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An introduction to Actuarial Development in China

An introduction to Actuarial Development in China. Li Xiaolin Key Research Institute of the Ministry of Education China Institute for Actuarial Science of CUFE Tel: (8610) 62288163 / (8610)80955777 Email ： li@ins.org.cn li.xl@126.com lixl@cias.edu.cn.

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An introduction to Actuarial Development in China

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  1. An introduction to Actuarial Development in China Li Xiaolin Key Research Institute of the Ministry of Education China Institute for Actuarial Science of CUFE Tel: (8610) 62288163 / (8610)80955777 Email：li@ins.org.cn li.xl@126.com lixl@cias.edu.cn The following views are those of the individual author and do not necessarily reflect official positions of any institute. Any errors or omissions are the responsibility of the author. China Center of Economic Index

  2. Doctor Li Xiaolin 李晓林, professor, Fellow Member of China Association of Actuaries中国精算师协会 the founder and the first Dean of China Institute for Actuarial Science (CIAS) of Central University of Finance and Economics(CUFE), the Key Research Institute of Ministry of Education of China, 教育部重点研究基地中央财经大学中国精算研究院 Chief Expert of China Center of Economic Index 中国经济指数中心 Vice president of China Pension Institute 中国年金研究会 Director of Insurance Institute of China 中国保险学会 Editor in chief of Actuarial Science精算研究 China Center of Economic Index

  3. Actuarial Development in China 1. China’s Insurance Market 2. Actuarial Evolution in China 3. China’s actuarial regulation & supervision: framework and practical provisions 4. The evaluation index system of life policies 5. China Index of Insurance Investment China Center of Economic Index

  4. 1. China’s Insurance Market China’s insurance industry has experienced rapid expansion over the past decade. As a result China is providing a great opportunity for both domestic and foreign insurance companies to be active in a rapidly growing with a huge population base. China Center of Economic Index

  5. 1. China’s Insurance Market 1.1 Incredible growth and large potential • After 25 years’ development, the total assets of China’s insurance industry hit 1 trillion RMB yuan in the end of April 2004. • Yet within less than three years, the second 1 trillion yuan was achieved at the end of 2006. • Then one year later, as of the end of 2007, the total asset of China’s insurance industry surpassed 2.9 trillion yuan. • In 2008, the total premium income of China’s insurance industry was 978.41 billion yuan (143.88 billion U.S. dollars), ranked No. 6 in the world. • At the mid of 2009, the total asset of China’s insurance industry were 3.7 trillion yuan. China Center of Economic Index

  6. 1. China’s Insurance Market 1.2 Growing number of insurers and fierce competition During the last fifteen years, China’s insurance business has really got going in earnest. As a result, the number for insurers is growing rapidly and the competition for premium dollars in the main market place for insurance, especially in the major cities, is being fiercer. China Center of Economic Index

  7. 1. China’s Insurance Market 1.2 Growing number of insurers and fierce competition By mid-2009, there are 78life insurers and 52nonlife insurers in China. Since China’s entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) in December 2001 has helped to open up the domestic industry to foreign insurers, there are now actually more foreign insurance companies than domestic companies in China. China Center of Economic Index

  8. 1. China’s Insurance Market 1.2 Growing number of insurers and fierce competition However, China’s insurance market is still dominated by the domestic companies. BY mid-2009, foreign insurers possess 4 percent of China’s life insurance market and 1 percent of the P & C insurance market. China Center of Economic Index

  9. 1. China’s Insurance Market 1.2 Growing number of insurers and fierce competition One frequently mentioned reason is that there are many formerly state-run enterprises in China with large assets and hundreds of thousands of employees thus providing group coverage to the employees of these companies is an effective way to possess the market. Successful products are copied quickly, yet to develop relationships with employers takes a long time. Thus local companies have home court advantage, in the group market especially. China Center of Economic Index

  10. 1. China’s Insurance Market 1.3 The enlarging coverage and fast-developing product lines The common types of coverage available in China are life, annuity, health, motor, commercial property and group health, yet the outlook ahead is for a continuation of rapid development consistent with the emerging demand, especial on agriculture insurance and pension plans. China Center of Economic Index

