Grexit: Memo to the Greek prime minister

1. Grexit: Memo to the Greek prime minister

2. The Crisis at a Glance Euro Area : The monetary union fundamentally lacks adjustment mechanisms to compensate for a lack of intra-regional nominal exchange rate adjustment. 1999-07 was phase of strong capital flows to peripheral countries; sharp reversal of these flows since has become increasingly stressful. Limited intra-regional labor mobility and, especially, pooled fiscal resources, puts adjustment burden on deficit countries’ government finances and creditworthiness. Financing programs currently funded by the EFSF, to be replaced by the ESM starting july 2012 following agreement on a new set of fiscal rules and changes to bailout funds, including the availability of a full €500 billion lending capacity from july on.

3. The Crisis at a Glance Greece:Sovereign lost bond markets access in May 2010. Dependent since on IMF7EU loans to fund fiscal deficit and redeem maturing term debt. General government debt rose to €360 billion at end-2011, of which €73 billion was owed to the IMF/EU. Eventual return to markets still considered doubtful despite €107 billion in debt reduction, reduced interest costs and deferred maturities under debt restructuring terms now agreed with private bondholders. Economy in deep recession; competitiveness inproving under pressure of high unemployment and large reductions in public sector wages but lagging reforms continue to hamper adjustment and constrain activity. Implementation will remain difficult amid rising popular discontent and lost faith in political leadership.

4. Continue course, by further implementing austerity measures, staying in the Eurozone. • Greece defaults on its public debt, but decides to stay in the Eurozone. • Greece defaults on its public debt and abandons the Eurozone. Options for the Greek Government

5. Pros Credibility Currency and Interest Rate stability inspires confidence in the international investment community Enables smaller countries and local firms to borrow at much lower cost from the markets Economic Integration  Growth for Euro Zone Overall Increased growth prospects of all members Homogenization of political, institutional and financial regulatory environment creates a robust system Increased Trade & Capital Inflows Minimal transaction costs (i.e. Currency Risk) Fiscal Support Mechanisms (“Cohesion Fund”) / Access to EU Structural Funds Investment Fund since 1994 to help reduce economic and social disparities Implementation of structural changes Structural changes required to be done within the Greek economy Greece to remain a member of the European Union Cons Austerity Measures Austerity measures deepen the economic recession. Current estimates indicate -5.6% GDP Growth for 2011, -2.6% for 2012 Civil Unrest Increasing discontent against EU policies and the domestic political establishment No current cohesive plan to spur investments and growth Current memorandum lacks planning for future growth opportunities Accept austerity measures – Stay in the Eurozone

6. Pros Credibility Currency and Interest Rate stability inspires confidence in international investment community Enables smaller countries and local firms to borrow at much lower cost from the markets Increased Trade & Capital Inflows Minimal transaction costs (i.e. Currency Risk) Fiscal Support Mechanisms (“Cohesion Fund”) / Access to EU Structural Funds Investment Fund since 1994 to help reduce economic and social disparities Implementation of structural changes Structural changes required to be done within the Greek economy Fiscal Metrics become sustainable faster Cons Huge losses on domestic Greek Debt creditors/ Bank runs Collapse of the domestic banking system and pension system Breach of Capital Markets Trust Markets have a strong memory– return on public markets may be severely prolonged Contagion effect Once Greece abandons the Eurozone, the entire Southern periphery may come under speculation attack Disorderly Default on Public Debt – Stay in the Eurozone

7. Pros Independence of monetary policy Regain control over money supply and floating exchange rate Increased Trade & Capital Inflows A weaker exchange rate could pose a valuable investment thesis for investors or foreign importers Avoidance of prolonged recession/ austerity measures Economic and employment growth may resume right away Fiscal Metric become sustainable sooner Cons Huge losses on domestic Greek Debt creditors/ Bank runs Collapse of the domestic banking system and pension system Drachmatization of all EUR assets and liabilities Losses on EUR denominated holders of Greek claims Excessive Macroeconomic Imbalances Inflation would shoot up 30%-40% Breach of Capital Markets Trust Markets find it hard to forgive – return on public markets may be severely prolonged Trade, Tariffs and Protectionism In the event of a domestic devaluation foreign unions are likely to greet the new currency with increased protectionist sentiment Departure from the EU A country departing from the Eurozone is departing from the Union as well Contagion effect Once Greece abandons the Eurozone, the entire Southern periphery may come under speculation attack Disorderly Default on Public Debt – Leave the Eurozone

8. Thesis: Stay in the Eurozone, while orderly restructure public debt Recommendation Promising signs for a brighter future Signs of fiscal convergence: Public debt evolution looks promising – given completion of the PSI and the realization of $50bio in privatization revenue. Primary Balance deficit reduced from -11% FY09 to -2% FY11. New Memorandum passed last week by 2/3 of the Greek Parliament shows political unity on a common goal. Specific sectors of the Greek Economy to start enjoying the benefits of real currency devaluation, with tourism receipts in 2011 showing a 20% increase. But more things need to be accomplished The long-anticipated privatization plan of state owned enterprises needs to start realising. Greek politicians and policy makers need to abandon practices of the past and unite under the common goal of saving the country from a financial disaster. European authorities need to provide the Greek public with a promising vision. A new Marshall plan for Greece needs to be devised mobilizing EU structural funds and institutions (EIB) Eliminate the deflationary bias with the ECB acting as a lender of last resort or through the issuance of Eurobonds. European countries and primarily Germany need to abandon the public critical stance against the Greek people and become part of the problem’s solution rather than a source of conservatism and ambiguity

9. Appendix

10. Appendix

11. Inflation Levels in core Eurozone economies German Benefits from the Euro Adaption Appendix

12. Creditors of Greek Debt Appendix

13. Appendix