Summary and Recap: CSES’s Impact on the PNW Implications for Climate Services in the PNW

1. Summary and Recap: CSES’s Impact on the PNWImplications for Climate Services in the PNW Ed Miles CSES Review December 3, 2004

2. Summary and Recap: Contributions to Climate Impacts Science • Defining the PDO • Identifying ENSO and PDO impacts on PNW winter climate and key natural resources • Identifying 20th century trends on PNW temperature, precipitation, and snowpack • Extending the paleorecord for PNW climate, streamflow, forests, and summer sea surface temperatures in the Strait of Juan de Fuca • Defining and evaluating the potential impacts of global climate change on PNW climate and resources • Identifying barriers to effective use of climate information and characteristics of adaptive institutions

3. Summary and Recap: Contributions to Decision Support (CV) • Seasonal climate outlook for the PNW • Climate forecasts for use in resource management • Long-lead (1 year) seasonal streamflow forecasts based on ENSO/PDO • Long-lead (1 year) seasonal marine survival forecasts for Oregon coastal coho salmon • Mid-term (6 month) municipal reservoir forecasts • Near-term (7-14 day) extreme weather risk forecasts • Reinstitution of the Office of the Washington State Climatologist

4. Summary and Recap: Contributions to Decision Support (CC) • Climate change temperature, snowpack, precipitation, and streamflow scenarios • Climate change streamflow scenarios for water supply planning (bias-corrected, targeted locations) • Client-based research consultancies (e.g., climate change impacts on municipal water supplies) • Optimization models for evaluating impacts of climate change on streamflow management • Technical assistance to watershed planning efforts

5. CSES’s Impact on the PNW

6. Influencing Operations and Policy • Cultivated agency interest in information supporting planning for climate variability and change. Evidenced by: • Strong attendance at meetings (e.g. fall forecast, climate/salmon, hydrologic scenarios, climate and water policy meetings) • Research partnerships and consultancies (e.g., municipal water suppliers, ID Dept of Water Resources, Northwest Power and Conservation Council, USACE, Bureau of Reclamation) • Requests for presentations (75+/year) • Survey results demonstrating institutional learning in key sectors

7. A Sea Change in Perceptions Dramatic change in stakeholder perceptions of value and relevance of information about climate variability and change… 1995:Few managers saw role for climate info, recognized predictability of climate, or possessed a conceptual framework for applying climate info 1997-98: El Niño and concomittant media attention stimulated widespread interest in information about climate variability and in CIG Most stakeholders unfamiliar with potential impacts of climate change and unprepared to use such information 2001: Senior-level water resources managers recognize climate change as a potentially significant threat to regional water resources; acknowledge climate change information as critical to future planning 2001/2:50-year drought brings intense media attention to issue and CIG’s work  public & private pressure on State agencies to include CC impacts in long-term planning  significant involvement of CIG in multiple efforts [see below] 2003/4:Continued significant breakthroughs with stakeholder groups [highlighted below]

8. Impacts on Fisheries Science, Management and Recovery Planning • Information about PDO and ecosystem regime shifts percolating through Pacific fisheries management agencies • International Pacific Halibut Commission, International Pacific Salmon Commission, North Pacific Fisheries Management Council, Pacific Fisheries Management Council, AK/WA/OR Dept’s of Fish and Wildlife • Collaboration on climate and coho life cycle studies with NWFSC (Lawson) and AFSC (Logerwell) • 4 paper series led to formal collaboration arrangement with NWFSC • Proposed NOAA/NWFSC initiative on climate change and freshwater ecosystems (CIG, NWFSC, U. Idaho) • WA Dept. of Fish and Wildlife salmon management changed to recognize climate uncertainty • Ongoing collaboration with Col. Riv. Intertribal Fish Commission • CRITFC developed proposed alternative Col. Riv. operating plan based on CIG’s streamflow projections • Current PhD work on chinook salmon (Sharma) • NWFSC’s Oceans and Human Health Initiative collaboration • Pilot study of climate change and Snohomish R. salmon recovery planning with NWFSC (Ruckelshaus, Battin, Palmer, Wiley)

9. Specific Examples of CSES’s Influence on Operations and Policy… • CSES asked to participate on WA and OR advisory committees for West Coast Governors’ Climate Change Initiative and write a high-level briefing memorandum on PNW climate impacts for the governors’ offices (July ‘04) • COE/CSES climate change impacts study proposed for the Green River. Larger goal = help draft national guidance for COE incorporation of climate change into project analysis (11/04) • CSES asked by Skagit River System Coop. to develop a watershed-based climate impacts assessment for Skagit Basin (10/04)