  11. 1. China’s Insurance Market 1.3 The enlarging coverage and fast-developing product lines Currently 80 percent of the Chinese population's employment is in agriculture therefore recent years the government is especially interested in developing agricultural insurance products. Besides, as the government moves away from a planned economy mode, it also removes state support for pension. The aging Chinese population, (exacerbated by the one-child policy, ) will face many retirement related problems, resulting in an urgent need to provide retirement income products. China Center of Economic Index

  12. 1. China’s Insurance Market 1.3 The enlarging coverage and fast-developing product lines Meanwhile the product lines in China are fastest-growing as well. Take the life insurance as example, as a result of the low interest rates insurers have been moving away from traditional fixed-rate products toward participating products and more investment-related products such as universal life, variable life and unit-linked products have also been introduced. China Center of Economic Index

  13. 1. China’s Insurance Market 1.4 The low public awareness of the value of insurance coverage • As in any developing market, the public needs to be convinced of the value of insurance coverage. • Instead of a necessary expenditure, many Chinese consumers consider the insurance premiums as an extra expense. • The insurance industry should take the main responsibility for this task and educate the public about its products and processes. • This is no way a short-term job, yet alternative approaches to insurance products may be required to achieve success which means that the products need to meet the specific needs of the consumers with realistic assumptions based as much as possible on the domestic experience. China Center of Economic Index

  14. 1. China’s Insurance Market 1.4 The low public awareness of the value of insurance coverage • To accommodate demanding customers, insurers need to reduce the cost of insurance products. • There are various cost saving approaches that can be tried, such as more intrusive underwriting, levelized commissions, and others. • These approaches may have proved to be unsuccessful in most of the foreign market due to legal / cultural limitations or conflict with entrenched interests, but may work in China’s market. China Center of Economic Index

  15. 2. Actuarial Evolution in China 2.1 The introduction of overseas Actuarial Education Systems • In 1992, with the assistance of ManuLife of Canada, SOA opened its first examination center in Nankai University. The first exam was held in November 1992. • From then on, SOA continued to set up other test centers in Fudan University at Shanghai, Hunan College of Finance and Economics at Changsha, The People’s University of China at Beijing, Zhongshan University at Guangzhou, China University of Science and Technology at Hefei, Shanxi College of Finance and Economics at Xi’an, and Pingan Insurance Company at Shenzhen. There were eight test centers in all. China Center of Economic Index

  16. 2. Actuarial Evolution in China 2.1 The introduction of overseas Actuarial Education Systems • In 1993, sponsored by the British Eagle Star Life Assurance Company, the Institute of Actuaries (“IoA”) established an actuarial training and test center at the Central Institute of Finance and Banking (now the Central University of Finance and Economics) in Beijing. • This marked the entry of British actuarial education into China. • Later, in 1998, IoA also set up another training and test center in the Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. China Center of Economic Index

  17. 2. Actuarial Evolution in China 2.1 The introduction of overseas Actuarial Education Systems • In March 1998, sponsored by Nippon Life, the Institute of Actuaries of Japan established two test centers, in the Southwest University of Finance and Economics in Chengdu and in China Finance College at Beijing. • This marked the entry of the Japanese actuarial profession into China. and the first exam was held from December 15-20, 1998. China Center of Economic Index

  18. 2. Actuarial Evolution in China 2.1 The introduction of overseas Actuarial Education Systems • In 2001, the Institute of Actuaries of Australia (IAAust) sponsored and organized a group of Australian actuaries and teachers to teach the Actuarial Control Cycle course in several Chinese universities (Southwest University of Finance and economics, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, People’s University of China, China University of Science and Technology etc.). China Center of Economic Index

  19. 2. Actuarial Evolution in China 2.2 The Chinese Actuarial Exams • On October 9, 1999, the CIRC held its first Chinese actuarial exam in Beijing. The exams lasted for one day, with one exam given in the morning and another one in the afternoon. The exams given were life insurance actuarial practice and insurance related regulation. • A month later, on November 20, CIRC published a passing list of forty- three candidates who had successfully taken the exams. • On December 4-5, 1999, CIRC held an actuarial seminar. On the seminar, CIRC presented the certificates to the forty three recognized Chinese actuaries. • The actuarial taskforce was reorganized and a leadership team was formed to lead the actuarial tasks. China Center of Economic Index

