David B. Hannaway Professor of Crop Science Forage Information System Oregon State University

1. Clover Use In China: Current and Future Potential Robert Russell Directorof International Marketing Strategic Ventures, LLC David B. Hannaway Professor of Crop Science Forage Information System Oregon State University Christopher Daly Professor of Geosciences Spatial Climate Analysis Service Oregon State University Adam Branson Agriculture Specialist USDA FAS Beijing, PRC FANG Lining Forage & Turf Specialist Barenbrug - China Beijing, PRC Alan Cooper IPM Specialist Co-Principal ANE-Asia Clover Use In China – Oregon Clover Commission

2. Outline • History of involvement in China • Rational for species suitability mapping project • USDA MAP and EMP projects • Follow-on projects potential • Clover use – current and potential • Project proposal idea Clover Use In China – Oregon Clover Commission

3. History • 20+ years of collaboration with PRC • Visiting scholars began in 1982 • Forage and seed workshop in 1987 • M.S. and Ph.D. students • Linkage with Oregon Seed Council’s Market Access Program project • Tall Fescue Commission funding • OECDD funding • Beijing US Embassy recommendation to expand the GIS-based mapping work to identify high priority marketing regions  EMP funding Clover Use In China – Oregon Clover Commission

4. Rationale for species suitability mapping project • Meeting survival food needs and economic growth in China has allowed consideration of: • Improved forage-livestock systems • Urban beautification • Improved environmental protection • This has led to increased seed demands for: • Animal products • Beautiful turf • Reduced soil erosion • Effective global marketing of Oregon seeds requires identifying species suitability zones: • Previously impossible with traditional field trials • GIS-based mapping makes it possible Clover Use In China – Oregon Clover Commission

5. USDA FAS EMP Project: … species suitability mapping in the PRC Oregon State University and Chinese cooperators: identifying suitability zones for selected forage, soil conservation, and turf species. This has involved… • Cooperation with governments, universities, agencies, and organizations • Finding and assembling necessary data • Creating GIS layers • Combining spatial data layers according to quantitative species tolerance “rules” Clover Use In China – Oregon Clover Commission

6. USDA FAS EMP Project Goal: To improve marketing of US-grown cool-season forage, turf, and conservation seeds. Strategies: • Developing improved, computer-aided species selection tools. • Linkage with OSC-USDA FAS MAP project (education and demonstration activities). Clover Use In China – Oregon Clover Commission

7. Project products • Research-based and validated computer drawn (GIS-based) climate, soil, and species suitability maps • Tools for optimal matching of forage, turf, and soil conservation species with specific locations and intended uses. Clover Use In China – Oregon Clover Commission

8. Project benefits To Sellers: • Better targeted markets (where to plant). To Buyers: • Reduced economic risk. • Increased potential profit. • Reduced use of scarce or non-renewable resources. Clover Use In China – Oregon Clover Commission

9. Purpose of our meeting today is to: • Describe the approach and products. • Suggest clover-oriented follow-on projects for expanding the markets in China. Clover Use In China – Oregon Clover Commission

10. 1.Use of GIS-based technologies. Model and map: Climate Soils Species suitability 2. Validate maps with traditional agronomic field trials. Approach Clover Use In China – Oregon Clover Commission

11. Mapping of topography, climate, and soils: Digital Elevation Model (GTOPO 30, 1 km resolution) Clover Use In China – Oregon Clover Commission

12. PRISM: Christopher Daly Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model PRISM knowledge based system accounts for spatial variations in climate due to: • Elevation (digital elevation grid) • Terrain orientation (topographic facet grid) • Terrain steepness (terrain profile grid) • Moisture regime (storm trajectory grid) • Coastal proximity (coastal trajectory grid) • Inversion layer (inversion height grid) • Long-term climate patterns (climate grid) Clover Use In China – Oregon Clover Commission

13. Official 1961-90 Precipitation Maps for the USDA NRCS Each state peer-reviewed Seamless coverage Used in thousands of applications Clover Use In China – Oregon Clover Commission

14. PRISM-Group International Climate Mapping All maps are state-of-the-art, and are used as the standard for evaluation of other methods Mongolia Western Canada European Alps China Taiwan Pacific Basin Clover Use In China – Oregon Clover Commission

15. Data from climate stations: Precipitation (monthly and annual) Temperature (monthly and annual minimum and maximum) Others Mapping of topography, climate, and soils: PRISM-based climate; 4 km grid cell resolution 2,600 stations • Development sequence: • 30-year mean climatology • Monthly time series • Daily mapping • Example applications: • Degree-Day/Growing season • Growth/development models • Water supply • Climate trends and variability Clover Use In China – Oregon Clover Commission

16. Mapping of topography, climate, and soils: Mean Annual Precipitation Clover Use In China – Oregon Clover Commission

17. Mapping of topography, climate, and soils: January Mean Minimum Temperature Clover Use In China – Oregon Clover Commission

