Longman PoliticalScience Interactive

1. LongmanPoliticalScienceInteractive Magleby & Light Government by the People Chapter 8 Public Opinion, Participation, and Voting

2. Recent Concerns about Voting • Florida 2000 • Contested ballots • Outdated voting machines • Lingering perceptions of partisanship • Help America Vote Act 2002 • Ohio 2004 • Voter Registration Requirements – Picture IDs

3. Voting How doe we make voting transparent to all Americans?

4. What is Public Opinion? Public Opinion The distribution of individual preferences for or evaluations of a given issue, candidate, or institution within a specific population • The proper wording and phrasing of the questions are vitally important to producing reliable, objective data • Appropriate language and vocabulary • Neutral wording • Open-ended versus closed-ended

5. How do we express Public Opinion? • Newspaper Articles • Letters to Officials • Protests • Conversations • Voting • Surveys • Polls (Phone, Exit)

6. Polls • Most Popular Polls • Gallup • Pew • New York Times • Rasmussen • Politico

7. Polls • Characteristics: • Relatively small number of participants • Must use random sampling (every individual in that group as equal chance of being selected) • Margin of error (+ or – 3%) • Open –Ended Questions • Questions are pre-tested to eliminate researcher bias • Polarized or Consensus

8. The Way You Ask the Question Matters

9. What is Public Opinion? Intensity – the degree to which people feel strongly about their opinions Latency – opinions that people have not openly expressed Salience – the measure as to how relevant an issue is to an individual

10. Differing Opinions on Gay Marriage

11. How Do We Get Our Political Opinions and Values? Political Socialization The process, most notably in families and schools, by which we develop our political attitudes, values, and beliefs. Participation in groups at all ages.

12. Agents of Socialization • Family • Schools • Media • Selective exposure: Choosing the media with which one agrees • Religion

13. Stability and Change in Public Opinion • Adult opinions tend not to change over time. • Those that do usually experience a harsh event in life: death of a loved one, job change, war.

14. Stability and Change in Public Opinion

15. Public Opinion and Public Policy “What I want is to get done what the people desire to be done, and the question for me is how to find that out exactly.” - Abraham Lincoln

16. Public Opinion and Public Policy Public Opinion Drives Public Policy Public Policy Drives Public Opinion Officials want to get re-elected, therefore they pay attention to their voters.

17. Awareness and Interest Knowledge Levels Politics is not the major interest of most Americans, and as a result, knowledge about the political system is limited

18. Awareness and Knowledge • 25% - Attentive Public • 33% - Political “Know-Nothings” • 40% - Part Time Knowledge of Politics

19. Political Participation How citizens influence government action: Voting, Blogs, party meetings, campaigning, urge friends to vote, letters to newspapers, call to radio station, protests, strikes, etc. Internet has allowed political participation to expand. Building “Social Capital”

20. Participation: Translating Opinions into Action Only a small percentage of the American people are actively engaged in the political process, yet they receive most of the media attention

21. Internet and Politics • Allows public to be better informed • Private participation • Fund raising activities • Campaigning thru Internet • Facebook, Twitter, You Tube, Presidential websites

22. Voting • Constitution allowed for States to create qualifications for voting • Voting Act of 1965 – eliminated discriminatory voting practices within states and mandated that any changes to state requirements had to be approved by the Department of Justice.

23. Voting Amendments • 1870 – 15th Amendment – forbade discrimination based on race, color or previous servitude • 1920 – 19th Amendment – gave women the right to vote • 1961 – 23rd Amendment – District of Columbia residents allowed to vote • 1964 – 24th Amendment – prohibited the use of poll taxes • 1971- 26th Amendment – extended voting rights to those 18 and older

24. Voting Voter registration: A system designed to reduce voter fraud by limiting voting to those who have established eligibility to vote by submitting the proper documents, including proof of residency • -Reduces voter turnout • -Instituted in the U.S. only in the late 1800s • -Most other democracies have automatic registration • -Recent reforms • - “Motor Voter” bill (1993)

25. Voting In an effort to make registration easier, states have made registration forms available at motor vehicle stations, schools, public buildings, and even highway tollbooths

26. Absentee and Early Voting • Absentee ballots must be received by election day • Used for military personnel, college students, citizens living abroad • Early voting (2008) to prevent insufficient machines, lines, etc. Allowed in 31 states.

27. Types of Elections • Primary Election – elections in which voters determine party nominees • General Election – elections in which voters elect officeholder • Presidential Election - elections held in years when the president is on the ballot (every 4 years, even year) • Mid-Term Election – elections held midway between presidential elections. 1/3 of Senate, All of House of Representatives, governors of most states

28. Voter Turnout • Higher among educated • Higher among whites • Higher among wealthy • 80 Million eligible voters did not vote in 2008 (40% of voting population) • More women than men • Young least likely to vote ?????

29. Turnout

30. Voter Turnout in Western Democracies Average Turnout 1991-2000

31. Who Votes? • Race and ethnicity • Gender • Age

32. Mobilization • Mobilizing the “base” (most loyal supporters) • Mobilizing “swing voters” • Canvassing

33. How Serious is Nonvoting? A huge army of nonvoters “hangs over the democratic process like a bomb ready to explode and change the course of history.” -Arthur Hadley “I’m not going to shed any crocodile tears if people don’t care enough to vote….I’d be extremely happy if nobody in the United States voted except for the people who thought about the issues and made up their own minds and wanted to vote.” - the late Senator Sam Ervin

34. Why People Don’t Vote

35. How Serious is Nonvoting? • Concerns about “class bias” • Negative effect on Democratic candidates • May indicate approval of the status quo

36. Voting What if everyone voted?

37. Voting Choices • Voting on Basis of Party • Voting on Basis of Candidates • Voting on Basis of Issues

38. Voting on the Basis of Party • In the absence of reasons to vote otherwise, people depend on party identification to simplify their voting choices • Dramatic increase in self-declared Independents since 1970s Party Identification An informal and subjective affiliation with a political party that most people acquire in childhood

39. Voting on the Basis of Candidates Candidate Appeal How voters feel about a candidate’s background, personality, leadership ability, and other personal qualities • 1980s mark a critical threshold in the emergence of a candidate-centered era • Increasingly, campaigns focus on the negative elements of candidates’ history and personality

40. Voting on the Basis of Issues Prospective Issue Voting Voting based on what a candidate pledges to do in the future about an issue if elected Retrospective Issue Voting Holding incumbents responsible for past performance on issues

41. Counting Votes • Until the 2000 election, Americans took the counting of ballots for granted. Bush won by only 537 votes. • According to State laws. Varies state to state • Election officials must make judgment calls on incomplete/flawed ballots • Poll workers (regular people from the neighborhood) influence the security, efficiency, and overall environment of polling locations