  20. 2. Actuarial Evolution in China 2.2 The Chinese Actuarial Exams • In September 2000, the first six textbooks for the Chinese actuarial qualification exams were published and organized by CIRC. • On December 15–17, 2000, CIRC held associate level actuarial exams with six subjects on the exam syllabus. • In September 2004, the Chinese actuarial exams were held in eleven test centers including one in Hong Kong. The exams included the entire Chinese actuarial exam curriculum and marked the completion of the Chinese actuarial exam system. China Center of Economic Index

  21. 2. Actuarial Evolution in China 2.2 The Chinese Actuarial Exams • In 2005, the Chinese actuarial exams were extended to two exam seasons, one held in spring and the other in autumn. • The spring exam was on associate level only and the autumn exam was on both associate and fellow levels. • In September 2005, two of the associate level subjects of casualty actuarial examinations were added into the existing Chinese actuarial examination system, 06G (Principles &Practice of General Insurance) and 08G (Technical Reserves for General Insurance). The first five fundamental subjects (01---05) are common for both life and non-life actuarial directions. China Center of Economic Index

  22. 2. Actuarial Evolution in China 2.2 The Chinese Actuarial Exams • IN 2009, the actuarial exam system reform program submitted by the CAA was approved by the CIRC and then released in April. • The new system of Chinese Actuarial Examination is expected to be started in the spring of 2011, and the existing examination system be annulled simultaneously. China Center of Economic Index

  23. 2. Actuarial Evolution in China 2.3 Statutory rules by laws and regulations on actuarial professionals The statutory responsibilities of the actuarial profession for life insurance were specified in the first version of the China Insurance Law in 1995, of which the Article 119 clearly required life insurance companies to employ actuarial professionals recognized by the regulator, as well as implementing an actuarial reporting system. The scope of the actuarial profession was expanded to the property/casualty and reinsurance areas in the updated version of the Insurance Law in 2003. Efforts have also been made to extend the scope of the actuarial profession to the pensions and social security areas. For the time being, however, the Chinese actuarial profession is still limited to and concentrated in the insurance industry. China Center of Economic Index

  24. 2. Actuarial Evolution in China 2.3 Statutory rules by laws and regulations on actuarial professionals • In 2004, two regulations were implemented in succession, which are the Regulation of Product Approval and Filing for Life Insurance (CIRC[2004], No. 76) and the Actuarial Work Notification for P&C Insurance Companies( CIRC[2004], No.145), requiring each insurance company to designate a qualified actuary as appointed actuary, subject to regulatory approval. • Actuaries qualified under Chinese exams and internationally qualified actuaries, such as CAS Fellows, are eligible to be appointed actuaries for insurance companies in China.    • The appointed actuaries are required to sign product filings, actuarial statement of reserves opinions, and solvency reports. China Center of Economic Index

  25. 2. Actuarial Evolution in China 2.3 Statutory rules by laws and regulations on actuarial professionals On January 1 2008, the Administrative Measures on Chief Actuaries of Insurance Companies (CIRC[2007], No. 3), originally promulgated by CIRC on August 28 2007 came into effect. On the same day, the relating requirements for each insurance company to designate an appointed actuary in the above rules were repealed. Consequently, the chief actuary is required to fulfill all the previously stipulated responsibilities of appointed actuaries in life, pension, and P&C insurance companies. China Center of Economic Index

  26. 2. Actuarial Evolution in China 2.4 The establishment of actuarial orgnizations 2.4.1 The actuarial taskforce • Before the establishment of the CIRC, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) had been the single supervisor for the financial services industry and responsible for the development of the Chinese actuarial profession. • On November 18, 1998, the China Insurance Regulatory Commission (CIRC) was established in Beijing. And the Actuarial Division under the Life Insurance Department immediately took over the responsibility of coordinating and promoting the actuarial profession in China. • Then in December 1999, on the actuarial seminar organized by CIRC the actuarial taskforce was re-organized and its leadership transferred to CIRC. • Besides, the decision was made to establish the China Association of Actuaries. China Center of Economic Index

  27. 2. Actuarial Evolution in China 2.4 The establishment of actuarial orgnizations 2.4.2 China Actuarial Work Committee of the Insurance Association of China (IAC) For various reasons, the goal of establishing the China Association of Actuaries was not achieved very soon after the meeting. As a transitional purpose, an actuarial working committee was formed under the Insurance Association of China (IAC) which was established on November 18, 2000. It was registered as a committee of IAC on July 9, 2001, named as China Actuarial Work Committee in Chinese and keeping the English name as the (preparing) China Association of Actuaries. China Center of Economic Index

