Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA):

1. Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impact on Policy and Decision Making Future Role of University For A Creative and Innovative Society Prof. Dr. Gülsün SAĞLAMER EUA Board Member ITU 28 September 2006

2. The illiterate of the 21st century will not those who cannot read and write but those who cannot learn, unlearn, and relearn. Alvin Toffler Content Globalization& Forces Driving Change Baseline Scenario Tinkering with the Baseline Scenario Challenging the Baseline Scenario “Creative Economy” Is EU Becoming a “Creative Economy”? Conclusions

3. Globalization Globalisation has been defined as concept that refers to the compression of the world and the intensification of consciousness of the world as a whole. Currie describes the global world as one where time and space are compressed. Jan Currie, Universities and Globalisation,1998, p1

4. Globalization-Some Facts • Fast developments in science, technology, innovation have created knowledge based economies and has accelerated the speed of globalization. But at the same time these changes have forced the world to face the new emerging global players such as China and India. • Economic production has increased 6 fold in the last • 50 years* • World population has increased 2.5 times* • There is an increasing asymmetry between poor and • rich countries. • *The Economist,The Brain Business, Sep 8th 2005

5. Forces Driving Change in the World • The powerful forces driving change in our world today. • demographics • globalization • technology • are demanding change in the role, character and relationship of knowledge organizations such as research universities, corporate R&D organizations, federal laboratories and government • James J. Duderstadt,2006., “University-Industry-Government Partnership”

6. Forces Driving Change in Higher Education • The main factors that put pressure on HE for radical changes are: • Democratisation/Massification of Higher Education • The Rise of Knowledge Economy • Globalization • Competition • The Economist,The Brain Business, Sep 8th 2005

7. Combined Forces Driving Change in HE • Demographics---Global Democratisation of Higher • Education • Technology/Knowledge Economy ---Competition

8. The Democratization/Massification of HE Creating HE opportunities for masses is defined as democratization of HE. The Economist,The Brain Business, Sep 8th 2005

9. Demographics---Global Democratization of HE • The enrollment rate in HE in OECD countries* • Between 1975 – 2000 has gone up from 22% to 41%. • It is planned to increase the enrollment rate up to 53% • China - enrollment rate in 1980s 2-3% • in 2003 17% • Number of doctoral students jumped from 14,500 in • 1998 to 48,700 in 2003 • India -The number of people attending universities • almost doubled in the 1990s from 4.9m to 9.4m. • *The Economist,The Brain Business, Sep 8th 2005

10. Technology/KE---Competition Resources allocated for R&D (% GDP) USA 2.76% Japan 3.12% EU 1.97% (by 2010 3.0%) Luc Weber,2006 “European Strategy to promote the Knowledge Society as a Source of renewed economic dynamism and Social Cohesion” pp3-17

11. Technology/KE---CompetitionResearch Workforce, 2003 (Source: EC “Delivering on the modernisation agenda ….” 2006)

12. Technology/KE---Competition Financial Resources allocated for HE USA %2.7 GDP EU %1.1 Canada %2.5 Korea %2.5

13. Technology/KE--Competition The most significant development in HE is the emergence of super-league of global universities. This is revolutionary in sense that these institutions regard the whole world as their stage (may be their hinterland), but also evolutionary in that they are still wedded to the ideal of a community of scholars who combine teaching and research. This the obvious result of competition in HE sector. The Economist,The Brain Business, Sep 8th 2005

14. Technology/KE---Competition 20 50 100 200 300 400 500 ______________________________________________ US 17 39 51 100 140 165 198 ______________________________________________ EU 2 9 38 79 123 168 205 ______________________________________________ Asia 1 2 8 23 36 65 93 ______________________________________________ Africa 1 2 4 ______________________________________________ Shanghai Ranking 2005

15. Technology/KE---CompetitionUSA • USA Universities have • 70% of Nobel Prize-winners • 30% of world outputs of articles in • science and engineering • 44% of the most frequently cited articles • The Economist(US),Sept 10,2005,v376

16. Technology/KE---Competition Science & Engineering Students Ratio USA 4.5% Europe 12.0% Asia 40.0% China 44.0%* *James J. Duderstadt, 2006.,“University-Industry-Government Partnershippp 19-30

17. Diagnosis and the Baseline Scenario • The Western world, particularly the US is ahead of the others in the global technology/KE competition • However • GLOBAL COMPETITION is intensifying and • US/EU may not be able to rely on the international science and engineering labour market for its unmet skill needs. • the number of native-born science and engineering graduates entering the workforce is likely to decline unless the US/EU intervene to improve success in educating S&E students • DEMOGRAPHICS&DEMOCRATIZATION of HE favours India and China

18. Diagnosis and the Baseline Scenario • The baseline scenario in this competitive global setting does not seem to favour EU or even the US

