinguished Senior Fellow School of Public Policy George Mason University Senior Fellow Cato Institute

2. Waxman-Markey •3% below 2005 emissions in 2012 •16% below 2005 by 2020 •42% below 2005 by 2030 •83% below 2005 by 2050

3. • 30% more efficient than 2005 in 2012 • 50% in 2016 • Additional 5% every three years WAXMAN-MARKEY HOUSING STANDARDS

4. • By 2049 (38.4 years from today) -- EVERY HOME IS A GENERATOR. DO THE MATH

5. US per capita CO2 emissions POST-2005 VALUES BASED UPON WAXMAN-MARKEY and U.S. Census Bureau projections 2005

6. U.S. Annual CO2 Emissions

7. Impacts of Waxman-Markey on Projected Global Temperatures Year 2050 1.584°C 1.540°C 1.500°C

8. Impacts of Waxman-Markey on Projected Global Temperatures Year 2100 2.959°C 2.847°C 2.738°C

9. COST ESTIMATES

10. (This Page Intentionally Left Blank)

11. FROM CONGRESS TO EPA

12. EPA Endangerment Finding (December 7, 2009): “Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely* due to the observed increase in anthropogenic GHG [greenhouse gas] concentrations.” * EPA defines “very likely” as a 90 to 95% probability

13. “Observed” Global Temperature History, 1950-2009 Total Rise Obs. = 0.702°C (sources: HadCRUT3)

14. “Observed” Global Temperature History, 1950-2009 “Adjusted” for SST Errors Total Rise Obs. = 0.702°C Adj. = 0.552°C Adjusted Temperature Rise is 79% of “Observed” (sources: HadCRUT3; Thompson et al., 2008)

15. “Observed” Global Temperature History, 1950-2009 “Adjusted” for SST + Non-climatic Influences Total Rise Obs. = 0.702°C Adj. = 0.468°C Adjusted Temperature Rise is 67% of “Observed” (sources: HadCRUT3; Thompson et al., 2008; McKitrick and Michaels, 2007)

16. “Observed” Global Temperature History, 1950-2009 “Adjusted” for SST + NonClim + Stratos H2O Total Rise Obs. = 0.702°C Adj. = 0.408°C Adjusted Temperature Rise is 58% of “Observed” (sources: HadCRUT3; Thompson et al., 2008; McKitrick and Michaels, 2007; Solomon et al., 2010)

17. “Observed” Global Temperature History, 1950-2009 “Adjusted” for SST + NonClim + Stratos H2O + Black Carbon Total Rise Obs. = 0.702°C Adj. = 0.306°C Adjusted Temperature Rise is 44% of “Observed” (sources: HadCRUT3; Thompson et al., 2008; McKitrick and Michaels, 2007; Solomon et al., 2010; Ramanathan and Carmichael, 2009)

18. “Observed” Global Temperature History, 1950-2009 “Adjusted” for SST + NonClim + Stratos H2O + BC + Sun Total Rise Obs. = 0.702°C Adj. = 0.204°C Adjusted Temperature Rise is 29% of “Observed” (sources: HadCRUT3; Thompson et al., 2008; McKitrick and Michaels, 2007; Solomon et al., 2010; Ramanathan and Carmichael, 2009; Scafetta, 2009)

19. “Many residents of low-lying Pacific Island nations have already had to evacuate their homes because of rising seas.” HIGH TIDE IN FUNAFUTI, TUVALU POLYNESIA

20. Steric Sea Level Trends, 1955-1996 Region where Tuvalu and many other Pacific Island nations are located. Sea levels have declined there. Source: Cabanes et al., Science, 2001

21. IPCC AR4 Global Average Sea Level Rise Projections (2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999)

24. URGENCY?

25. IPCC’s 21 Models for Climate Change—Realistic CO2 Changes

26. Projected (A1B) and Observed Temperatures Model Projections Observed Trend

27. Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration (Observed and Projected)

28. ATMOSPHERIC METHANE SOURCES Bovine Flatulence Rice Paddy Agriculture Coal Mining Leaky Pipes?

29. Atmospheric Methane (Duglokenky 09)IPCC 2001 (same as 2007) Overlay

30. Methane, 1983-2008 (Dlugokenky 09)

31. Projected (A1B) and Observed Temperatures Model Projections Observed Trend

32. Global and NH Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (January 1979 - March 2010) Global ACE Northern Hemisphere ACE