10. Specific Examples: Influencing Ops and Policy cont’d… • Utilities roundtable from the Puget Sound region established in fall 2004 to discuss the use of climate information in electric utilities management. Will meet 2x/year in March and October (key decision periods). • Northwest Power and Conservation Council adding a climate change chapter to agency’s 5th power plan. Looking at implications of climate change for streamflow in the power system. • CSES asked by the COE to prepare memo on climate change impacts to Kootenai River flows as part of Section 7 ESA consultation on White Sturgeon (11/04). • Query from Senator John Kerry’s office on legislation needed to help agencies adapt to changing streamflows as a result of climate change (5/04).

11. Specific Examples: Influencing Ops and Policy cont’d… • Studies for Seattle Public Utilities, Portland Water Dept, Tualatin Water Dept, ID Water Dept, Northwest Power and Conservation Council. • Private sector and environmental organizations demanded that OR Water Dept include climate change in long-term planning as a result of CIG’s work and media coverage. • Governor Locke’s keynote address at state watershed meeting stating that climate change is a major long-term challenge and referencing likely impacts on the PNW (11/19/02). • Climate change added to North Pacific Research Board’s Strategic Plan for physical/biological and human dimensions research to encourage systematic study [ala CIG] in North Pacific.

12. Specific Examples: Influencing Ops and Policy cont’d… • Key briefings and presentations… • Invited speaker at U.K. AAAS/House Science Committee-sponsored briefing on climate change in D.C.; panel member at AAAS special session on climate change (Feb 11-13, 2004) • Testimony on snowpack trends before U.S. Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation (April 26, 2004) • 1 hour presentation on climate change before special session of the Idaho Committee on Natural Resources (June 3, 2004) • 1 hour presentation on CSES, climate change, and decision support before Oregon House Subcommittee on Water (August 9, 2004)

13. Work with the Media • CSES has established an important and valuable working relationship with local and national media • Hundreds of local and national news stories featuring CSES research, researchers since ‘97 • Major Seattle P-I special report on 11/13/03 • Stories in San Francisco Chronicle, Seattle P-I, Idaho Statesman, Albuquerque Journal, The Oregonian • Featured in radio, television programs (KPLU (88.5 FM), KZOK (102.5 FM), PBS’s The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer)

14. All results to-date based on this model:

15. Institutionalizing the CSES • Since its inception in 1995, CSES has become • The leader in exploring the impacts of climate variability and change on the PNW • A regionally-recognized and widely respected source for information about climate impacts, assessment methodologies, and potential response strategies • This success results directly from the diverse, inter-disciplinary, integrated, and committed research team that makes up CSES • This success has come despite the difficulty of sustaining an interdisciplinary group in a University environment due to: • Low Salaries • Lack of permanent positions • Inability to reward non-academic pursuits • Lack of permanent University commitment to address problems of PNW

16. Climate change (altered water cycle) Human activities (resource & land use) Human activities (aquaculture, development) Climate change (sea level rise & ocean mixing) Freshwater habitat (water quality, quantity & timing) Human activities (fishing) Health & Viability of PNW salmon Estuarine habitat (water quality, mixing processes) Ocean habitat To the Future: Integrated Watershed Analysis Responding to stakeholder demand for information applicable to real-world watershed planning issues

17. Implications for the Transition to Operational Climate Services in the PNW • Developing the institutional capacity to provide climate services is neither quick nor easy. Requires: • Defining the types of climate information that are most useful for the specified applications • Producing very specific, mutually defined products • Building trust with stakeholders over time • Developing an integrated research and outreach team for continued innovation • The successful delivery of climate services requires the establishment (and maintenance over time) of a middle-man between the providers and users of climate information • Must have research and interpretive/outreach arms, e.g., climate extension service • Individual agencies and industries assume operational responsibilities only after products are developed, tested, and demonstrated

18. External Stresses Institutional Barriers • Climate Research Community • Seasonal/interannual climate forecasting • Anthropogenic climate change projections • Diagnostic analysis and interpretation Climate Impacts Group Managed Natural Resource Systems climate Nature • Institutions • - Resource Managers • Policymakers • User Communities CLIMATE IMPACTS SCIENCE humans nature Adaptation & Change

19. The Future… The transition to climate services for the PNW, and its ultimate form (University, Govt, Private Sector), remains to be mutually defined by NOAA and CSES.