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Future consumer trends: fundamentals and expectations 2011-2012

Future consumer trends: fundamentals and expectations 2011-2012. Global Chief Economist, Helge J. Pedersen Copenhagen 14. April 2011. The sovereing debt crises has made it clear that the global trend is to tighten fiscal policy . A stylized Nordic cycle. Tighter. Finland, Denmark.

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Future consumer trends: fundamentals and expectations 2011-2012

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  1. Future consumer trends: fundamentals and expectations 2011-2012 Global Chief Economist, Helge J. Pedersen Copenhagen 14. April 2011

  2. The sovereing debt crises has made it clear that the global trend is to tighten fiscal policy A stylized Nordic cycle Tighter Finland, Denmark Norway Sweden Easier

  3. Central banks have acted decisively …

  4. … this has had a big impact on FX markets and border trade

  5. Unemployment has soared during the Great Recession but Sweden and Finland has surely reached the peak…

  6. This underpins consumer sentiment…

  7. .. and private consumption grows briskly in most countries

  8. Denmark is the laggard - due to the burst of the housing market bubble…

  9. Fortunately financial assets grows briskly again

  10. Norway and Sweden takes the lead in real wages…

  11. .. and these two countries looks most prosperous for private consumption in the years to come

  12. Smooth waters Solid overall growth numbers Nice public finances implies no needs for any devastating fiscal policy tightening Decent outlook for the labour markets No housing market collapse Solid financial assets Risks Scary commodity prices erodes real wages Monetary policy New financial regulation New shocks always come when you expect them the least MENA Japan .... …. Conclusion

  13. Nordea Markets er en fælles betegnelse for afdelingerne Markets i Nordea Bank Norge ASA, Nordea Bank AB (publ), Nordea Bank Finland Plc og Nordea Bank Danmark A/S.Oplysningerne i dette materiale er udelukkende ment som generel information og henvender sig alene til de modtagere, som materialet er rettet mod. Vurderinger samt øvrige oplysninger i materialet er gældende pr. udgivelsesdatoen og kan ændres uden varsel. Dette er ikke en udtømmende beskrivelse af det omtalte produkt eller de dermed forbundne risici, og der gives ingen garanti for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige eller komplette. Materialet er gennemgået omhyggeligt, og vurderingerne er foretaget efter vores bedste skøn. Oplysningerne i dette materiale er ikke investeringsrådgivning og skal ej heller ses som et tilbud om eller en opfordring til køb eller salg af finansielle instrumenter. Oplysningerne heri tager ikke højde for bestemte modtageres investeringsformål, finansielle situation eller behov. Det tilrådes altid at indhente relevant og konkret professionel rådgivning, inden der træffes investerings- eller kreditbeslutninger. Det bemærkes, at historiske afkast ikke er nogen garanti for fremtidige afkast.Nordea Markets er ikke rådgiver for så vidt angår juridiske, skattemæssige, regnskabsmæssige eller lovgivningsmæssige forhold. Dette dokument må ikke gengives, distribueres eller offentliggøres uden forudgående skriftligt tilsagn fra Nordea Markets. Tak for i dag Cheføkonom Helge J. Pedersenhelge.pedersen@nordea.com+45 3333 3126+45 2269 7912

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