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Why was the Great Depression so deep? W hy did it last so long?

Why was the Great Depression so deep? W hy did it last so long?. Friedman and Schwartz: M-contraction. Bernanke: true, but there’s more. Financial crisis  bank failures  reduced borrower net worth Increased Cost of Credit Intermediation (CCI) (A “rational” credit squeeze)

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Why was the Great Depression so deep? W hy did it last so long?

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  1. Why was the Great Depression so deep?Why did it last so long? • Friedman and Schwartz: M-contraction. • Bernanke: true, but there’s more. Financial crisis  bank failures reduced borrower net worth • Increased Cost of Credit Intermediation (CCI) (A “rational” credit squeeze) • Opposed to Keynes, Minsky, Kindleberger, Shiller: Animal spirits/Irrational exuberance  Inherent instability of financial capitalism • Bernanke: “push rationality postulate as far as it will go.” But lets not ignore animal spirits…

  2. Confidence and Effective Demand in Keynes’ Economics UNCERTAINTY Rush to liquidity in a crisis only reduces prices of securities  iUP “Quasi – rents” Yields/Profits Interest Rate Price of Capital Asset, Pk (What it’s worth) vs. Price of Investment, PI (What it costs to build) Investment Spending Multiplier Effective Demand, Output and Employment

  3. Stabilizing an Unstable Economy • Financial Instability Hypothesis: • Hedge finance • Speculative finance • Ponzi finance Two types of risk affect the volume of investment. …The first is the entrepreneur's or borrower's risk and arises out of doubts in his own mind as to the probability of his actually earning the prospective yield for which he hopes. If a man is venturing his own money, this is the only risk which is relevant. …But where a system of borrowing and lending exists, a second type of risk is relevant which we may call the lender's risk. GT, Chapter 11. Hyman Minsky 1919 - 1996 Student of Simons/ Schumpeter • A Minsky Cycle • Displacement (invention, easy money) • Boom…successful speculation • Euphoria…financial innovation • Profit taking • Panic PK Borrower’s Risk Price of capital assets Lender’s Risk PI Internal funds Io I1 Investment When expectations are disappointed, investment collapses … but debts remain

  4. Mehrling on Minsky • Periods of tight liquidity  short rates rise (incentive for stretching liquidity) • Value of today’s cash flows rises relative to cash flows in the future. • Demand price of capital assets (Pk) falls • Supply price of investment goods (Pi) rises (interest is a cost of production). • The incentive to invest is reduced. • The greater danger: • collapse of investment spending • reduced aggregate income • cash flows elsewhere in the economy fall short of expected levels • hedge finance units  speculative units • speculative units  Ponzi units, • the fragility of the system increases. • An investment slump might amplify the financial problems of a few units and bring the whole system down in a cascade of debt deflation.

  5. Akerlof and Shiller, Animal Spirits • Confidence – Keynes-Minsky • Hopes, Exuberance, Fears • Waves of optimism and pessimism • Corruption - Bad Faith  Loss of Trust • S&Ls – Enron – Sub-prime • Fairness • Punish cheaters, even at own expense • Focus on relative position • Money illusion • “Illusion” is real in view of nominal contracts/accounts • Stories • New eras – Irrational exuberance Downward wage rigidity

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