  28. 2. Actuarial Evolution in China 2.4 The establishment of actuarial orgnizations 2.4.3 The China Association of Actuaries The long-planned society of Chinese actuaries was established on November 30, 2007, named China Association of Actuaries (CAA). It is set to be an unprofitable juridical association and is under the administration of CIRC. Soon after its establishment, CAA took the place of the China Actuarial Work Committee and began to handle all the activities of promoting the actuarial profession in China. China Center of Economic Index

  29. China’s actuarial regulation & supervision: framework and practical provisions 3.1 The evolving framework of China’s actuarial regulation 3.2 Practice provisions of China’s actuarial regulation 3.3 The transition towards a solvency-based supervisory regime China Center of Economic Index

  30. China’s actuarial regulation & supervision: framework and practical provisions 3.1 The evolving framework of China’s actuarial regulation It can be segmented into two stages, with the one before 2003 focusing on the regulation of product design and the succeeding one moving towards solvency-based regulation. focusing on the regulation of product design before 2003 • moving towards solvency-based regulation March 2003 China Center of Economic Index

  31. China’s actuarial regulation & supervision: framework and practical provisions 3.1 The evolving framework of China’s actuarial regulation • During the early years, China’s actuarial regulation mainly focused on insurers’ market behavior. Most attention been paid to the regulation of product design, product pricing and premium rating were strictly regulated. • Having been 6% since 1982, the prescribed pricing interest rate for life insurance products rose to 8.8% in 1988. • After then with the central bank having cut interest rates for 8 times, the prescribed pricing interest rate of life policies had been adjusted for 3 times and was set to be no more than 2.5% after the last adjustment of 1999. • From then on, though there been several adjustments on the banking interest rates, the prescribed pricing interest rate of life policies has no longer changed. China Center of Economic Index

  32. China’s actuarial regulation & supervision: framework and practical provisions 3.1 The evolving framework of China’s actuarial regulation • Table 1: The adjustment of pricing interest rate of life policies Year Pricing interest rate for Life products 1982 6% 1988 8.8% 1997 7.5%-- 8.8% 1998 6.5%-- 5% 1999 2.5% China Center of Economic Index

  33. China’s actuarial regulation & supervision: framework and practical provisions 3.1 The evolving framework of China’s actuarial regulation • In March 2003, CIRC promulgated the Provisions for the Administration of Insurance Company Solvency Quota and Regulatory Indices (CIRC[2003], No.1), indicating the beginning of China’s exploration for a solvency-based regulatory regime. • The primarily established supervisory framework was mainly based on the statutory minimum solvency margin, with insurers’ solvency risk being analyzed by 13 financial indicators. • Consequently, from year 2003, the deregulation of product pricing and premium rating started from motor insurance and the emphasis of actuarial regulation began to shift to the sufficiency of reserves. China Center of Economic Index

  34. China’s actuarial regulation & supervision: framework and practical provisions 3.1 The evolving framework of China’s actuarial regulation • On July 1 2004, the Administrative Measures on Examination, Approval and Filing of Personal Insurance Products (CIRC[2004], No.76) came into effect, with the scope of products subject to examination and approval specified to be: • (1)Products considered by the CIRC as products related to the public interest; • (2) Compulsory insurance products prescribed in law; • (3) Products considered by the CIRC as newly-developed life insurance products. • Products other than those specified types subject to filing with the CIRC. China Center of Economic Index

  35. China’s actuarial regulation & supervision: framework and practical provisions 3.2 Practice provisions of China’s actuarial regulation 3.2.1 The Chinese Life Insurance Mortality Table used as the basis for pricing, reserving, etc. • In late 1992, the People’s Insurance Company of China (PICC) issued a schedule for the construction of the Chinese Life Insurance Mortality Table requested by PBOC and the project was to be carried out in 1994. • The “Chinese Life Insurance Mortality Table, CL(1990-1993)” having been published by the PBOC on June 10, 1996, • the table (CL1990-1993) was effective April 1, 1997. China Center of Economic Index