19. Tinkering with the Baseline ScenarioReversing the Decline in interest in S&E One variable under our control is “interest” in engineering and sciences among the youth What are the reasons for the decline in interest? • The Curriculum is difficult • The curriculum is densely packed and inflexible • Other paths to good jobs are easier • Engineers treated as commodities by employers • Traditional entry level jobs are being offshored • Media reports indicate insability Wayne C.Johnson, Russel C Jones, 2006.,”Declining Interest in Engineering Studies at a Time of Increased Business Need”p244

20. Tinkering with the Baseline ScenarioReversing the Decline in interest in S&E What Can the Universities Do to Reverse the Decline? Universities play a major role in educating future scientists. It is important to make the curricula in science and technology attractive to students. • Interdisciplinary work should be regular to strenghten experimental knowledge • For undergraduates to gain deeper interdisciplinary insight, they need to work with faculty members who offer expertise both in their home discipline and in working together with scientists or scholars fromother disciplines • Most imortant for a student is to take a broad range of courses and develop a solid background at least in one discipline.To instigate a broader horizon of students, universities should not offer curricula which are so packed that it is nearly impossible for students to take any courses outside their primary field. Georg Winckler, Martin Fieder, 2006., “Declining Demand among Students for Science and Engineering”p 236

21. Challenging the Baseline ScenarioFrom “Knowledge Economy” to “Creative Economy” The Baseline Scenario can change IF The US and EU transform their economic and social structures Move from a “Knowledge Economy” to a “Creative Economy”

22. Challenging the Baseline ScenarioFrom “Knowledge Economy” to “Creative Economy” The basic economic resources “the mean of production is no longer capital, nor natural resources...nor labor. It is and will be knowledge” Peter Drucker BUT Richard Florida defines today’s economy as a “Creative Economy” Florida sees creativity as the key driver: Knowledge and information are tools and materials for creativity. “Innovation, whether in the form of new technological artifact or a new business model or method is the product” Richard Florida, 2002., ”The Rise of the Creative Class”

23. From “Knowledge Economy” to “Creative Economy” Creativity “Creativity involves the ability to synthesize. It is a matter of sifting through data, perceptions and materials to come up with combinations that are new and useful.” Richard Florida Creativity can take a longer time. “Chance favors only the prepared mind” Louis Pasteur

24. From “Knowledge Economy” to “Creative Economy” Creativity Creativity flourishes best in a unique kind of social environment: one that is stable enough to allow continuity of effort, that diverse and broad-minded enough to nourish creativity in all its the subversive forms. Richard Florida, 2002., ”The Rise of the Creative Class”

25. From “Knowledge Economy” to “Creative Economy”Innovation • Innovation requires • new knowledge(through research), • human capital(through education), • infrastructure(both physical and cyber) • new policies(intellectuel property,anti-trust, tax) • all of which depend both on public and private investment and upon the capacity of knowledge institutions such as research universities, corporate R&D, and National Laboratories.

26. From “Knowledge Economy” to “Creative Economy” Creativity “Technological progress is like a fragile and vulnerable plant, whose flourishing is not only dependent on the appropriate surroundings and climate, but whose life is almost always short. It is highly sensitive to its social and economic environment and can easily be arrested.” “Sustaining it over a long period is not automatic, but requires constant attention to and investment in the economic and social forms that feed the creative impulse.” Joel Monkry, 1990.,The Lever of Riches: Technological Creativity and Economic Progress

27. From “Knowledge Economy” to “Creative Economy” Creativity in the form of R&D Growth in following dimension of the Creative Economy • Systematic investment in R&D spending • Fruits of R&D, The number of patents... • The workforce devoted to technical creativity in the form of scientiests and engineers • The number of people making a living from artistic and cultural creativity Richard Florida, 2002., ”The Rise of the Creative Class”,p45

28. From “Knowledge Economy” to “Creative Economy” Institutions of the Creative Economy Social Structure of creativity comprises; • New systems for technological creativity and entrepreneurship • New and more effective models for producing goods and services • A broad social, cultural and geographic milieu conducive to creativity of all sorts.

29. From “Knowledge Economy” to “Creative Economy” Research Universities Because universities harbour brain power, ambition and expertise, they are natural partners in building a strong economy. The ways that are common to all research universities are; • Universities are magnets that draw young people of talent from a large area and concentrate them into an interactive, creative community • Universities develop knowledge and skills in their students, so that their graduates are capable of making much more valuable contributions to their families and their society Larry R. Faulkner, 2006., “Lessons about Regional Economic Development from the Austin Story”,p206

30. From “Knowledge Economy” to “Creative Economy” Research Universities • Universities recruit and sustain a talented faculty, who contribute to the creation of vibrant community outside the university itself can bring expertise to the solution of public problems or, as inventors and consultants, to the service of commerce and industry • A university has great power to influence the attractiveness of its region as a place to live and work, through its effect on the intellectual life of its community, through cultural and artistic events that it sponsors, and through its ability to build identity. Larry R. Faulkner, 2006., “Lessons about Regional Economic Development from the Austin Story”,p206

