METOC Metrics for Naval Special Warfare Operations

1. METOC Metrics for Naval Special Warfare Operations Project Update Tom Murphree, NPS 11 May 2007 Presented at NRL-SSC METOC Metrics, May07, murphree@nps.edu

2. NSW METOC Metrics Project Team Tom Murphree, NPS CDR Rebecca Stone, NPS Bruce Ford, CSI Paul Vodola, SPA Luke Piepkorn, SPA Thomas Pentony, SPA Larry Hsu, NRL-SSC Rick Allard, NRL-SSC NSW Directorate CDR Tim Gallaudet LCDR Bill Swick LCDR Kelly Taylor LTJG Megan Thomas OPNAV N84 LCDR Jake Hinz NETWARCOM CDR Steve Woll Collaborators METOC Metrics, May07, murphree@nps.edu

3. METOC Metrics for NSW FY07 Accomplishments Technical Objective/Funds • Outlined COA with NSW directorate collaborators • Coordinated with related METOC R&D and metrics projects • Analyzed and completed report on METOC support for small boat operations, and begun design of: (a) corresponding data collection and analysis system; and (b) ops analysis model • Collected and began evaluation of reference data sets from CERTEX and AUVFEST 07 • Established NIPR and SIPR project web sites • Develop and transition metrics system for data collection, analysis, and reporting of METOC support of NSW operations • Develop product assessment tools, including estimates of forecast uncertainties • Develop and transition operational analysis tool set for developing model based metrics ($K) FY07 FY08 FY09 6.2/6.4 0/200 0/255 0/255 Deliverables FY07/08 Plans • Small boat ops report • SIPR data collection system and metrics reports • Observational and model output data set • Model/forecast uncertainty assessment tools • Small boat ops engagement model • Develop data collection process, web entry, database, analysis and reporting system for small boat ops. • Begin collection and analysis of small boat ops data • Assess uncertainties in Delft3D output • Develop and test ops engagement model for small boat ops • Conduct similar activities for military ops on urban terrain (MOUT) METOC Metrics, May07, murphree@nps.edu

4. NSW METOC Metrics Project Sites NIPR: http://wx.met.nps.navy.mil/metrics/navy/nsw_metrics/ SIPR: http://web.ntsstl.nps.navy.smil.mil/metrics/nsw_metrics/ METOC Metrics, May07, murphree@nps.edu

5. Objectives • 1. Develop and transition to operational use systems to: • a. collect data from METOC units and customers • b. quantify METOC product performance and impacts on • customer operations • c. predict impacts of METOC support on war fighting operations • Apply systems to: • a. improve quality and efficiency of METOC support • b. develop recommendations for allocation of METOC resources • c. improve ability to incorporate METOC into Naval assessments METOC Metrics, May07, murphree@nps.edu

6. Approach • Develop automated, online system to collect and analyze real world data. • Develop and apply NSW operations engagement model. • Use real world data to modify and verify model. • Use model to modify data collection and analyses. METOC Metrics, May07, murphree@nps.edu

7. Operational Outcomes Operational Plans METOC Forecasts * METOC Observations Operational Performance Metrics METOC Performance Metrics Metrics of METOC Impacts on Operational Performance Apply this process to both real world data and output from military mission models. Process for Developing METOC Metrics * or other products METOC Metrics, May07, murphree@nps.edu

8. Online Real World Data Metrics - Schematic NSW NSW METOC and customer operational data obtained by METOC personnel via interaction with NSW customers NPS / FNMOC Data written to database Data analyzed per NPS metrics procedures Output reports delivered via web site. Reports available on demand via automated metrics calculation process. Reports delivered by METOC personnel to NSW customers Data entered remotely via web site METOC Metrics, May07, murphree@nps.edu

9. POD of negative impacts on missions from indicated phenomena Biolum SWH Currents Bathy- Biolum Cig Vis Precip Fog Haze Dust LL Traffic- metry winds ability Online Real World Data Metrics System: Notional Forecast Performance Metrics METOC Metrics, May07, murphree@nps.edu

10. Negative Mission Impacts Due to METOC Phenomena Online Real World Data Metrics System: Notional Operational Impact Metrics METOC Metrics, May07, murphree@nps.edu

11. Operational Modeling - Overview • NSW METOC Impact Assessment Tool • Simulates NSW ops • Inputs both actual METOC conditions and predictions with varying lead times and accuracies • Emulates actual mission planning processes weeks, days, and hours ahead of mission execution • Models customer decisions and outcomes based on METOC predictions and other factors • Value • Simulates impacts of METOC forecasts and phenomena on spectrum of NSW scenarios • Facilitates determination of phenomena which have significant impact on NSW operations • Establishes performance benchmarks for METOC support • Evaluates dependence of NSW effectiveness on varying types of METOC support METOC Metrics, May07, murphree@nps.edu

12. Operational Modeling - Approach • Develop realistic vignettes and scenarios for NSW, including mission-level metrics of success • Identify the environmental factors that most significantly influence NSW platform performance and operational effectiveness • Describe and model the NSW mission planning process, to include how and when METOC information is incorporated • Develop engagement model(s) for multiple NSW mission areas • Perform sensitivity analysis on METOC product accuracy and timeliness METOC Metrics, May07, murphree@nps.edu