  36. China’s actuarial regulation & supervision: framework and practical provisions 3.2 Practice provisions of China’s actuarial regulation 3.2.1 The Chinese Life Insurance Mortality Table The revision of the Chinese Life Insurance Mortality Table, CL (2000- 2003) was accepted and approved on November 12, 2005, and was published in December 2005. It has been used as the basis for pricing and reserving for all the life insurance products since January 2006. China Center of Economic Index

  37. China’s actuarial regulation & supervision: framework and practical provisions 3.2 Practice provisions of China’s actuarial regulation 3.2.2 Actuarial provisions of CIRC Since 1999, CIRC has been responsible for issuing actuarial regulation and practice standards. Table 2 is a list of main actuarial related regulations and relevant guidance notes issued by CRIC. Table 2: Actuarial related regulations issued by CIRC China Center of Economic Index

  38. China’s actuarial regulation & supervision: framework and practical provisions Table 2: Actuarial related regulations issued by CIRC Main Regulations : • Temporary Rules on Administration of Participating Insurance • 分红保险管理暂行办法 [2000] No.26 • Temporary Rules on Administration of Investment-Linked Insurance • 投资连结保险管理暂行办法 [2000] No.26 • Temporary Rules on Naming of Life Insurance Products • 人身保险产品定名暂行办法 [2000] No.42 • Temporary Rules on Administration of Life Insurance New Product Information Release • 人身保险新型产品信息披露管理暂行办法 [2000] No.6 • Actuarial Standards for Nonconventional Life insurance products • 人身保险新型产品精算规定 [2003] No.67 • Temporary Rules on Administration of Secondary Time Bond of Insurance Companies • 保险公司次级定期债务管理暂行办法 [2004] No.10 • Temporary Rules on Administration of Stock Investment of Insurance Industry Investors • 保险机构投资者股票投资管理暂行办法 [2004] No.12 China Center of Economic Index

  39. China’s actuarial regulation & supervision: framework and practical provisions • Rules on Administration of Non-Life Insurance Reserve of Insurance Companies • 保险公司非寿险业务准备金管理办法（试行） [2004] No.13 • Regulations on Administration of Insurance Companies • 保险公司管理规定 [2004] No.3 • Rules on Implementation of Administrative Ordinance of Foreign Insurance Companies of The People’s Republic of China • 中华人民共和国外资保险公司管理条例实施细则 [2004] No.4 • Regulation of product approval and filing for Life insurance • 人身保险产品审批和备案管理办法 [2004] No. 6 • Rules on Administration of Insurance Terms and Rate of Property & Casualty Insurance Companies • 财产保险公司保险条款和保险费率管理办法 [2005] No.4 • Rules on Administration of Health Insurance • 健康保险管理办法 [2006] No.8 • Regulations on Administration of Insurance Company Solvency • 保险公司偿付能力管理规定 [2008] No.1 • Rules on Administration of Insurance Security Fund • 保险保障基金管理办法 [2008] No.2 • Etc. China Center of Economic Index

  40. China’s actuarial regulation & supervision: framework and practical provisions 3.2.3 The actuarial reporting system • Report System for Technical Reserve Valuation by Life Insurance Companies, • January 20, 1998, PBOC As early as 1995, PBOC formed a research team to establish the “Actuarial Reporting System for the Chinese Life Insurance Business”. Completed in October 1997, the research provided technical support for PBOC to issue a series of policies on actuarial administration. On January 20, 1998, PBOC issued “Report System for Technical Reserve Valuation by Life Insurance Companies”. China Center of Economic Index

  41. China’s actuarial regulation & supervision: framework and practical provisions 3.2.3 The actuarial reporting system • In the Administration of Minimum Solvency Margin and regulatory Indicators for Insurance Companies (CIRC [2003] No.1) issued on March 24 2003 by CIRC, • each insurance company are required to submit CIRC an audited annual solvency report and un-audited quarterly solvency report starting from 2004. Table 3: the compilation rules for insurance companies’ solvency reports enacted by the CIRC China Center of Economic Index