31. From “Knowledge Economy” to “Creative Economy” Research Universities • Universities also have convening power. They can bring people toghether from all sectors of society to address the issue of the present and future. In this way, and in others, universities become seen publicly as places where the future created. The reputation and the reality are both valuable for the economic development of the region that host the university. • Finally, all universities are sizable, stable economic engines in themselves. They bring employement to a community and generate income for many supporting business. Larry R. Faulkner, 2006., “Lessons about Regional Economic Development from the Austin Story”,p206

32. From “Knowledge Economy” to “Creative Economy” Designing Creative and Innovative Society How? • The university must host a superb faculty and truly exceptional research programmes, as measured by international standards • The university must have high social importance and public credibility • The region must be competitively attractive place for talented people to live. • The university leadership must be well engaged with the business and political leadership of the region, and all must be interested in fostering economic development. Larry R. Faulkner, 2006., “Lessons about Regional Economic Development from the Austin Story”,p206

33. From “Knowledge Economy” to “Creative Economy”Is EU Becoming a Creative Society? • Bologna Process • Lisbon Strategy • EUA Vision

34. From “Knowledge Economy” to “Creative Economy”Is EU Becoming a Creative Society?BOLOGNA and BEYOND • The aim of the Bologna Process is to establish EHEA which will promote lasting employability for European citizens and international competitiveness of the European Higher Education System. • It is widely accepted that for many countries, “Bologna is an inspiration and recipe for highly needed reforms in their higher education systems.” (Bologna Process, Bergen, 2005) • As Bologna Process has been developing, its mission and goals have also been redefined according to emerging trends and concepts throughout years since 1999.

35. From “Knowledge Economy” to “Creative Economy”Is EU Becoming a Creative Society?Lisbon Strategy 2000 • The European Commisssion launched Lisbon Strategy in March 2000. • The EU set itself “a new strategic goal for the next decade: to become the most competitive and dynamic knowledge-based economy in the world capable of sustainable economic growth with more and better jobs and greater social cohesion” • The European Council concluded that European education and training systems should become a “world quality reference” in March 2002.

36. The European University Association (EUA) Contributions • EUA’s mission is to promote the development of a coherent system of European higher education and research, through active support and guidance to its members as autonomous institutions in their development of the quality of teaching, learning and research and in enhancing their contributions to society. EUA Annual Report 2001/2002

37. EUA EUA has created “A Vision and Strategy for Europe’s Universities and European University Association” in 2006. This vision paper has defined the role of European Universities in the world and their mission. “European Universities see it as their mission to perform as essential part of the knowledge society and economy, the task of invention, innovation, teaching, learning, research, knowledge transfer and fearless critisism of ideas in the service of Europe and the world.”

38. Conclusion Transformation towards a “Creative Society” demands a vibrant HE system Across Europe as a whole, higher education is crying out for reform in six important areas • Governance, Funding, Selectivity in Allocation of Funds, Enhancing Diversity, Curriculum Reform, Top down Mechanisms Richard Lambert, 2006

39. Conclusion The drift towards the unfavourable baseline scenario is a real RISK but NOT INEVITABLE Our determination today to pursue the pillars of the creative society is the way forward to become the “authors of a favourable scenario” rather than the “sad bystanders in an unfavourable scenario”

40. “You can never plan the future by the past” Edmund Burke Thank you For Your Attention

41. References • Jan Currie., Universities and Globalization, 1998,p1 • The Economist,The Brain Business, Sep 8th 2005 • James J. Duderstadt,2006., “University-Industry-Government Partnership” • Usher,A &Cervenan,A.,2005 Global Higher Education Rankings.Affordability and Accessibility in Comparative Perspective • Luc Weber,2006 “European Strategy to promote the Knowledge Society as a Source of renewed economic dynamism and Social Cohesion” pp3-17 • Michael Scharage,2006.,”The Asian Giants and the Brains Bazaar” • Wayne C.Johnson, Russel C Jones, 2006.,”Declining Interest in Engineering Studies at a Time of Increased Business Need”p244 • Georg Winckler, Martin Fieder, 2006., “Declining Demand among Students for Science and Engineering”p 236 • Larry R Faulkner, 2006., “Lessons about Regional Economic Development from the Austin Story”,p206 • Richard Florida, 2002., ”The Rise of the Creative Class” • Joel Monkry, 1990.,The Lever of Riches: Technological Creativity and Economic Progress • Rising Above The Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future • EUA Statement on the Bologna Process, Bergen Ministerial Meeting April 200 • EUA A Vision and Strategy for Europe’s Universities and European University Association”, 2006. • Richart Lambert, 2006 “Best Practices in Business-University Collaboration”