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Adam Oleksiuk University of W armia and Mazury

Adam Oleksiuk University of W armia and Mazury Economic Situation and Implementation of the Cohesion Policy in Poland between 2007-2013. Budapest, April 08, 2014. 1. MaMaiin dmevelopment trends in Poland:.

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Adam Oleksiuk University of W armia and Mazury

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  1. Adam Oleksiuk University of Warmia and Mazury EconomicSituation and Implementation of the Cohesion Policy in Poland between 2007-2013 Budapest, April 08, 2014 1

  2. MaMaiin dmevelopment trends in Poland: High –compared to the EU - economicgrowth and progress in convergence with the EU, Changes in the economy’sstructureresulting from the cohesionpolicy’simplementation and from the globaleconomiccrisis: shrinkingshare of sector I (agriculture) and slightlydecliningshare of sector III (services) coupled with growingshare of the sector II (industry and construction) Growthslowdown in 2012, deteriation of macroeconomicsituation in numerousimportantspheres: economicgrowth, situation of public finance, labour market Potentialthreats to futureeconomicgrowth: weakexternal and domesticdemand, impact of public finance’sconsolidation (i.a. lower public investment) Decline of population’s real disposableincomes in the period 2011-2012 2

  3. GDP growth rate in Poland(annual changes in %)

  4. Main development trends in Poland In 2012 GDP per capita (at PPS) reached 67% of the EU-27 average. Dynamic convergence vis-a-vis the EU average –faster than in all the other New Member States. The process of real convergence towards the EU was observed in all regions of Poland; however it was slower in the less developed regions 4

  5. GDP growth in the Central and Eastern European Countries Sources: Own estmiate, based on Eurostat’s data base and on UNECE statistical database.

  6. Main development trends in Poland • Relatively high rate of economic growth, compared to the EU average • Average annual rate of growth in the period 2007-2012 amounted to 4% (as against the EU-27 average of 0.4%) • Economic slowdown in 2012 and in 2013; GDP increased by respecitvely 1.9% and 1.6% (4.5% in 2011). GDP growth rate (%) in Poland and in the EU (q/q-4) i EU-27, average Poland 6

  7. Development trends in Poland • Slowdown in domestic demand observed in 2012 – very low growth in consumption, coupled with fall in accumulation (including gross fixed capital formation). • In the period 2009-2012, expenditures on gross fixed capital formation recorded growth only in 2011, while the consumption growth has been slowing since 2010 Growth (in %) of selected GDP componentsin the period 2007-2013 (q/q-4) 7

  8. Development trends in Poland Investment ratedeclined from 20.2% in 2011 to 19.4% in 2012, with the simultaneousdecline in public investments from 5.7% of the GDP to 4.6% The ConvergenceProgramme 2013 forecastsdecline in infrastructural investment- atboth central and self-governmentlevel - from 3.8% in 2013 to 3.5% in 2014 Investment rate (% of GDP) Total investment rate Public sector’s investment rate 8

  9. Employment rate in EU-28age group 20-64 in 2012 (in %) Source: Eurostat Database, accessed February 27, 2014

  10. Harmonised unemployment ratein EU-28(December 2013, in %)

  11. Main development Trends in Voivodeships (NTS-2 regions) Progress in convergence with the EU ismorepronounced in economicallyleadingvoivodeships (mazowieckie, dolnośląskie, wielkopolskie) The highestvalues of Local Human Development Index (health, education, affluence) areobserved in highlydevelopedvoivodeships (mazowieckie, małopolskie, pomorskie), while the most dynamicprogress in thisarea in the years 2007-2010 was recodred in lubuskie and łódzkie voivodeships. Differentiatedsituation in voivodeships – highereconomicgrowth in the most developed regions, coupled with growing investment rate in economicallyweakerones Deterioration of situation in manylabour market segments– youthunemployment and long-term unemployment in ruralareas and in areasdistant from largeurbancenters Worsening net balance of internalmigration in manyperipheraleastern, central and northernareas Progress in improving the communicationaccessibility of regionalcenters and in the quality of technicalinfrastructure. 11

  12. Convergence of voivodeships towards the EU In 2011 GDP per capita (at PPS) ranged from 44 % of the EU-28 average (in lubelskie and podkarpackie) to 107% (in mazowieckie voivodeship). In 2010 the ratio ranged from 42% (podkarpackie) to 102% (mazowieckie). In the period 2004-2011 the GDP per capita in mazowieckie voivodeship has increased in relation to the EU-28 average by 31p.p., while lubelskie, warmińsko-mazurskie, podkarpackie and zachodniopomorskie have narrowed the distance towards the EU-28 average by 9 p.p. 12

  13. Registered unemployment at NUTS-3 level High long-term unemployment in Eastern Poland 13

  14. Differentiation at the NTS 3 level IN 2010 GDP per capita of NUTS-3 units in relation to the national average ranged from 53.2% in przemyski subregion (podkarpackie voivodeship) to 301.1% in Warsaw (differentation rate of 1:6). GDP per capita in subregions (NUT- 3) in 2010 ( Poland=100), in % 14

  15. Entrepreneurship, investments, expenditures of innovative activity • Highly differentiated development potential of the entreprise sector across the country • Investment outlays are incurred mostly by enterprises located in subregions where economic activity is concentrated in large urban centres.

