Political Opinions of St. Peter Students Compared to Those of National Polls

1. Political Opinions of St. Peter StudentsCompared to Those of National Polls Shawn Gordon John Maier Matthew MacDonald

2. “The political opinions of St. Peter students will relate closely with the national polls, with a few exceptions.” • The Bloc will have significantly lower support among St. Peter’s students • Liberal support will be higher at St. Pete’s than Nationally • Pro-Life Support will be much higher in St. Pete’s • Support for the death penalty will be lower than the national average

3. "Far-right" ideologies and movements often advocate substantial intervention, typically government intervention, in society in order to protect or promote inequalities or privileges, especially those inequalities or privileges that are viewed as "traditional". It is often associated with extreme nationalism.(Wikipedia) Although the modern term “far-left” is ideally to be used for advocates of radical egalitarianism, internationalism, and social change it is often used for something slightly different then that. To be precise the modern use of the term far-left is often more to describe those seen as strongly opposed to globalization, capitalism, nationalism. (Wikipedia)

4. Traditionally, Canada and its policies are viewed as having a left-centre alignment. Of the major parties in Canada, the NDP is our most left leaning, while the Conservative Party is the farthest right. The Liberal Party, which has been very popular over the years, is a centre to left-centre party. Centre Left Right

5. Biases Non-Response Bias: Although all of the surveys we distributed were returned, there were some questions left unanswered on a few of them. In particular, some respondents didn’t understand the final question, and opted to leave it blank. By not answering all of the questions, our results were affected (albeit in a small way). Response Bias: After collecting back all of the completed surveys, we realized that our third question in the survey could have caused a response bias. By listing just three of the parties, then other, the three parties listed may have received more votes than they would have otherwise. If we had offered a fourth choice, Green, then the results would probably be different from what they are now.

6. Biases Sampling Bias: We had to be very careful about the selection of classes to survey to avoid this bias. In an attempt to eliminate this bias from our work, we decided to use the stratified random sampling technique. The strata we used to divide the school was by grade. Then, we used the simple random sampling technique to choose two classes from each grade. Since each grade in our school is about the same size, we didn’t have to worry about the proportion of each sample relative to its size. Although there is still a chance that this random sample yielded a sampling bias, the technique used helped to lower the risk of such a bias occurring.

7. Biases Household Bias: After examining the results after we had entered our data into the computer, we noticed that 55% of the respondents were male, while only 45% of the respondents were female. Although this was caused purely by chance, the over representation of males could have an effect on the results, as opinions tend to differ greatly depending on gender.

8. Liberal Conservative NDP Green Marijuana Communist Bloc 75 50 16 12 3 1 1

9. Given this data, we were able to create a simulation that could be used to predict roughly how people would vote in any size of group. Using the TI83PLUS Graphing Calculator, we first choose MATH, then input RandInt(1, 158, X), where X is the number of people in the group being surveyed. The number results give the following parties:  1-75 Liberal 76-125 Conservative 126-141 NDP 142-153 Green 154-156 Marijuana 157 Communist 158 Bloc Québécois This will, of course, not be 100% accurate, but it will give an idea of what to expect.

10. The graph above shows the results from national polls, while the graph below shows the results from St. Peter’s

12. P(X=k) = (nCk)(p)k(1-p)n-k P(91) = (166C91)(0.5)91(0.5)75 P(91) = 0.0287 np = 166(0.5) = 83 nq = 166(0.5) = 83

13. One (Disagree) Two Three Four Five (Agree) 43 24 58 17 24 Expected Value = 1(43/166) + 2(24/166) + 3(58/166) + 4(17/166) + 5(24/166) = 2.73

14. Nationally

15. Death Penalty Views at St. Peter’s Death Penalty Views Nationally

16. According to Statistics Canada, 105,535 abortions were conducted in 2002

17. The above graph shows support for the Iraq and Afghanistan at St. Peter’s

18. War in Afghanistan War in Iraq Median 2 1 Mode 1 1 Weighted Mean 2.16 1.83 Weighted(Afghanistan) = (1(68)+2(40)+3(34)+4(11)+5(13)) / 166 = 2.16 Weighted(Iraq) = (1(89) + 2(39) + 3(23) + 4(7) + 5(8)) / 166 = 1.83

19. The above Chart shows opinions of St. Peter’s students concerning religious education. The majority favoured the current system of public funding. Note that 17% say it should be banned.

20. Neither Liberal nor Pro-Choice: 40/166 Liberal, but not Pro-Choice: 32/166 Pro-Choice, but not Liberal: 51/166 Both Liberal and Pro-Choice: 43/166 43/166 P(Liberal | Pro-Choice) = 94/166 P(Liberal | Pro-Choice) = 0.46

21. The above pictograph approximates the distribution of respondents’ overall political alignment. The vast majority of the students surveyed saw themselves as centre to left-centre. This matches the national politics perfectly, and also correlates with the students’ support for the Liberal party.

22. Overall, our thesis was supported by the analysis of our data • We predicted correctly that the Liberals would have more support than they do nationally, and that the Bloc would have less. • However, the CPC and Green were higher, and the NDP was lower than in the national polls. • School opinions were slightly more conservative on gay marriage than the national polls were. • Our thesis for the death penalty and abortion was dead on. • On the issue of the war in Iraq, our thesis was also very accurate.

23. However… Statistics Canada claims that: • 85% of those 40+ vote • 71% of those in their 30’s voted • 58% of those in their twenties voted Even though our sample group was politically informed, this is not shown by national voting statistics, meaning that either our locality is abnormally political, or that there is no correlation between voter turnout and being politically informed.