  42. China’s actuarial regulation & supervision: framework and practical provisions Rules for the Compilation of Insurers’Solvency Reports Starting Year No.1：Fixed Assets, Land Use Rights, and Computer Softwares 固定资产、土地使用权和计算机软件 2004 No.2：Investment Assets 投资资产 2004 No.3：Receivables and Pepayments 应收及预付款 2004 No.4：Entrusted Investment Assets  委托投资资产 2005 No.5：Securities Repurchase 证券回购 2004 No.6：Ranking Liabilities 认可负债 2005 No.7：Investment-linked insurance投资连结保险 2005 No.8：Actual Capital 实际资本 2005 No.9：Comprehensive Income 综合收益 2005 No.10: Subsidiaries,Joint Ventures and Affiliated Companies 子公司、合营企业和联营企业 2007 No.11：Dynamic Solvency Testing for Life Insurers 动态偿付能力测试（人寿保险公司） 2006 No.12：Contents and Formats of Annual Reports年度报告的内容与格式 2007 No.13：Quarterly Reports 季度报告 2007 No.14：Insurance Groups 保险集团 2008 No.15：Reinsurance 再保险业务 2010 No.16：Dynamic Solvency Testing for Non-life Insurers (Draft ) 动态偿付能力测试（财产保险公司） Note 1: Published in Septemnber 2009, No.16 is.currently asking for comments China Center of Economic Index

  43. China’s actuarial regulation & supervision: framework and practical provisions 3.3 The transition towards a solvency-based supervisory regime By the year of 2005, taking into account the international experience of the three pillar system advocated by IAIS and proceeding from the actual conditions of China’s domestic insurance industry, the CIRC has established the regulatory regime composed by Five defensive lines: • internal control, • solvency supervision, • on-site examination, • asset management and • guarantee fund. Meanwhile, the framework of the regulatory regime has been continually strengthened and the relating regulations and rules have been established as well. China Center of Economic Index

  44. 4. The evaluation index system of life policies • Though China’s insurance industry has reached rapid development recent years, its insurance market mechanism is not perfect and has restricted its further development. • One of the bottlenecks comes from the lack of communication and coordination between buyers and sellers, and especially the buyer’s insufficient understanding of the main features of the products. • The evaluation index system of China life policies is designed for the purpose of increasing the transparency of insurance products and furthermore to deepen the insured’ understanding of various products. • By doing so, it can help reduce unnecessary disputes, enhance consumer confidence and accelerate the development of insurance industry as well. China Center of Economic Index

  45. 4. The evaluation index system of life policies • Currently, mainly focus of the evaluation index for policies lie on three aspects, which are the • protection degree, called protection index • investment value, called investment index and • service level, called service index China Center of Economic Index

  46. 4. The evaluation index system of life policies • The protection index mainly relates to the coverage and duration of policies, and especially the protection provided at the occurrence of accidental injuries or some other low-probability events. • The investment index was used to assess the policy's performance on saving and value increasing. • The service index focuses on the incidental services of the policy, such as the emergency rescue services provided by an accident insurance policy, mine risk management services attached to work-related injury insurance for underground miners, and so on. China Center of Economic Index

  47. 5. China Index of Insurance Investment China Center of Economic Index

  48. 5. China Index of Insurance Investment China Index of Insurance Investment is generally calculated by weighted approach with the base date and base-date value set to be January 1 2002 and 1000 respectively. More specifically, insurer’s investment assets is classified into 5 categories, including (1) equity investment, which is subcategorized into securities investment fund and equity securities; (2) Fixed Maturity Investment, which is subcategorized into Bonds, Term Deposits, Policy Loans, the bought-back securities, and loans to customers; (3) derivative financial assets; (4) investments in associated companies; and (5) property investment. China Center of Economic Index

  49. 5. China Index of Insurance Investment According to China’s Insurance Yearbooks, the assets of the top three life insurers(namely, China Life, Ping An and China Pacific Insurance)’ sum up to more than 80% of the total assets of the whole industry, thus their investment assets serve as excellent representative of all China’s life insurers’. With these three insurers’ financial statement data publically disclosed, each category’s share in the total investment are used as weights for the calculation of the Insurance Investment Index. China Center of Economic Index

  50. 5. China Index of Insurance Investment The financial statements containing the data of investment assets disclosed once every six months, the weights for the Insurance Investment Index are half-yearly adjusted as well. Besides, there being a postponement between the disclosure of the financial statements of listed companies and the actual accounting period, all the weights used in the calculation of the Insurance Investment Index are correspondingly delayed. China Center of Economic Index

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