Overview

1. Strategic Enrollment Management in the Age of Austerity: Managing Recruitment, Revenue, and Access in Challenging Economic Times AACRAO SEM Conference Chicago, IL Tuesday, November 11, 2013 Randall Langston, Assistant Vice President for Enrollment Management Jamie Scheid, Enrollment Analyst Enrollment Management and Student Affairs & Research, Analysis, & Planning

2. Overview • Demographic Background • Market Drivers and Fiscal Information • Strategy #1 Investment in EM Positions and Re-organization • Strategy #2 Expanding the Funnel • Strategy #3 Financial Aid Leveraging • Strategy #4 Retention and Graduation

3. Demographic Information

4. Total US Population 2010-2050 Source: http://www.businessinsider.com/demographics-in-america-in-2050-2012-10?op=1

5. The United States of America in 2050 • If current trends continue, the population of the United States will rise to 438 million in 2050, from 296 million in 2005, and 82% of the increase will be due to immigrants arriving from 2005 to 2050 and their U.S.-born descendants, according to new projections developed by the Pew Research Center. • Of the 117 million people added to the population during this period due to the effect of new immigration, 67 million will be the immigrants themselves and 50 million will be their U.S.-born children or grandchildren. • The Latino population, already the nation’s largest minority group, will triple in size and will account for most of the nation’s population growth from 2005 through 2050. Hispanics will make up 29% of the U.S. population in 2050, compared with 14% in 2005. • The non-Hispanic white population will increase more slowly than other racial and ethnic groups; whites will become a minority (47%) by 2050. http://pewsocialtrends.org/files/2010/10/85.pdf

6. So where will everyone live? In these 11 emerging "megaregions," economies become so interdependent that they form larger distinct entities Source: http://www.businessinsider.com/demographics-in-america-in-2050-2012-10?op=1

7. Net Regional US Migration

8. Projected change in the number of high school graduates 2009-10 to 2019-20 Source: The Chronicle of Higher Education – Almanac issue 2009-10, Page 6 http://chronicle.texterity.com/chronicle/almanac200910/?pg=6#pg6

9. What Does the Data Tell us about Population Demographics? • Two-thirds of the country is facing some level of decline in number of high school graduates ranging from negligible to significant • Northeast, Upper Midwest, and some areas of the Southeast are experiencing large numbers of population decline as the population shifts to the Southwest, Pacific Northwest, and Western USA. • From 2000 to 2010, regional growth was much faster for the South and West (14.3 and 13.8 percent, respectively) than for the Midwest (3.9 percent) and Northeast (3.2 percent)* • Nevada was the fastest-growing state between 2000 and 2010, growing by 35.1 percent. It was followed by Arizona (24.6 percent), Utah (23.8 percent), Idaho (21.1 percent), and Texas (20.6 percent)* • Rhode Island, Louisiana, and Ohio were the slowest-increasing states, all of which grew by less than 2.0 percent* *Source: US Census 2010 – US Dept. of Commerce

10. Demographic Data 2013 to 2027-28Major Metropolitan Areas • White non-Hispanic public high-school graduates in the 25 metropolitan areas are projected to decline 17 percent, compared with a 12-percent drop for the nation. • Black non-Hispanic public high-school graduates in the metropolitan areas are projected to decline 13 percent, compared with a 9-percent drop for the nation. • The number of Hispanic public high-school graduates is projected to increase by 41 percent for the nation by 2019-20, but by 34 percent for the 25 metropolitan areas. • The number of Asian/Pacific Islander public high-school graduates is projected to increase by 30 percent nationally by 2019-20, compared with a 23-percent rise for the metropolitan areas. Source: Projections of High School Graduates by Sex and for Major Metropolitan Areas October 2013 - Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education - http://www.wiche.edu/info/knocking-8th/supplement/KnockingOct13Full.pdf

11. Latino(a) Population Demographics

12. Latino(a) Population Demographics

13. Latino(a) Population Demographics

14. Latino(a) Population Demographics

15. Population by Race and Ethnicity

16. Where We Are GoingDemographic Picture in NYS • Between 2008 and 2019, the number of high school graduates (public and private) in New York State is likely to decrease by 16.5% due to actual declines observed now by grade level in the state’s schools. • New York has been losing more population than any other state from migration between the states. Net domestic migration between 2000 and 2008 was -1,575,864 residents or 8.3% of the 2000 population. • During the same period, net domestic migration losses were partially offset by international immigration totaling 877,000 individuals (4.6%). This was second in the nation with only California experiencing more immigration from other nations. Source: NYSED Office of Research and Information Systems, 2003

17. Where We Are Going?Demographic Picture in NYS Projections differ by race/ethnicity. Statewide, substantial decreases are projected for Blacks and Whites while increases are projected for Hispanics and Asians: • -28% NYS Blacks • -22% NYS Whites • +4% NYS Hispanics • +15% NYS Asians Source: NYSED Office of Research and Information Systems, 2003

