WMO Priorities and Perspectives on IPWG São José dos Campos, Brazil, 15-19 October 2012

1. WMO Priorities and Perspectives on IPWG São Josédos Campos, Brazil, 15-19 October 2012 Stephan Bojinski WMO Space Programme

2. World Meteorological Organization (WMO) • Founded 1950, successor to IMO (1873) • Specialized agency of the United Nations for meteorology (weather and climate), operational hydrology and related geophysical sciences (e.g., atmospheric chemistry, oceanography, agriculture); • UN “authoritative voice” • 189 Member states and territories; “Permanent Representatives” • Promote, foster, facilitate world-wide cooperation, with a focus on National Meteorological and Hydrological Services

3. WMO Programmes + Co-sponsored Programmes: GCOS, GOOS, GTOS, IPCC, …

4. WMO High-level Priorities 2012-2015 • Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) • Integration of observation and information systems (WIGOS/WIS) • Disaster risk reduction • Support to aviation • Capacity building (from WMO Strategic Plan 2012-2015)

5. WMO Space Programme Activities Observations:RequirementsMission/orbit plansGap analysesInter-Calibration Training & Awareness:Virtual LabRegional projectswww.wmo.int/sat Products: SustainabilityQualityISWGsSCOPE-CMSCOPE-NWC WIGOSGFCS Data Dissemination& Access:Timeliness, Standards, Tools

6. Source: wmo.int/oscar ObservingSystem CapabilitiesAnalysis and Review Tool WMO (and related) Requirements for observations of precipitation

7. Use of satellite precipitation estimates (WMO Survey 2012, 226 responses) Sat precipitation-related WMO Activities • Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) • Flash Flood Guidance System (FFGS) – Regional Projects • SCOPE-CM – climate data records • SCOPE-Nowcasting – regional harmonization of nowcasting products

8. 1. SWFDP (E.g.: Eastern Africa, Lake Victoria) • SWFDP Main Goals: • Improve Severe Weather Forecasting • Improve lead-time of Warnings • Improve interaction of NMHSs with users • Focus on: • Strong winds • Heavy precipitation • Hazardous waves (Indian Ocean and Lake Victoria) • Dry spells • Users: general public, disaster management, media, agriculture and fisheries • Global Centres: ECMWF, UKMO, NOAA/NCEP (NWP guidance material) • MSG satellite products (EUMETSAT products) • Regional Centre: RSMC Nairobi • National Met. Centres: Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda and Ethiopia

9. 2. Flash Flood Guidance Systems in Regions • Development and implementation of regional flash flood guidance (FFG) and early warning systems • Regional development of technology, training, procedures to address the issues of mitigating the impacts of flash floods • Adapted FFG system implemented in Central America, Black Sea region, Pakistan, Mekong basin • FFG is an estimate of how much rainfall over a specified time in a small basin is needed to initiate flooding on small streams

10. 2. Flash Flood Guidance: Schematic Source: Hydrologic Research Centre, Central America 10

11. 3. SCOPE-CM: Sustained Co-Ordinated Processing of Environmental Satellite Data for Climate Monitoring • Coordinated international network of space agencies (…) to produce Climate Data Records (ECV records) from multi-agency satellite data • SCOPE-CM conducts projects to jointly elevate CDR generation capabilities to a higher maturity level, aiming at • Sustained CDR production • Increased knowledge, methodologies and capabilities • Maximized benefit from investments through coordination and cooperation • SCOPE-CM is connected with relevant stakeholders: • WMO, GCOS, CEOS, GEO, CGMS/GSICS, WCRP/GEWEX, ESA (observer) • Phase I (2008-2012) completed: Clouds/aerosols (AVHRR), TWV/LWP (SSM/I), Surface albedo (GEO), AMV, UTH → Call for proposals for new SCOPE-CM projects in January 2013 Invite IPWG to contribute project on precipitation climatology

12. 4. SCOPE-Nowcasting (NWC) - Outline • Sustained, Co-Ordinated Processing of Environmental Satellite Data for Nowcasting (SCOPE-NWC) initiative • Ensuring continuous, sustained provision of consistent satellite products for nowcasting and severe weather risk reduction

13. 4. SCOPE-Nowcasting (NWC) - Objectives • Provide a mechanism through which satellite data/products can be made available simply and quickly • Primarily for users in the NMHSs of smaller or developing nations, where expertise and facilities for processing and utilizing satellite data may be limited or non-existent • Also for more advanced nations where there may be efficiencies possible through combining resources, expertise, and efforts

14. 4. SCOPE-NWC: Concept of operations ! Establishing a collaborative network ! Among experts, user institutions and satellite operators ! To include IPWG, WWRP, SWFDP

15. 4. SCOPE-NWC Pilot project outlines

16. 4. SCOPE-NWC Pilot project outlines

17. Summary I: General WMO recommendations to IPWG • Evaluate and assess methods and datasets • Harmonize quality assessment and verification • Develop best practices and access/interface tools • Assist in integration and interoperability of rainfall estimates from different sources • Many WMO application areas require satellite precipitation estimates: weather, hydrology, climate, cryosphere, ocean, … • Develop concise high-level recommendations (<5) to WMO/CGMS

18. Summary II • WMO emphasizes its support to IPWG • Encourages IPWG to • Discuss scientific state-of-the-art • Take action to leverage research for operations • IPWG encouraged to contribute to SCOPE-CM • IPWG encouraged to contribute to SCOPE-NWC

19. Thank you!

20. From Global to Regional to Local Computational Core Global/Regional Observations & ATM Model Forecasts Adjustments and Warning Core Computational Component Local Products & Uncertainty Local Data Local or Country Warning Generation System (e.g., WFO or NMHS) Regional Centers (Hydromet expertise) Local or Country Warning Dissemination System 1. Decisions are made with multiple datasets and under uncertainty 2. There is a need to modify the products of the global/regional system locally and have capability for estimating consequences to local variables of interest Public Warnings

21. WMO Space Programme Activities Observations:RequirementsMission/orbit plansGap analysesInter-Calibration • In support of: • Weather • Climate • Water • Disaster Risk Reduction • Hydrology • Cryosphere • Space Weather Training & Awareness:Virtual LabRegional projectswww.wmo.int/sat Products: SustainabilityQuality SCOPE-CMSCOPE-NWC WIGOSGFCS Data Dissemination& Access:Timeliness, Standards, Tools

22. SCOPE-NWC Products • Products need to be consistent across platforms and use standard formats • Useful in the forecasting range zero to six hours where, in the case of NWP, current model forecasting capability is limited. • Four broad categories of SCOPE-NWC products • Basic (Atmospheric) Nowcasting Products: these are primarily products used qualitatively, such as visible and infrared imagery, RGB composites and enhancements, fog detection and cloud products; • Advanced (Atmospheric) Nowcasting Products: these include quantitative products requiring the application of algorithms for their generation; products such as precipitation, atmospheric motion vectors, stability indices, total precipitable water, convective initiation and sounding products, and other products to support aviation such as turbulence or aircraft icing potential; • Realtime Ocean Products: these include scatterometer data for sea surface winds and sea state data from altimetry; and • Realtime Atmospheric Composition Products: these include fire detection, smoke, sand and dust, aerosols and volcanic ash