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Climate Change Scenario in PNW

Climate Change Scenario in PNW. By: Danielle F. Christina S. Spencer R. Juliet H. Group 5 Nov. 6 th , 2012. Site Description. Pacific Northwest Biome: Collected Parts of Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Northern California, Montana, Alberta, and Southern

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Climate Change Scenario in PNW

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  1. Climate Change Scenario in PNW By: Danielle F. Christina S. Spencer R. Juliet H. Group 5 Nov. 6th, 2012

  2. Site Description Pacific Northwest Biome: Collected Parts of Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Northern California, Montana, Alberta, and Southern British Columbia (Naiman, et al. 1992). NASA Earth Observatory Pacific Forest Trust, 2012.

  3. Site Description Continued Orofino, Idaho Roughly Centered in PNW Climatically & Topographically Key Characteristics Web soil survey (USDA) Meteorological data from Orofino Idaho modeled data. Orofino, Idaho l

  4. Evidence of Changing Climate Temperature Over next century, temperatures are expected to rise 2-5ºC(Hall et al., 2008). CO2 Levels From 1959- 2001 an increase of 55micromol/molshowing an increase of more than 16% of CO2 over a 40 year period (Keeling & Whorf, 2005).

  5. Methods Use Dayment model (Daily Surface Weather and Climatalogical Summaries) to generate minimum temperatures, maximum temperatures, and precipitation for Orofino, Idaho. Use data from Daymetfor mtclim model (A Mountain Microclimate Simulation Model) to obtain a met data format for Biome BGC. Run Biome BGC models with increased temperatures, CO2 values, and control values at 100 years. Observe trends and output variables

  6. Affected Variables in Biome BGC • Atmospheric CO2 • Soil Water Outflow • Water stored in soil • Snowpack melt • GPP • NPP • Respiration • Precipitation • Maximum and minimum Temperature • Leaf Area Index

  7. Expected Outcomes Temperature • Increase Water Holding Capacity of Atmosphere (Hall, 2008) • Decreased Snowpack • Decreased Snow Water Equivalent • Reduced Stream flow • Increased Precipitation (Leung, 1999) Co2 • Increased NPP(Boisvenue, 2006) • Increase in LAI (Zhu et al., 2012) • Increased GPP (Loustau et al., 2005) • Increase in Respiration ( White, 1999) (Leung, 1999)

  8. Summary To obtain a model from Biome BGC that explores the effects of increased CO2 and temperature on an enf (Evergreen Needle Forest) vegetation in the Pacific Northwest, over a 100 year period.

  9. Work Cited Association, A. S. (2009, January 11). Investigating the ability of CLM-CN 3.5 to accurately simulate vegetaion density. Retrieved November 2, 2012, from TheEighth Annual AMS Student Conference: https://ams.confex.com/ams/89annual/techprogram/paper_151416.htm Association, L. (n.d.). LPJ & LPJml Web Distribution Portal. Retrieved November 4, 2012, from PostdamInstitues For Climate Impact Reserach: http://www.pik- postdam.de/research/projects/lpweb Association L. (n.d.). Retrieved November 4, 2012, from Distributed Active Archive Center for Biogeochemical Dynamics: http://webmap.ornl.gov/wcsdown/dataset.jsp?ds_id=20021 Beer, C., R. Markus, E. Toelleri, P. Ciais, M. Jung, N. Carvalhais, C. Rodenbeck, M. A. Arain, D. Baldocchi, G. B. Bonan, A. Bondeau, A. Cescatti, G. Laslop, A. Lindroth, M. Lomas, S. Luyssaert, H. Margolis, K.W. Oleson, O. Roupsard, E. Veenendaal, N. Viovy, C. Williams, F.I. Woodland, D. Papale. (2010). Terrestrial Gross Carbon Dioxide Uptake: Global Distribution and Covariation with Climate. Science, 329 (5993): 834-838. Boisvenue C, Running S. Impacts of climate change on natural forest productivity – evidence since the middle of the 20th century. Global Change Biology. May 2006; 12 (5): 862- 882. Available from Academic Search Premier. Accessed November 4th, 2012. Climate Change and Freshwater Resources. Noah D. Hall, Bret B. Stuntz and Robert H. Abrams. Natural Resources & Environment, Vol. 22, No. 3 (Winter 2008), pp. 30-35.

  10. Work Cited Evans, S., S. L afont, M. Lomas, J. Pelleng, G. Picard, M. Williams, I. Woodward. (n.d.). Centre for Terrestrial Carbon Dynamics. Retrieved November 4, 2012: http://www.ctcd.group.shef.ac.uk/science/vegmodels/part2.html Keeling CD, Bagastow RB, Bainbridge AE et al. ( 1976) Atmospheric carbon dioxide variations at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, Tellus, 28, 538-551. Loustau, D., A. Bosc, A. Colin, J. Ogee, H. Davi, C. Francois, E. Durene, M. Deque, E. Cloppet, D. Arrouays, C. Bas, N. Sasby, G. Pignard, N. Hamaza, A. Grandier, N. Breda, P. Ciais, N. Viovy, F. Delage. (2005). Modeling climate change effects on the potential productions of French plains forests at the sub-regional level. Tree Physiology , 813-823. NASA Earth Observatory. Accessed October 31st, 2012.http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=1667. Naiman, et al.. 1992. Fundamental Elements of Ecologically Healthy Watersheds in the Pacific Northwest Coastal Ecoregion. Watershed Management: 127-188. Pacific Forest Trust, 2010. Accessed October 31st, 2012. https://www.pacificforest.org/news_story10141.html.

  11. Water in a Changing World. Robert B. Jackson, Stephen R. Carpenter, Clifford N. Dahm, Diane M. McKnight, Robert J. Naiman, Sandra L. Postel and Steven W. Running. Ecological Applications, Vol. 11, No. 4 (Aug., 2001), pp. 1027-1045. What does ORCHIDEE stand for? (2012, November 4). Retrieved November 4, 2012, from Acronym Finder: http://www.acronymfinder.com/Observatoire-Radar- Coherent- Heliporte-d'Investigation-des-Elements-Ennemis-(French)- (ORCHIDEE).html White, A., M. G. R. Cannell, A. D. Friend. (1999). Climate change impacts on ecosystems and the terrestrial carbon sink: a new assessment. Global Environmental Change, 9 (1): 21-30. Zhu, Qiuan. Effects of future climate change, CO2 enrichment, and vegetation structure variation on hydrological processes in China. Global and Planetary Change (80) 123-135. 2012 .Available from Academic Search Premier. Accessed November 4th, 2012.

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