18. Where We Are Going?Racial/Ethnic Projections 2008-2018 Racial/ethnic group projections look quite different when split by region of the state (NYC vs. ROS), primarily due to different population migration patterns and birth rates in each region. Net migration out of NYC for some racial/ethnic school-aged populations probably accounts for considerable in-migration by the same group into the rest of the State (ROS). The following groups are ranked from the greatest projected decreases to projected increases: -37% NYC Blacks -24% ROS Whites (Rest of the State) -20% NYC Hispanics -12% ROS Blacks -10% NYC Whites - 1% NYC Asians +47% ROS Asians +53% ROS Hispanics (American Indian counts were too low to provide statistically valid projections.) Source: NYSED Office of Research and Information Systems, 2003

19. First Year Minority % as part of the Brockport Overall Freshman Class

20. Population Demographics in the State of New York

23. Projected Change in NYS High School Graduates2008 to 2019 Rank Ordered - Change '08 to '19 by County -39.2% ORLEANS -21.3% CHAUTAUQUA -15.9% YATES -36.2% OTSEGO -20.9% NIAGARA -15.0% HERKIMER -33.8% SENECA -20.9% FRANKLIN -15.0% PUTNAM -30.0% DELAWARE -20.9% TIOGA -14.6% NASSAU -29.9% GENESEE -20.8% CHEMUNG -14.0% ONTARIO -29.3% CLINTON -20.4% BROOME -13.2% ST. LAWRENCE -28.1% ESSEX -20.2% TOMPKINS -13.2% DUTCHESS -28.1% GREENE -20.1% OSWEGO -12.8% RENSSELAER -28.0% CATTARAUGUS -20.0% ONEIDA -12.7% HAMILTON -27.5% LIVINGSTON -20.0% MADISON -12.4% ALLEGANY -27.2% CAYUGA -19.9% ULSTER -12.3% SUFFOLK -27.2% WAYNE -19.8% NYC counties -9.0% JEFFERSON -26.0% COLUMBIA -19.6% LEWIS -8.5% SARATOGA -24.8% CHENANGO -19.2% SCHOHARIE -6.3% FULTON -23.0% CORTLAND -18.9% ONONDAGA -5.4% SCHENECTADY -23.0% STEUBEN -17.9% MONTGOMERY -4.0% WESTCHESTER -22.8% WARREN -17.7% ERIE -2.7% SULLIVAN -22.5% WYOMING -16.4% ALBANY 0.2% ROCKLAND -22.4% MONROE -16.2% WASHINGTON .5% ORANGE Source: NYSED, Office of Research and Information Systems, December 2008.

24. Population Cluster Growth Analysis for The College at Brockport

25. Demographics Question: While some states are doing better from a demographic perspective than others, are conversations occurring on your campuses dealing with changing and/or declining demographics and how are you responding?

26. How is The College at Brockport Responding to Demographic shifts? • Understand and make sense of the data!!! • After making sense of the data, reconcile that with what you are attempting to understand (phenomenon) • Game Plan? How do you plan to put this into action? • Implement - We have the data, now lets act upon it • Assess the data

27. NYS Public HS Graduates 2006-2014

28. The College at Brockport – Enrollment by Region

29. Recruitment Region Analysis

30. Market Drivers and Fiscal Information

31. Heavy Competition for Students:Over 3200 Post Secondary Institutions SOURCE: U.S. Education Department http://chronicle.com Section: The 2007-8 Almanac, Volume 54, Issue 1,

32. Impact of the Economy 76% of families would be “somewhat” or “very likely” to consider a more expensive institution if it could deliver greater value. Source: Longmire & Company, Inc. 2009 “Study of the Impact of the Economy on Enrollment”

33. Impact of the Economy In 2010 46% of students claimed the current economic crisis caused them to reconsider the schools they would apply to or attend – an increase from 34% in 2009. Source: Noel-Levitz 2010 e-expectations report

34. Market Driver Questions: • Given the heightened competition among higher education nationally, how do we set ourselves apart – both in presentation & communication? • How are you engaging your students and their families? • How do you discuss quality and value with the families?

