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The AIRPACT-3 Photochemical Air Quality Forecast System: Evaluation and Enhancements

The AIRPACT-3 Photochemical Air Quality Forecast System: Evaluation and Enhancements. Jack Chen, Farren Thorpe, Jeremy Avis, Matt Porter, Joseph Vaughan, and Brian Lamb Laboratory for Atmospheric Research Washington State University.

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The AIRPACT-3 Photochemical Air Quality Forecast System: Evaluation and Enhancements

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  1. The AIRPACT-3 Photochemical Air Quality Forecast System: Evaluation and Enhancements Jack Chen, Farren Thorpe, Jeremy Avis, Matt Porter, Joseph Vaughan, and Brian Lamb Laboratory for Atmospheric Research Washington State University

  2. Tomorrow’s Air Quality: AIRPACT-3 Daily Forecast System • MM5(3.7.3) numerical mesoscale meteorological model • SMOKE(2.1): Sparse Matrix Operating Kernal for Emissions processing. • CMAQ (4.6): Community Multi-scale Air Quality model: • SAPRC-99 O3 & toxics chemistry • Aerosol (ver.4) in Aitken, accumulation, & coarse modes • Deposition of N, S, O3, & Hg species • 12 km x 12 km grid cells, 21 layers • Forecast to 64 hours daily PM species Nitrates Sulfates Organic aerosols Wind-Blown Dust (soon) PM2.5 total mass

  3. Gridded Emissions AIRPACT-3 Dynamic Emissions & IC/BC 2005 anthropogenic emissions (SMOKE) Updated Biogenic Emission Model (BEIS3) MM5/MCIP Meteorology from UW Weather Forecast System WSU Dairy NH3 Emissions Module Wild and Prescribed Fire Emissions (from BlueSky system) Dynamic Boundary Conditions: spatial & temporal variations from MOZART monthly diurnal average profiles CMAQ Daisy-chain Initial Conditions

  4. AIRPACT3, July, 2006 Ozone and Biogenic SOA Formation http://www.airpact-3.wsu.edu

  5. Retrospective long term evaluationAug – Nov, 2004(coincident with Columbia Gorge Visibility Monitoring program) • 8 hr daily maximum O3 • 24 hr daily maximum PM2.5 • Speciated PM2.5

  6. MM5 forecast performance results GFS initialization, CCM2 radiation scheme, Reisner-2 moisture microphysics parameterization, Kain-Fritsch cumulus parameterization and the MRF/Hong-Pan planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme

  7. Daily maximum 8 hr ozone results P/O vs Observed Timing errors (running 8 hr means)

  8. Ranked daily maximum 8 hr ozone for selected sites (Aug/Sept, 2004)

  9. Ranked speciated PM2.5 observations and predictions

  10. Enhancements to Airpact-3Wildfire emissions exported to Airpact-3 from the Forest Service BlueSky System BlueSky fire locations & size Predicted PM2.5 from fires SMOKE emissions processing for CMAQ

  11. Wildfire Contributions to Regional Ozone O3 with NOx from fires O3 without NOx from fires O3 difference Daily max O3 Sept 2 – 6, 2006

  12. Further developments • Nested domains (4 km grid cells) • Enhanced automatic evaluation • NASA products

  13. Collaborators & Acknowledgements • Collaborating research groups • USDA – Forest Service Don McKenzie & Sim Larkin • USDA – NRCS Susan O’Neill • Funding sources • NW-Airquest Consortium • NASA ROSES Decision Support System grant

  14. Initial evaluation results • Ozone 8 hr daily maxima • NMB = 6% and NME = 17% • Peak values correctly estimated • PM2.5 24 hr daily maxima • Daily FB range: -75% to +75%, mean FB = 3% • Daily FE range: 3% to 79%, mean FE = 50% • Speciated PM2.5 • Good match with NO3 observations • Split decision for NH4: Gorge sites underestimated • SO4 underestimated • OC and EC overestimated at peak levels (associated with wildfires)

  15. Enhancement of Airpact using satellite dataOMI-Aura Satellite Retrievals and AIRPACT-3 for NO2 U.S. retrieval AIRPACT-3

  16. OMI (American) OMI (Dutch) Urban NO2 along the I-5 corridor: OMI-AURA and Airpact AIRPACT

  17. Bias and error maps for Aug-Sept daily maximum 8 hr ozone Normalized mean bias Normalized mean error

  18. 24 hr PM2.5 Performance Time Series

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