13. Acceptable Tolerance Lines (no significant impact to operations) Region of Unacceptable Performance Some Impact to Operations – Becomes a Risk Management Decision Actual Region of Unacceptable Performance Predicted NSW METOC Metrics: Performance Thresholds What’s good enough? Performance thresholds can be determined by a combination of real world data analysis and operational modeling Ex: SWH Prediction Accuracy METOC Metrics, May07, murphree@nps.edu

14. Acceptable Tolerance Lines (no significant impact to operations) Region of Unacceptable Performance Some Impact to Operations – Becomes a Risk Management Decision Actual Region of Unacceptable Performance data point Predicted NSW METOC Metrics: Performance Thresholds What’s good enough? Performance thresholds can be determined by a combination of data analysis and operational modeling Ex: SWH Prediction Accuracy METOC Metrics, May07, murphree@nps.edu

15. Transition Strategy • Transition Plan Summary • Real world data system: transition from NPS sipr server to operational sipr server (NSW MSC, FNMOC, NAVO) • Operational modeling tool set: see next slide • Transition POC • Overall: Tom Murphree (NPS) • Real world data system: Bruce Ford (CSI) • Operational modeling toolset: Dr. Paul Vodola (SPA) • Transition Issues • Need to identify appropriate sipr server for real world data system • Need to identify best option for transitioning operational modeling tool set • Need to secure needed organizational and budgetary support for transitioning METOC Metrics, May07, murphree@nps.edu

16. Transitioning of Operational • Modeling Tool Set • Operational modeling is not presently a core CNMOC capability • Options for transitioning operational modeling system: • Transition model development and application to CNMOC • Under an existing operations analysis position • Under a future operations analysis position • Recommended solution if model development and CNMOC operations analysis capabilities are well-developed • Transition model application to CNMOC • More feasible option than transitioning model development • Transition model application to OPNAV personnel for use in POM/PR assessments • Retain model development and application within the project team and provide support to CNMOC as required • May be the most feasible option if CNMOC operations analysis capabilities are not robust at the end of the project • Throughout project, will assess best organization to which to transition, deliverables to be transitioned, and means of transitioning deliverables. METOC Metrics, May07, murphree@nps.edu

17. NSW METOC Metrics Timeline NSW METOC Metrics Milestones and Delivery Schedule S=start, D=demonstration, T=transition, R=report, C=completed Anticipate TRL = 8-9 for each deliverable by end of project METOC Metrics, May07, murphree@nps.edu

18. METOC Metrics Contact Information for Project Leads Tom Murphree, Ph.D. Naval Postgraduate School murphree@nps.edu Bruce Ford Clear Science, Inc. bruce@clearscienceinc.com Paul Vodola, Ph.D. Systems Planning and Analysis, Inc. pvodola@spa.com METOC Metrics, May07, murphree@nps.edu

19. Back-Up Slides METOC Metrics, May07, murphree@nps.edu

20. NSW MetricsProject Objectives Additional mission Types Jump training SDV Ground Combat Small Boats Training Operational modeling Expand beyondtraining missions Conceptual model depicting a fence with gates. The fence contains the metrics problem within attainable parameters. Within the fence are short-term metrics objectives; collecting metrics on ground combat, small boat training operations and conducting operational modeling on the collected data. Gates are potential expansion areas to broaden the NSW metrics collection to include missions other than training missions and additional mission types such as SDV and para jump missions. METOC Metrics, May07, murphree@nps.edu

21. Model Design VS07 Lessons Learned Model as Laboratory METOC Data Collection Model Development Performance Thresholds • METOC Support Process • Products • Timelines • ASW Decision Process • Inputs • Timelines • Mission Planning Process • Etc… New Support Products & Concepts Support Evaluation Performance Benchmark Cyclical Metrics-Based Analysis of METOC Performance Updated benchmarks Operational Modeling Schematic METOC Metrics, May07, murphree@nps.edu

22. Operations Modeling - Next Steps • NSW Mission Breakdown • Timelines • METOC support inputs • Mission planning process • Schematic design and preliminary modeling (e.g. SBU Ops, MOUT) • Simulate the NSW decision process (includes but not limited to METOC inputs) • Explore commander COAs and “what-if” scenarios • Provide initial contextual data of the NSW mission METOC Metrics, May07, murphree@nps.edu

23. METOC Metrics, May07, murphree@nps.edu

24. CERTEX Support • Naval Special Warfare Group 3 Certification Exercise – 28 Mar – 17 Apr. • SDVT 1 and 2 pre deployment certification • SAHRV collection • Not performed for models • Area used to validate other bathy • Wave Sentry buoy deployed • Updated Delft3D 48 hour forecasts provided to FDO every 12 hrs force by coupled model output form CMI Cluster (JAWS) • Parameterized Delft 3D runs provided for low bandwidth scenarios • Well liked product during SSGN TECHEVAL/OPEVAL • Wave predictions are up to 5 ft. – From SWAN input • Buoy observations < 3 ft. METOC Metrics, May07, murphree@nps.edu