Update on (WMO) Polar Activities for CAS MAN

1. Update on (WMO) Polar Activities for CAS MAN Øysten Hov, Vladimir Ryabinin WMO; CAS Man, 23-25 April 2014

2. Main avenues of development WWRP PPP – dedicated presentation Wed (incl. PCPI+) IPCC AR5: WG I: polar Issues - in many chapters WG II: in several chapters, esp. Ch 28 “Polar Regions” WMO (ECPORS - Antarctic, Observations, Research, Services and Third Pole/High Mountain Regions) WCRP and CliC Activities of other organizations Overarching IPY – IPD – IPI – IPPI WMO

3. Ch 28 “Polar Regions”, Arctic Heterogeneity of climate change impacts because of the high diversity of social systems, bio-physical regions and associated drivers of change, including demography, culture and economic development. Rate of change mayexceed the rate at which some of their components can successfully adapt. True for Arctic communities with narrowly based economies that leave a smaller range of adaptive choices. Impacts on the health and well-being of Arctic residents from climate change are significant and projected to increase – especially for many indigenous peoples. Temperatures, thawing of permafrost and changing precipitation to affect infrastructure and related services in the Arctic. Shifts in the timing and magnitude of seasonal biomass production could disrupt matched phenologies in the food webs, leading to decreased survival of dependent species. Some marine species will shift their ranges. Sea ice reduction is primary concern for polar bears. Ocean acidification has the potential to inhibit embryo development and shell formation of some zooplankton and krill in the Polar Regions with potentially far-reaching consequences to food webs in these. WMO

4. ECPORS (Observations) Operational and research observing networks in Polar Regions should be integrated within the framework of WIGOS and WIS: observing networks in Polar Regions to be enhanced to include cryosphere related variables Integrate all Antarctic networks into an AntON that will comprise all operational stations, all of which should produce climate messages, reduce costs of RT data transmission for research-funded stations Advocate for expanded AMDAR coverage in polar regions Ensure WMO contributes to SAON network inventories Move forward on Arctic-HYCOS WMO

5. From ECPORS(5) presentation on related WMO Initiatives GAW: • the inadequate and diminishing atmospheric composition observation networks to support research and understanding of the rapid changing Polar Regions remains a concern. There were no new GAW stations established in Polar Regions since previous session of EC-PORS. • it is difficult to assess if the current network configuration addresses adequately the issues relevant to polar regions or not. • EC-PORS is requested to work with GAW in highlighting the importance to Members for submission of data which are required to understand the processes relevant to the Arctic and Antarctic. • GCW, with IASOA, is considering GAW stations as CryoNet sites, building them into GCW reference or integrated sites – sustained support for GAW stations would benefit GCW and CryoNet ECPORS considers expressing concern about diminishing GAW networks WMO EC-PORS-5 – Wellington, New Zealand, February 2014

6. Global Cryosphere Watch ECPORS Agreed to the proposed GCW working structure, the TOR, and the membership of the GCW Steering Group. Approved the process for the establishment of CryoNet, including its initial sites and criteria for inclusion of the candidate sites into CryoNet. Will advocate on the importance of Regular Budget funding for the core GCW functions. WMO Climate issues for ECPORS • Through WCP • Develop cross-regional RCCs and define the scope of Arctic and Antarctic RCCs • Establish & sustain new RCOFs …in Polar Regions GIPPS (tomorrow)

7. Governance& Support + Co-sponsored activities and projects with: GCOS, GOOS, GTOS, WWRP, IGBP and its projects, IOC, SCOR, … + 4 project offices & 1 Support unit Methods Integrative Grand Challenges PCPI Disciplinary science

8. Main polar activities of other organizations and how WMO participates: IASC (ICARP III) - via WCRP/CliC SCAR (Horizon Scan) – via WCRP/CliC AC TFSC – seeking observer status with AC AACA – via WCRP SWIPA – via WCRP/CliC PAME AMSA -reflected inECPORS services document AHDR II – AOS, SAON: secretariat participation SOOS – via WCRP/CLIVAR GCW, GIPPS, AntON, PSTG agencies JCOMM, GOOS ETSI + IICWG WCRP/SCAR IPAB IABP There is no agreed international plan for the development of the Arctic Ocean OS

9. International Polar Partnership Initiative Society Economy Environment • Changes in the Polar Regions have very significant global implications and are anticipated to increase in the decades to come. “What happens in the poles does not stay in the poles” Arctic, Antarctic and the Southern Ocean, alpine regions Fast and dramatic transformations in the polar regions profoundly impact their environment, economy and the life of local residents. Change is outpacing our understandingof the Arctic and the Antarctic and our ability to provide knowledge for decision-making in polar-related activities

10. Are key polar problems adequately addressed? Does previous R&D, i.e. under IPY, make it possible to address the locally- and globally- important issues? Outcomes of IPY + other R/D: all solutions exist as prototypes. “From knowledge – to action” Resources! No organization nor any nation can effectively achieve its objectives in the Polar Regions without coordination and sharing resources. Need for a fundamental change in approach. Increased efficiency of using funding, the ability to do more with less ; high quantifiable return on investment in observations, R&D; focus on practical use of the research outcomes; Key: cooperation, coordination, and sharing the resources towards achieving an agreed set of socially valuable regional & global goals Main polar issues are not addressed at present as effectively as needed.The current failure to effectively address these issues will be felt globally and much stronger by future generations.

11. IPPI: Agreement to cooperate, Framework, Implementation Plan Promote cooperation in research on human and natural processes in the poles and help to identify synergies and effectively use existing resources to address important polar issues of common interest. Engage multiple stakeholders and support the activities that are relevant to societal issues and benefit from enhanced collaboration and coordination. Research Specifically, IPPI aims to: • Create, upgrade, and maintain necessary polar components of observing, assessment, prediction, and services systems; • Strengthen interdisciplinary/multiplatform data collection, search and rescue, exchange, archival and access, and related interoperability; • Build long-term capacity in the communities of polar scientists and practitioners providing services; and • Develop a common language and cooperative synergistic relations between local peoples, social and natural scientists, and practitioners. Observations Services Users, people

12. Critical aspects of WMO EC PORS comments on IPPI Concept • Lack of clarity in purpose (?) • Not clear what additional strengths or activities will be derived that could not be achieved using existing mechanisms (ObsSs?) • WMO focuses on the Global Cryosphere Watch,Global Integrated Polar Prediction System andYear of Polar Prediction (role of cooperation as partners with IASC, SCAR, AMAP, social research?) • ECPORS for WMO remains the main coordinating mechanism, especially for Antarctic and Third Pole • Need that IPPI add value to own WMO efforts • Concern that focus and resources may be diverted (the opposite is true) • Request to present Concept update to ECPORS for further consideration at EC-66 The IPPI needs to be elaborated much further, beyond Concept, to truly demonstrate its potential and value. First step – identification of common priorities and interests Second step – preparation of a draft Implementation Plan

13. IPPI: status The International Polar Year and beyond - Concise (5 p.) Concept following the ideas of IPI - as requested by WMO in 2013. - Enthusiasm in the Steering Group + new Partners, e.g. - Clear understanding of highly economical nature of IPPI (e.g. “microsecretariat”) • - Understanding that IPPI is 100% compatible with “bottom-up” research planning undertaken by IASC (ICARP III), SCAR (HS), AMAP (AACA), YOPP, IAHDP-2- ECPORS-5 reaction, ASSW assigned IPPI to implement ICARP III outcomes - SCAR on board, AC positive, some interested nations… - A timetable of development Observing Systems Data Access AACA Scientific Cooperation Horizon Scan YOPP Next Generation 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2004