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Trends in Northeastern South Carolina’s coastal climate & relationships with regional and global phenomenon

Trends in Northeastern South Carolina’s coastal climate & relationships with regional and global phenomenon. Ginger Ogburn-Matthews USC Baruch Marine Field Laboratory. Carolinas & Virginia Climate Conference October 20-21, 2009 Wilmington, NC. Outline Site Introduction

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Trends in Northeastern South Carolina’s coastal climate & relationships with regional and global phenomenon

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  1. Trends in Northeastern South Carolina’s coastal climate & relationships with regional and global phenomenon Ginger Ogburn-Matthews USC Baruch Marine Field Laboratory Carolinas & Virginia Climate Conference October 20-21, 2009 Wilmington, NC

  2. Outline • Site Introduction • Regional Setting: Watersheds • Local Long Term Trends with • Regional & Global Relationships • Overview • Needs & Future direction North Inlet Estuary Winyah Bay Estuary Hobcaw Barony 17,500 acres

  3. Georgetown, SC Univ. of S.C. Baruch Marine Field Laboratory NSF Long-Term Ecological Research (1981-1992) + NIWB NERR Program (1992-present) = >30 yr databases North Inlet Estuary North Inlet – Winyah Bay Nat’l Estuarine Research Reserve (~12,000 acres) Winyah Bay Estuary SC

  4. Long-term continuous time series from North Inlet Estuary, SC • Water Chemistry 1978 - present • Nitrogen (total whole, total filtered, particulate, ammonia, nitrate-nitrite) • Phosphorus (total whole, total filtered, particulate, orthophosphate) • Suspended sediment (total, inorganic, organic ) • Organic carbon (total, dissolved, particulate) • Chlorophyll a • Biological • Zooplankton (153 & 365 micron) since 1981 • Meiobenthos & Macrobenthos since 1974 • Nekton (fish, shrimp, & crab) since 1984 • Spartina alterniflora (marsh grass) since 1984 • Other • Marsh elevation & soil chemistry • Harmful algae • Marsh geomorphology & groundwater dynamics • Atmospheric deposition • Water Quality 1978 – presentMeteorological 1982 – present • Water temperatureAir temperature • Salinity Wind direction and speed • Dissolved oxygen Barometric pressure • Turbidity, pHSolar radiation • Water level (tides) Rain (1978-present) • Regional • Pee Dee River Discharge • Tropical Storms • Global • North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) • ENSO (New ONI V3b ERSST)

  5. North Inlet Estuary ~ 4100 acres of tidal marsh > 90% of 38 km2 watershed in natural condition ~ 50% volume exchange with ocean each cycle salinities usually >30 ppt

  6. watershedextends to SW VA • ~18,000 sq. miles • 3rd largest estuary on east coast • 5 rivers drain into the Bay Winyah Bay Estuary

  7. Pee Dee contributes ~80% to the total discharge but has been declining over the years

  8. N Pee Dee Discharge High North Inlet Winyah Bay Waters enter NI SW With SW wind, effects magnified

  9. Salinity inversely correlated with river discharge (r=-0.71;p<00001) Esp. strong negative winter & spring (r=-0.84) (ft3/s) River discharge is positively correlated to Rain, esp in fall & winter

  10. GOM’s ENSO Index from the NWS Climate Prediction Center’s Index Average Values for next year’s Winter (JFM) Correlations http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

  11. GOM’s ENSO Index* with Winter Pee Dee Discharge, Salinity, & Rain: 1981-2008 at North Inlet, SC River Discharge: Positive r=0.34 p=0.08 Salinity: Negative r=-0.34 p=0.07 Rain: Positive r=0.48 p=0.01 No Correlation with Water Temperature ** Blue Bars = EL Nino Years; 29 yr average=10.0” **Red Bars La Nina years ** NOAA/EarthSystemResearchLab/Physical Sciences Division http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/cathy.smith/best/table33.txt * NWS Climate Prediction Center

  12. Winter Salinity fluctuations and the timing of ENSO events at North Inlet 1981-2008 * EL = Strong, el = weak EL LA = Strong La Nina, la = weak LA * NOAA/EarthSystemResearchLab/Physical Sciences Division long-term average 31.8ppt Spring Effect EL-Strongest of Century LA EL EL EL el el EL LA LA LA EL LA LA Winter El Nino events: stronger the event greater the rainfall and river runoff lower the salinity

  13. Rain: No Long-Term trends over the last 31 years, except for… Rain: summer increase; total = 6.7 inches y = 0.2228x - 426.43 R2=0.15; p=0.04 r=0.44; p=0.01

  14. Summer salinity & Number of Tropical Disturbances at North Inlet change: -3.2 psu, p = 0.03 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 4 1 2 3 2 1 1 5 1 1 change: -2.7 psu, p = 0.07 Summer (& Fall) salinity inversely correlated with: Rainfall and River discharge & frequency of Tropical Disturbances with heavy rain http://www.dnr.sc.gov/climate/sco/Publications/page_tropical_storm_reports.php

  15. What’s up with Water Temperature? Long-Term Trends? Relationships?

  16. Water temperature: significant long-term increase change: + 0.9oC (+1.6oF) N= 118 seasons; p= 0.01 Winter Fall: +1.8oC p=0.04 change: + 2.1oC (+3.8oF) N= 29; p= 0.01

  17. Winter Water Temperature: significant Correlation with NAO Not significant with any other season Spearman Correlation: r=0.44 p=0.02 Linear Regress: R2=0.26; p=0.006 Publication: DM Allen, V Ogburn-Matthews, T Buck, & EM Smith. 2008. Mesozooplankton Responses to Climate Change and Variability in a Southeastern US Estuary (1981-2003). Journal of Coastal Research. Special Issue 55: 95-110.

  18. Implications for Biological Effects Fish, shrimp & crab sampling site Zooplankton sampling site

  19. Earlier Arrival dates (recruitment) into North Inlet Example: brown shrimp postlarvae - earlier in recent years, long-term trend: r2 = 0.33 p = 0.001 - positive correlation with water temperature: r = 0.37p< 0.001 2007 2005 2003 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 1983 1981 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

  20. Depressed abundances with decreasing summer salinity Example: Total Epibenthic Zooplankton

  21. Summary:some changes are evident - decreasing salinity trend due to episodic events winter- spring: increasing frequency of ENSO (rain & river discharge) summer-fall: incr rain from incr frequency of tropical storms • *decrease in zooplankton abundance - overall decreasing river discharge - increasing water temperature , especially in winter: significant correlation with NAO index *earlier ingress of some winter shrimp and fish larvae

  22. Needs Assistance with averaging daily wind data for monthly & seasonal analyses (need vectorization)

  23. Future direction & other analyses • Include into our long-term analysis: • Wind vector data • Bermuda High index • Gulf stream anomalous temperature data • Other suggestions? Dec 1985 Apr 2002 Any collaborators? Any other long term coastal datasets?

  24. Acknowledgements: Thanks to the more than 150 investigators, technical staff , and students who participated in field collections, experiments, sample analysis, data management, and/or interpretation of results over the past 30 years. Special thanks to: Dr. Dennis Allen, P. Kenny, & T. Buck + other past and present staff of the Baruch Institute USC Funding support primarily from: NSF : North Inlet Long-Term Ecological Research Program (1981-1992) NOAA : North Inlet- Winyah Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve (1993 – present) Baruch Marine Field Laboratory, Univ. of SC Georgetown, SC

  25. http://links.baruch.sc.edu/Data/index.html Ginger Ogburn-Matthews Real Time Water Quality & Weather http://cdmo.baruch.sc.edu/niwKiosk.cfm

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