Sea Shore Flow Optimizing Enlisted Career Paths

1. Sea Shore FlowOptimizing Enlisted Career Paths

2. 1 Sea Shore FlowDesired Outcomes under a New Lens

3. 2 Evolution of Sea Shore FlowNone … Close Enough … Optimal Sea Survey Shore Survey (Seavey Shorevey) – None - No defined sea tour length - Did not provide the necessary QOL, stability, or predictability for the transition to the all volunteer force. Sea Shore Rotation (SSR) – Close Enough - Tour lengths determined by the ratio of sea billets to shore billets by paygrade - Not an accurate metric for determining sea tour lengths in a sea-centric Navy. - Provided a close enough approximation for a Navy that had ample shore billets for Sailors to fill between sea duty - As the Navy finds efficiencies in the shore billet structure (i.e., becomes leaner ashore), close enough is no longer good enough Sea Shore Flow (SSF) – Optimal - Sea tour lengths determined by the optimal career path for each enlisted community - Factors each rating’s entire billet structure (EPA), continuation rates and gain distributions over time - The Navy is not as sea-intensive as indicated by SSR - Can improve FIT by shortening some sea tour lengthsSea Survey Shore Survey (Seavey Shorevey) – None - No defined sea tour length - Did not provide the necessary QOL, stability, or predictability for the transition to the all volunteer force. Sea Shore Rotation (SSR) – Close Enough - Tour lengths determined by the ratio of sea billets to shore billets by paygrade - Not an accurate metric for determining sea tour lengths in a sea-centric Navy. - Provided a close enough approximation for a Navy that had ample shore billets for Sailors to fill between sea duty - As the Navy finds efficiencies in the shore billet structure (i.e., becomes leaner ashore), close enough is no longer good enough Sea Shore Flow (SSF) – Optimal - Sea tour lengths determined by the optimal career path for each enlisted community - Factors each rating’s entire billet structure (EPA), continuation rates and gain distributions over time - The Navy is not as sea-intensive as indicated by SSR - Can improve FIT by shortening some sea tour lengths

4. 3 Sea Shore FlowOptimizing Enlisted Career Paths Sea Shore Flow Model – The Calculus (SSF for Nukes) - Deterministic math model that considers the whole of an enlisted community: - Spreads EPA over a 30-year LOS profile - Factors initial training requirements - Accounts for continuation rate and gain distribution - Maximizes FIT (i.e., prioritizes manning of operational billets) - Calculates optimal Sea Shore Flow career paths for each community - Assesses feasibility of geo-stability for each rating within an FCA SSF = f (EPA, Continuation Rate, Gain Distribution, Time) - The number of billets that can be filled at sea corresponds to the area under the EPA curve from the time each sea tour starts until it ends - The optimal career path either minimizes total time at sea (front loads sea billets to early sea tours) or minimizes deviation from ideal sea tour lengths (uniformly spreads sea tour lengths) - The primary constraint is that the total number of billets aligned to sea tours equals the sea EPA (i.e., man all billets at sea) - A side constraint (not listed but identified by the space between sea tours under the EPA curve) is the requirement for a Sailor to have a shore tour between sea tours - Assumes there is a Sailor for every billet (Billets = Bodies) and Sailors that stay in the Navy complete prescribed sea toursSea Shore Flow Model – The Calculus (SSF for Nukes) - Deterministic math model that considers the whole of an enlisted community: - Spreads EPA over a 30-year LOS profile - Factors initial training requirements - Accounts for continuation rate and gain distribution - Maximizes FIT (i.e., prioritizes manning of operational billets) - Calculates optimal Sea Shore Flow career paths for each community - Assesses feasibility of geo-stability for each rating within an FCA SSF = f (EPA, Continuation Rate, Gain Distribution, Time) - The number of billets that can be filled at sea corresponds to the area under the EPA curve from the time each sea tour starts until it ends - The optimal career path either minimizes total time at sea (front loads sea billets to early sea tours) or minimizes deviation from ideal sea tour lengths (uniformly spreads sea tour lengths) - The primary constraint is that the total number of billets aligned to sea tours equals the sea EPA (i.e., man all billets at sea) - A side constraint (not listed but identified by the space between sea tours under the EPA curve) is the requirement for a Sailor to have a shore tour between sea tours - Assumes there is a Sailor for every billet (Billets = Bodies) and Sailors that stay in the Navy complete prescribed sea tours

