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Современные проблемы ядерной энергетики Профессор Мурогов В.М. 2009

Современные проблемы ядерной энергетики Профессор Мурогов В.М. 2009. Современные проблемы ядерной энергетики Лекция 1. Введение. Современное состояние ядерной энергетики в мире. Nuclear Power Today: At a glance. 372 GWe installed (approx 11% of global generating capacity)

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Современные проблемы ядерной энергетики Профессор Мурогов В.М. 2009

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  1. Современные проблемы ядерной энергетикиПрофессор Мурогов В.М.2009

  2. Современные проблемы ядерной энергетикиЛекция 1. Введение. Современное состояние ядерной энергетики в мире

  3. Nuclear Power Today: At a glance • 372 GWe installed (approx 11% of global generating capacity) • 15% of global electricity supply • More than 13,000 reactor-years of operating experience • A proven technology that provides clean electricity at predictable & competitive costs • Continuously improved economic & safety performance

  4. Nuclear power today: On 1 January 2008, 439 nuclear power plants (NPPs) operated in 30 countries worldwide, with a total installed capacity of 371900 MWe. 400 “Where does nuclear power go from here?” 350 300 250 GWe installed 200 150 100 50 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

  5. Status of Nuclear Powerin 2006 • About 13 000 reactor years of experience • 439 power reactors in operation (installed capacity about 372 GWe) • Average plant load factor: >80% • Contributions to global electricity: ~15% • Low electricity cost, good safety records • 2new NPPs connected to the grid. • 5 constructions started, • 37 reactors under construction

  6. Current status: October 2008 In operation 439 nuclear power reactors [372 GW] • USA 104 • France 59 • Japan 55 • Russia 31 • S. Korea 20 • UK • Germany

  7. Current status: October 2008 Under Construction 37 nuclear power reactors • China 8 • Russia 7 • India 6 • RoK 4 • Bulgaria 2 • Ukraine 2 • Japan 2

  8. Hydro 16.0% Renewables 2.2% Coal 40.3% Nuclear 15.2% Natural gas Oil 19.7% 6.6% Structure of global electricity supply Global electricity generation in 2008: 18,235 TWh

  9. France 78% Belgium 54% Rep. Korea 40% Switzerland 37% Japan 30% Russia 16% USA 19% China 2% S. Africa 4% Nuclear share of electricity (2008)

  10. Nuclear power in weapons and non-weapons states(recent situation) Few companies (Rosatom (Russia), URENCO, USEC (USA), EURODIF (France), CNNC (China) and JNFL (Japan)can enrich uranium on industrial scale. Few countries (France, UK, Russia, Japan, India and China) have nuclear fuel reprocessing capacities. Few countries have advanced fast reactor developments (Russia, France, Japan, India,China and USA).

  11. Countries are going to use nuclear energy during 2015-2030 and taking some initial actions for that. Latin America: 3 + 2 expected new (Chile, Peru); Western Europe: 9 +3 expected new (Italy, Portugal, Turkey); Eastern Europe: 10 + 3 expected new (Belarus, Kazakhstan, Poland); Africa: 1 +5 expected new (Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Tunis); Middle East&South Asia: 3 + 1 expected new (Bangladesh); South East Asia&the Pacific: 0 + 4 expected new (Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand); Far East: 3+ 3 expected new (North Korea, Philippines, Vietnam). In total about 21 new countries are considering to start using nuclear energy during 2015-2030.

  12. Текущее положение Промышленные действующие АЭС (май 2008) 439 Мощность, GW(e) 372 Число стран 30 Производство электричества (2003), TWh 2524(15%) Оперативный опыт, реактор-год 12800 Строящиеся АЭС 37(20 в Азии) мощность, GWe 35

  13. Действующие и строящиеся ядерные реакторы в мире Действующие реакторы Строящиеся реакторы Ядерное электричество, поставляемое в 2002г Полный оперативный опыт на декабрь 2003 Страна No MW(e) No MW(e) % TW*h Годы Месяцы Аргентина 2 935 1 692 5.39 7.23 50 7 Армения 1 376 2.09 40.54 36 3 Бельгия 7 5760 44.74 57.32 191 7 Бразилия 2 1901 13.84 3.99 25 3 Болгария 4 2722 20.22 47.30 129 2 Канада 16 11323 70.96 12.32 486 11 Китай 8 5977 3 2610 23.45 1.43 39 1 Чехия 6 3548 18.74 24.54 74 10 Финляндия 4 2656 21.44 29.81 99 4 Франция 59 63363 415.5 77.97 1346 2 Германия 18 20643 162.25 29.85 648 0 Венгрия 4 1755 12.79 36.14 74 2