18. Mapping of topography, climate, and soils: July Mean Maximum Temperature Clover Use In China – Oregon Clover Commission

19. Data from most recent soil survey via cooperation with CAAS-SFI in Beijing National surveys and mapping are 1:4,000,000 CAS Soils Institute in Nanjing is completing 1:1,000,000 scale Challenge of different systems (Chinese, Russian, FAO, USA) USA national and county digital soil surveys (STATSGO and SSURGO) are 1:250,000 and 1:24,000 scale CAAS Soil & Fertilizer Institute http://www.ftw.nrcs.usda.gov/order.html Mapping of topography, climate, and soils: Soil Maps Clover Use In China – Oregon Clover Commission

20. Mapping of topography, climate, and soils: Soil pH Clover Use In China – Oregon Clover Commission

21. Species suitability mapping:Species Tolerances Database • Traditional approach has been qualitative • Need quantitative approach to work with spatial data layers and integrate with crop simulation models • Initial estimates have been developed and mapped (USA first, then PRC) • Internet Map Server for web-based improvements via “dynamic mapping” Historical qualitative, static approach. Current quantitative, dynamic approach. Clover Use In China – Oregon Clover Commission

22. Species Max. Temp (°C) Min. Temp. (°C) Annual Precipitation (mm) Well Adapted Tall Fescue 22 - 32  -10  625 Orchardgrass 22 - 31  -7.5  625 Perennial Ryegrass 22 - 30  -5  625 Moderately Adapted Tall Fescue 20 - 34  -15  450 Orchardgrass 20 - 33  -12.5  490 Perennial Ryegrass 20 - 32  -10  525 Marginally Adapted Tall Fescue 18 - 36  -20  300 Orchardgrass 18 – 35  -17.5  375 Perennial Ryegrass 18 - 34  -15  450 Species suitability mapping: Quantitative Climate Tolerances Clover Use In China – Oregon Clover Commission

23. Species suitability mapping: Internet Map Serverhttp://mistral.coas.oregonstate.edu/forages/ Clover Use In China – Oregon Clover Commission

24. Species suitability mapping: Internet Map Serverhttp://mistral.coas.oregonstate.edu/forages/ Clover Use In China – Oregon Clover Commission

25. Species suitability mapping: Tall fescue Clover Use In China – Oregon Clover Commission

26. Species suitability mapping:Gansu Province – Tall fescue(based solely on climate; rainfall and temperature) Clover Use In China – Oregon Clover Commission

27. Validate with field-based evaluation trials Link advanced technologies with traditional approaches Enlist local experts to assist with concept development, implementation, and validation Validation Clover Use In China – Oregon Clover Commission

28. Delivery systems and DSS : Web Segment Individual pieces are important, nevertheless: • For truly helpful product, these pieces need to be integrated into an easy-to-use Decision Support System • Web-based DSS provide easy access in an efficient delivery tool for farmers and policy makers leading to sustainable systems Clover Use In China – Oregon Clover Commission

29. Project accomplishments: • Geospatial data layers • Most comprehensive climate dataset in the world • Most detailed and accurate climate grids for ppt. and temp. • National soils information in digital form • Quantitative species tolerances • Example cool-season grasses used as initial examples • Internet Map Server and “Dynamic Mapping System” • Began with proprietary products and moved to ‘open source’ • Unique in the world application to quantify experience-based knowledge • Species suitability maps • Iterative process identified market opportunities • Web-based information system & DSS • Allows easy-to-use access to detailed geospatial data • Professional development & student exchange programs • Long-term impacts of US-educated decision makers Clover Use In China – Oregon Clover Commission

30. Project impact: • Awareness of suitability zones by US seed companies and Chinese collaborators • US / Multinational seed companies collaboration • Educational programs and seed quality knowledge • Workshops • Seminars • Exchange programs • Scientists • Students • Increased seed sales • USDA FAS MAP and EMP programs; increased sales and market share Clover Use In China – Oregon Clover Commission

31. Clover Use In China – Oregon Clover Commission

32. Clover Use In China – Oregon Clover Commission

33. Follow-on project ideas: • Geospatial layers • Time series / probabilities of extreme climate events • Greater resolution of national and provincial climate and soil information • Species / cultivars • Additional species and creating cultivar-specific maps • Use in plant breeding objective feasibility studies • Web Information & DSS • More comprehensive linkages • Graphical user interface to species suitability information • Gansu Demonstration Project • Linkage with World Bank, ADB, and USDA ARS projects • Other regions and countries • Asia, SE Asia, Central and South America, Africa, etc. Clover Use In China – Oregon Clover Commission