  16. Expenditures on innovative activity • Significant regional concentration – in 2012 almost 40% of expenditures on innovative activity were incurred in enterprises located in the mazowieckie voivodeship, whille close to 14% in śląskie voivodeship • Services sector – 78.4% of expenditures on innovative activity incurred by enterprises from the mazowieckie voivodeship • Industrial sector – almost 70% of innovative activity originates in 5 voivodeships: śląskie (19.3%), mazowieckie (18.8%), łódzkie, wielkopolskie and dolnośląskie

  17. Research & Development Expenditures • High concentration - in 2011 4  voivodeships (mazowieckie, małopolskie, śląskie and vielkopolskie) responsible for 67% of the said expenditures. • Highest R&D expenditures per 1 person employed in the R&D sphere recorded in mazowieckie voivodeship (PLN 125 thousand-i.e. 43.8% higher than the national average). 2nd place of świętokrzyskie voivodeship, with podkarpackie and warmińsko-mazurskie ranked 3rd and 4th. kujawsko-pomorskie placed last (with expenditures almost two times lower than the national average) • In 2010 the largest share of regional GDP was earmarked for financing R&D activity in mazowieckie (1.35%), małopolskie (1.05%) and podkarpackie (0.97%) • In case of Eastern Poland situation is not uniform. The share of said expenditures was quite significant in podkarpackie voivodeship (where i.a. the so-called Aviation Valley is located) and in lubelskie (0.67%) where the dynamic academic center is located. However, in warmińsko-mazurskie and in świętokrzyskie the said share amounted to 0.45 i 0.47% of regional GDP, while in  podlaskie it stood at mere 0.32% of the region’s GDP

  18. Road infrstructure • According to the Ministry of Transport, at the end of 2012 there were 1365,1 km of highways (as against 205 km in 2009) and 2052,4 km of expressways (as against 225,6 km in 2003. • Simultanenous lack of expressways and of highways is one of the reasons of low transport accessibility of podlaskie, podkarpackie and warmińsko-mazurskie voivodeships. There are also bottlenecks (low share of highways and expressways in mazowieckie voivodeship. • Despite high value added and positive network effects generarated by highways and expressways across the country, at the local level construction of such categories of roads is necessary but not sufficient to assure the rapid grwoth of gminas and powiats. The said growth is determined by a wider set of factors. The demand effect related to the investment process was significantly lower than expected. 18

  19. Condition of public finance • Deficit of the entire general government sector, as well as the deficit of the self-government units has narrowed in 2011, for the first time since 2008 • This positive trend, particularly strong in the case of self-governments, was maintained in 2012, with the deficit amounting to 3.9% of the GDP (that is 1.1 p.p. lower than in 2011) • Such a level of the deficit places Poland on the 15th position in the EU (where the average was slightly higher – 4% of the GDP).

  20. Territorial structure of the UE funds allocation • High pace of the EU funds’ allocation and implementation in Poland. • In the period 2010- June 30 2013 - 86.5% of the 2007-2013 allocation was alloted to specific projects; • The highest EU co-financing per capita was observed in: warmińsko-mazurskie (PLN 8967), podkarpackie (8840 PLN) and mazowieckie (7530 PLN); • The lowest amount of per capita co-financing was recorded in: kujawsko-pomorskie (PLN 4372), wielkopolskie (PLN 4644) and opolskie (PLN 5054) voivodeships • Significant focus of the EU financing in capital subregions of voivodeships. In the majority of voivodeships EU funds in the said regions amount to almost half (or even more) of expenditures incurred in a given voivodesh • Sizeable internat differentiation in terms of EU co-financing per capita

  21. Territorial structure of the UE funds’ allocation In the podkarpackie, śląskie and dolnośląskie voivodeships sub-regions leading in the implementation of the cohesion policy, received over 3.5 times more financing than the regions with the lowest co-financing levels. Among the NUTS-3 units, the Rzeszów subregion stands out as a leader - with the EU co-financing per capita reaching almost PLN 15 thousand (over two times higher than the national average of PLN 6354). The lowest degree of internal differentiation in this field is observed in: opolskie, kujawsko-pomorskie and lubuskie voivodeships.

  22. Territorial structure of the UE funds allocation In the majority of areas characterized by the highest concentration of the EU support, there were large infrastructural investments implemented (mostly in raliways and road infrastructure), amounting to half of the value of projects implemented in those areas. There is a visible concentration of EU expenditures in the central-eastern belt, as well as in the Western part of the country – the areas where the S7, S8 and S3 expressways, A1 i A4 highways and the modernized railway Warszawa – Gdynia are located

  23. Thank you for attention

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