5. 4 Sea Shore FlowLeaky Bucket Analogy Sea Shore Flow Model – The Leaky Bucket Analogy (SSF for Aviators) The “flow” of personnel through a 30-year career with alternating sea tours and shore tours is analogous to the “flow” of water through a series of leaky buckets. - Volume of the buckets represent the number of billets to be filled in each tour - Leaks in the bucket represent attrition (attrition rate = 1 - continuation rate) - Flow rate is proportional to the EPA (i.e., the larger the community, the greater the accession mission, the more people flowing through the buckets) - The time it takes to fill up each leaky bucket corresponds to the tour length (i.e., the time a Sailor can expect to spend on each sea tour) Therefore we can improve sea shore flow for an enlisted community by: - Closing the attrition valve (i.e., improve retention) - Opening the accession valve (i.e., increase the EPA thus increasing the number of Sailors flowing through the system) - Varying the size of each bucket (i.e., align the number of billets in each tour to ensure every sea billet is manned) Sea Shore Flow Model – The Leaky Bucket Analogy (SSF for Aviators) The “flow” of personnel through a 30-year career with alternating sea tours and shore tours is analogous to the “flow” of water through a series of leaky buckets. - Volume of the buckets represent the number of billets to be filled in each tour - Leaks in the bucket represent attrition (attrition rate = 1 - continuation rate) - Flow rate is proportional to the EPA (i.e., the larger the community, the greater the accession mission, the more people flowing through the buckets) - The time it takes to fill up each leaky bucket corresponds to the tour length (i.e., the time a Sailor can expect to spend on each sea tour) Therefore we can improve sea shore flow for an enlisted community by: - Closing the attrition valve (i.e., improve retention) - Opening the accession valve (i.e., increase the EPA thus increasing the number of Sailors flowing through the system) - Varying the size of each bucket (i.e., align the number of billets in each tour to ensure every sea billet is manned)

6. 5 Sea Shore FlowWhat We Have Learned Sea Shore Rotation (SSR), the ratio of sea billets to shore billets by paygrade, is not an accurate metric for determining sea tour lengths in a sea-centric Navy Sea Shore Flow (SSF), the optimal career path for an enlisted community, determines sea tour lengths based on a rating’s entire billet structure (EPA), gain distribution, and continuation/advancement rates The Navy is not as sea-intensive as indicated by SSR Can improve FIT by shortening some sea tour lengths

7. 6 Sea Shore FlowObtaining Desired FIT Gunners Mate (GM) EMC 320 – Two Possible Solutions - Both solutions ensure all sea billets are manned (GM community has 2503 sea billets) - Neither solution matches current SSR tour length policy (executing current policy requires 2776 sea billets for GM) - Sea Shore Rotation Solution matches for Sea Tour 1 but requires either shorter subsequent sea tours or over manning (111%) at sea - Sea Shore Flow Solution matches for Sea Tours 3 and 4 but requires a shorter first sea tour to improve FIT - A longer first sea tour implies that a large portion of the sea billets are filled by Sailors on their first Sea Tour - A shorter first sea tour ensures sea billets and tour lengths are more uniformly distributed over 30 years Current Tour Length Policy (not shown on slide): Sea Shore GMSN 60 24 GM3 60 24 GM2 42 36 GM1 36 36 GMC 36 36 GMCS 36 36 GMCM 36 36Gunners Mate (GM) EMC 320 – Two Possible Solutions - Both solutions ensure all sea billets are manned (GM community has 2503 sea billets) - Neither solution matches current SSR tour length policy (executing current policy requires 2776 sea billets for GM) - Sea Shore Rotation Solution matches for Sea Tour 1 but requires either shorter subsequent sea tours or over manning (111%) at sea - Sea Shore Flow Solution matches for Sea Tours 3 and 4 but requires a shorter first sea tour to improve FIT - A longer first sea tour implies that a large portion of the sea billets are filled by Sailors on their first Sea Tour - A shorter first sea tour ensures sea billets and tour lengths are more uniformly distributed over 30 years Current Tour Length Policy (not shown on slide): Sea Shore GMSN 60 24 GM3 60 24 GM2 42 36 GM1 36 36 GMC 36 36 GMCS 36 36 GMCM 36 36

8. 7 Sea Shore FlowWhat We Have Done Received Enlisted Community Managers’ Inputs Identified Sea-Intensive Ratings Validated SDIP Candidate Ratings Validated FC(AEGIS) Action Group Billet Strategy Determined Current Feasibility for Geographic Stability Identified/Quantified Shore Billet Shortages/Excesses Developed POM-10 Sea Shore Flow Guidance Developed POM-10 Geographic Stability Guidance Developed POM-10 Community Health Matrix Revised Sea Shore Flow Enlisted Career Paths Based on Detailers and Enlisted Community Managers’ Feedback Drafted Sea Shore Flow Enlisted Career Path NAVADMIN

9. 8 Shore Intensive vs. Sea Intensive

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13. 12 Sea Shore Flow Communication Plan

14. 13 Sea Shore Flow POA&M

15. 14 Back Up Slides

16. 15 SSF PlanGunner’s Mate

17. 16 SSF PlanFire Controlman

18. 17 Sea Shore FlowCG Division – USS Hopper