34. Clover use in China: USDA FAS - Beijing • Adam Branson – conferred with local contacts • Clover trade data shows China’s clover seed imports are increasing, especially those from Australia. • Clover demand has been increasing, especially for landscaping use as clovers are seen as having low maintenance costs. • Market is very price sensitive. • There appears to be very limited Chinese domestic clover seed production. • USA is currently a minor player (in 2004 <33,000 kg; <72,600 lbs) Clover Use In China – Oregon Clover Commission

35. Clover Use In China – Oregon Clover Commission

36. Clover use in China: Barenbrug - China • FANG Lining – conferred with national experts • White and red clover are the most important clover species used in China. • Use of white clover far exceeds that of red clover. • Crimson clover was introduced when price was low, but with higher cost, use has been discontinued. • There has been some testing of strawberry clover, but no market has been established. • Farmers use vetches and beans in hotter parts of southern China. • White and red clovers: Used in Southwest, Northeast and middle China. Grows well in Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, Guangxi, Hunan, and Jiangsu provinces. • Both used for forage-livestock systems. • White clover is also used for landscape applications in both northern and southern China. • Xi’an and Yangtze River watershed are important tourist areas with large beautification budgets. Clover Use In China – Oregon Clover Commission

37. Project proposal idea • Develop species list • Identify clover species that are of immediate interest for market development. • Create quantitative tolerances table • Identify key reference resources and local experts in USA and PRC • Draft prototype maps • Use internet map server application to create initial maps for USA and PRC • Conduct validation trials • Select sites for evaluation, identify cooperators, draft trial protocol, assemble seed, and conduct trial for two production years Clover Use In China – Oregon Clover Commission

38. Species Max. Temp (°C) Min. Temp. (°C) Annual Precipitation (mm) Well Adapted White clover 20 - 32  -10  550 Red clover 20 - 30  -20  625 Strawberry clover 22 - 28  0  750 Moderately Adapted White clover 28 – 32.5  -13  450 Red clover 18 - 32  -25  490 Strawberry clover 20 - 30  -5  650 Marginally Adapted White clover 16 – 33.5  -16  350 Red clover 18 – 35  -30  375 Strawberry clover 18 - 32  -7.5  550 Example: Clover SpeciesQuantitative Climate Tolerances Clover Use In China – Oregon Clover Commission

39. Example: suitability map; white clover - USA Clover Use In China – Oregon Clover Commission

40. Example: Suitability map; white clover - PRC Clover Use In China – Oregon Clover Commission

41. Example: Validation trials selection process Clover Use In China – Oregon Clover Commission

42. Beijing (FANG Lining, LI Xianglin, HU Yuegao) China Agricultural University Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Several OR connected multi-national seed companies Inner Mongolia (WEI Yurong, LI Qingfeng) Inner Mongolia Agricultural University Inner Mongoia Meteorological Institute Shandong (Tia’an) (ZHANG, Zhiguo) Shandong Agricultural University Jiangsu (Nanjing) (CAO Weixing, GAO Liangzhi) Nanjing Agricultural University Jiangsu Academy of Agricultural Sciences Yunnan (Kunming) (HUANG Bizhi, YIN Jun) Yunnan Beef Cattle & Pasture Research Center Yunnan Provincial Grass Forage Station Gansu (Lanzhou) (LONG Ruijun, ZHAO Guiqin) Gansu Agricultural University Capable cooperators Clover Use In China – Oregon Clover Commission

43. Example: Validation trials potential sites Clover Use In China – Oregon Clover Commission

44. Summary • GIS-based, integrated approach permits modeling and mapping of climate, soils, and species. • Use traditional agronomic trials to validate maps. • USDA FAS MAP and EMP projects have created the basic building blocks. • Potential follow-on projects could include clover mapping and validation. • Current use of clovers is primarily white and red and dominated by Australia. • Potential use of clovers could include Oregon-produced species and varieties. • Project sponsors could include…. • Oregon Seed Council, Oregon Clover Commission, Individual Seed Companies, USDA-FAS-EMP, USDA-ICD-RSED, USDA-ARS, World Bank and WB Institute, Asian Development Bank, PRC SFA, PRC Provincial projects, and other cooperators in concert with OSU and ODA, USDA NRCS and ARS scientists. Clover Use In China – Oregon Clover Commission

45. One potential future …..Oregon clovers supplying China’s needs Clover Use In China – Oregon Clover Commission

46. Clover Mapping Project Proposal Objectives: • Develop species list Oregon Clover Commission with Principal Investigator (white, red, strawberry, crimson, arrowleaf, subterranean, etc.) • Create quantitative tolerances table USA, European, Australian, and Chinese species experts (OSU, Univ. of Melbourne, Belgian Univ., NAU, GAU, etc.) • Draft prototype maps OSU PRISM group with species experts (Daly, Doggett, Hannaway, et al.) • Conduct validation trials Chinese university, agency, and industry cooperators (Barenbrug, DLF-International, CAU, SDAU, NAU, JAAS, YBCRC, GAU, IMAU, IMMI) Clover Use In China – Oregon Clover Commission