35. The College at Brockport’s Reaction to Demographic Changes and Market Realities Within Undergraduate Enrollment Management

36. Strategy #1 - Investment - Enrollment Management Positions & Reorganization

37. Enrollment Management Positions • Fill AVP with experienced professional from an Admissions or statistical background • Re-visioning Undergraduate Admissions • Re-purposing Associate and Assistant Director’s roles to become focused on recruitment strategies, special programs, daily operations and efficiencies. • E-recruiter/Communications Specialist • Enrollment Analyst

38. Enrollment Management Positions Investment: • Have any of your institutions engaged in a re-organization or re-visioning effort on your campusand what was the purpose of this exercise? • What have been the results of this re-organization on your campus? (i.e. campus buy in, fiscal ramifications, ROI increases)

39. Expanding the FunnelStrategy #2

40. Expanding the Funnel • Name-buy strategy – an additional 170,000 name-buys to expand the funnel • New York State • Increased SAT range from 1000-1300 to 900-1600 which resulted in an increase from 26,000 to 51,000 prospective students • Junior PSAT and ACT-Plan, senior SAT, ACT, NRCCUA and AP scores 3 and above • Out-of-state • Northern New Jersey • Northern Pennsylvania • Western Massachusetts • Vermont & New Hampshire

41. ROI from Funnel Expansion • Changes instituted in late 2012 • Largest number of applications in Brockport history! • Following a decrease of -.34% for Fall 2012 from Fall 2011, we experienced an Increase in # of Traditional 1st year applicants +3% in for Fall 2013. Current applications for Fall 2014 +11.43%

42. Expanding the Funnel How does the funnel impact your budget, the quality of the student body and your ultimate outcomes?

43. Financial LeveragingStrategy #3

44. Importance of Financial Aid in College Choice 90% of prospective college students consider financial aid/grant in aid an important factor influencing their college choice. Source: Education Dynamics 2010

45. “Moody's Analytics Warns Student Loans May Be The Next Financial Bubble To Burst” SOURCE:www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/08/09/moodys-student-loans-bubble-burst_n_922646.html

46. Why institutional aid is under pressure today in higher education • Federal grant aid to undergraduate students more than doubled in constant dollars between 2002‐03 and 2012‐13, increasing from 21% to 24% of the total $185.1 billion in undergraduate aid. • For graduates of public four-year colleges, average debt per graduate, including those who did not borrow, increased by 12% (from $10,600 to $11,900 in 2012 dollars) between 2001-02 and 2006-07, and by 20% (from $11,900 to $14,300) over the next five years. • For graduates of private nonprofit four-year colleges, average debt per graduate, including those who did not borrow, increased by 23% (from $15,400 to $19,000 in 2012 dollars) between 2001-02 and 2006-07, and by 3% (from $19,000 to $19,500) over the next five years Source: Trends in Student Aid 2013 – College Board http://trends.collegeboard.org/sites/default/files/student-aid-2013-full-report.pdf

47. National Factors Most Noted in Choosing a College 1. College has very good academic reputation (62.0 percent) 2. This college's graduates get good jobs (53.3 percent) 3. I was offered financial assistance (45.5 percent) 4. A visit to the campus (41.8 percent) 5. The cost of attending this college (41.0 percent) 6. College has a good reputation for social activities (39.5 percent) 7. Wanted to go to a college about this size (38.7 percent) 8. Grads get into good grad/professional schools (32.2 percent) 9. Wanted to live near home (19.0 percent) 10. Information from a website (17.9 percent) 11. Rankings in national magazines (16.7 percent) 12. Parents wanted me to go to this school (13.7 percent) 12. Admitted early decision and/or early action (13.7 percent) 14. Could not afford first choice (12.2 percent) 15. High school counselor advised me (9.6 percent) 16. Not offered aid by first choice (8.9 percent) 17. Athletic department recruited me (8.8 percent) 18. Attracted by religious affiliation/orientation of college (7.3 percent) 19. My teacher advised me (6.0 percent) Source: http://www.usnews.com/education/blogs/college-rankings-blog/2011/01/27/students-say-rankings-arent-most-important-factor-in-college-decision

48. Enrollment Investment #1 Ellsworth Scholar’s Sleepover Total Permanent allocated costs for Ellsworth Scholar Sleepover = $Low 20’s Return on Investment • 172 students attended the three Scholar’s Sleepover programs in 2013 • Of the 172 students who attended, 90 students deposited for a yield rate of 53.4%. All students who attended were awarded an Extraordinary Scholarship • Average revenue to Brockport for 90 students = $1,652,580 • Average revenue to Brockport based upon a 90 student yield and factoring in the average Extraordinary awarded to each student = $1,247,580* • Essentially, the college made a $258 investment per student (total permanent costs associated with the sleepover/90 students) that yielded a ROI of $13,862 per student

49. Leveraging FA Initiatives at The College at Brockport • Cross tabulated grid for ascertaining value of awarding dollars to students based upon GPA range and SAT/ACT score. • Honors scholarships targeting high ability students • Out of state recognition scholarships • Providing incentives for academically prepared students who are just out of the running for traditional scholarships at the college

50. Financial Leveraging • How is your institution aligning your financial aid awarding policies with your enrollment goals? • What are some strategies that you have implemented to maximize net tuition revenue?