  14. Действующие и строящиеся ядерные реакторы в мире (продолжение) Действующие реакторы Строящиеся реакторы Ядерное электричество, поставляемое в 2002г Полный оперативный опыт на декабрь 2003 Страна No MW(e) No MW(e) % TW*h Годы Месяцы Индия 14 2550 8 3622 17.76 3.68 223 5 Японии 53 44139 313.81 34.47 3 3696 1123 7 19 15850 113.13 38.62 220 8 Респ. Корея 1 1040 Литва 1 1160 36 6 12.9 80.12 Мексика 2 1310 9.35 4.07 23 11 Нидерланды 1 449 3.69 4.00 59 0 Пакистан 2 425 1.80 2.54 35 10 Румыния 1 655 1 655 5.11 10.33 7 6 Россия 30 20793 3 2825 129.98 15.98 761 4 Словакия 6 2442 2 776 17.95 54.70 103 0

  15. Действующие и строящиеся ядерные реакторы в мире (продолжение) Действующие реакторы Строящиеся реакторы Ядерное электричество, поставляемое в 2002г Полный оперативный опыт на декабрь 2003 Страна TW*h Годы Месяцы No MW(e) No MW(e) % 1 656 5.31 40.74 22 3 Словения Юж. Африка 2 1800 11.99 5.87 38 3 Испания 60.28 25.76 219 2 9 7584 Швеция 65.57 45.75 311 1 11 9451 25.69 39.52 143 10 Швейцария 5 3220 13 11207 4 3800 73.38 45.66 279 10 Украина Велико- британия 27 12052 81.08 22.43 1329 8 104 98298 780.10 20.34 2871 8 США Всего 12800 2524 16 442369 26 23 • Прим.: Итог включает следующие данные Тайваня, Китая: • 6 ед., 4884 MW(e) действующих; 2 ед., 2600 MW(e) строящихся • 33.94 TW*h выработки электроэнергии , представляет 20,53% от общего количества выработки 2002 года • 134 года и 1 месяц от общего эксплуатационного опыта

  16. Nuclear CapacityDevelopment Construction Profile Other Developing Countries China & India Jap & RoK CIS & EE W. Europe North America

  17. North America Western Europe Eastern Europe & CIS Asia Development of regional nuclear generating capacities

  18. A history of mistaken forecasts In 1975 IAEA still forecast, globally 1990: 1000 – 1300 GW(e) 2000: 3600 – 5300 GW(e) Actual 2008 capacity is just about 372 GW(e)

  19. Reasons for the mid 1980s stagnation: • Energy efficiency improvements • Economic restructuring • Significant drop in electricity demand • Excess generating capacity • Oil (traded fossil energy) price collapse • Advent of the high-efficient cheap gas turbine technology (GTCC) • Electricity market liberalization & privatization

  20. Reasons for the mid 1980s (and beyond) stagnation : • Little regard for supply security • Regulatory interventions after Three Mile Island • High interest rates • Chernobyl • Break up of the Soviet Union All the above together: Nuclear power out of favour (poor economics and lack of demand)

  21. Nuclear Fuel Cycle

  22. Spent fuel in storage around the world: historical data through 2005 plus projections through 2020

  23. U-238 - 86,7% Coal - 8,7% U-235 - 0,4% Gas - 3,4% Oil - 0,8% Relative energy content of Russian natural fuel resources

  24. Symbiotic Fuel Cycles

  25. Spent fuel and waste from a 1,000 MW nuclear power plant operating(1) for 60 years 1) Decommissioning waste volumes are included

  26. Summary Fuel Cycle • Extensive worldwide experience of the two main fuel cycles • Reprocessing • Direct disposal • 60 years of experience for mining, milling, enrichment, storage and transport. • Disposal of lower active wastes for decades • Disposal of spent fuel and high level wastes within 15 – 20 years. • The 3 P issue: Parity, Proportionality, Priority

  27. Ядерные боеголовки1945 - 2000

  28. Owner Controlled Area Protected Area Double Fence Protected Area Vital Area Access Control Points Nonproliferation and Nuclear Security Nuclear Nonproliferation:To curb and prevent the spread of nuclear weapons, their delivery means, and related materials and technologies. Nuclear Security:The prevention and detection of and response to theft, sabotage, unauthorized access, illegal transfer or other malicious acts involving nuclear material, other radioactive substances, or their associated facilities.

  29. Status of major non-proliferation and security conventions and treaties (as of April 2008)

  30. What is unique to nuclear is non-proliferation • Preventing the misuse of nuclear materials for non-peaceful purposes needs special attention • It is an area where IAEA has a strict mandate • Non-proliferation is a political problem • NPT regimes needs strengthening

  31. Non-proliferation – The NPT • The basis for current non proliferation efforts is the Treaty on Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) – both non-proliferation and disarmament • NPT Review Conference in May 2005 considered strengthening verification and inspections (i.e., universal adoption of so-called Additional Protocol) – No progress made • Nuclear fuel cycle in non weapon states has become a major focus of NPT by default

  32. The elements of non-proliferation

  33. Выработка АЭС электричества на душу населения (2006)

  34. Nuclear Energy and Society Bjorn Wahlström

  35. IAEA statute • ARTICLE II:Objectives • The Agency shall seek to accelerate and enlarge the contribution of atomic energy to peace, health and prosperity throughout the world. It shall ensure, so far as it is able, that assistance provided by it or at its request or under its supervision or control is not used in such a way as to further any military purpose.

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