Research in the CIRES-NOAA Western Water Assessment

1. Research in the CIRES-NOAA Western Water Assessment

2. Mission:Improve water-related decision-making and management in the Interior West by increasing the scope, quality, availability and relevance of climate products and knowledge.

3. Three research models:1. Assessment of vulnerability to climate-related stresses in the South Platte River basin2. Reservoir Management: User studies and applied research3. Regional Climate Monitoring and Prediction

4. Vulnerability Assessment • Will there be sufficient water of adequate quality to meet competing demands? • Municipal and Industrial • Agriculture • Environment SPRAT Team

5. Vulnerability Assessment • Stresses: • Climate Variability and • Change (e.g., drought) • Regional growth • Increased population • Changes in land use • Will there be sufficient water of adequate quality to meet competing demands? • Municipal and Industrial • Agriculture • Environment SPRAT Team

6. Vulnerability Assessment • Stresses: • Climate Variability and • Change (e.g., drought) • Regional growth • Increased population • Changes in land use Responses: New storage Conjunctive Use Increased Reuse Agricultural Efficiency Conservation • Will there be sufficient water of adequate quality to meet competing demands? • Municipal and Industrial • Agriculture • Environment SPRAT Team

7. Vulnerability Assessment • Stresses: • Climate Variability and • Change (e.g., drought) • Regional growth • Increased population • Changes in land use Responses: New storage Conjunctive Use Increased Reuse Agricultural Efficiency Conservation • Will there be sufficient water of adequate quality to meet competing demands? • Municipal and Industrial • Agriculture • Environment Goal: Improve regional capabilities to adapt to climate-related impacts. SPRAT Team

8. Drought and climate change • “The single biggest impact of the drought is how it’s changing the political environment” • Doug Kenney, 2003 • Resource managers who were surprised by the drought are skeptical that the historical record provides an adequate proxy for future climate. • The drought has stimulated renewed interest about potential impacts of climate change

9. Diversity as a problem • Increased complexity in climate models has actually led to increased diversity in projections of climate change impacts • Third IPCC Assessment vs. Second IPCC Assessment • The diversity in projections of future climate may not encompass the range of future climates we may encounter • Probabilistic estimates of future climate intrinsically downplay the element of surprise

10. The lose-lose situation • Most studies on the regional impacts of climate change focus on one or two climate change scenarios. • If stakeholders use information on climate change impacts, then they may underestimate the range of future climates they may encounter. • If stakeholders ignore information on climate change impacts, and instead rely on the historical record, then they may also underestimate the range of future climates they may encounter. • Climate impact studies help to identify the existence of a problem, but different methods are required to identify the appropriate mix of adaptive strategies.

11. Shift in research priorities • “What actions should we take, given that we cannot predict the future?” • Lempert and Schlesinger, 2000 • Research Need: Integrated assessment of the relative merits of different management strategies that may be used to adapt to stresses that arise as a consequence of climate extremes and societal change. • Research efforts can be facilitated through cooperative partnerships between scientists and decision-makers, where new problems are identified and addressed as they arise.

12. SPRAT… • Provides a regional representation of water issues • Present water allocation system • Background of climate variation • Overlay scenarios of population and land use • Explore sensitivities from perspectives of MI, agriculture, aquatic environment • Assess effectiveness of management options for reducing sensitivity

13. Modeling Scenarios • Baseline (2000) • Future (2040) • Increase population (~50%) • Decrease irrigated acreage (~10%) • Shift water rights consistent with changes in population and land use • Run SPRAT with 80-year hydroclimate trace

14. SPRAT Results: Central Region SPRAT Team

15. Sensitivity metric—shortage index (Supply – Demand) Risk of shortage = Demand (<0 = water shortage) (=1 = one-year surplus) Supplies = reservoir contents in October = water year inflows = water year return flows Demands = potential water use

16. SPRAT Results: Central Region SPRAT Team

17. Response to climate-related stresses • No Action (2040 scenario) • New Storage • Conjunctive Use • Water Reuse • Increased Agricultural Efficiency • Municipal Conservation

18. New storage

19. New storage Central Region SPRAT Team

20. Decision-relevant questions • Which sectors and regions are most sensitive to the combined impacts of climate variability and regional growth? How sensitive? • What is the relative importance of climate-induced vulnerability when compared to other stresses? • Which adaptations (or mix of adaptations) provide the greatest protection (i.e., reduce vulnerability). • What is the basis for evaluating trade-offs when a coping strategy benefits one region, but has detrimental effects on another region?

21. Emerging and Potential Partnerships • The Denver Regional Council of Governments (DRCOG) • EPA • City of Westminster • Denver Metro Wastewater Reclamation District • Plum Creek Wastewater Authority • Others • Development of a core office to build partnerships that are based, among other things, SPRAT output.

22. Summary: SPRAT • Integration • Integration occurred early—the research question of regional sustainability required input from multiple disciplines • Linkages with decision-makers • Initial contact with decision-makers to identify regional issues • Did not engage decision-makers to identify decision-relevant research questions • Decision-makers have diverse and sometimes competing interests, and we could not incorporate all of their concerns in a cost effective way • By restricting attention to a subset of decision-makers we may bias our analysis and be overly constrained by their political agenda • We relied on our collective knowledge of regional issues to develop the integrated methodology.

23. Three research models:1. Assessment of vulnerability to climate-related stresses in the South Platte River basin2. Reservoir Management: User studies and applied research3. Regional Climate Monitoring and Prediction

24. Identify societally-relevant problem sensitive to climate variability

25. Yampa River at Maybell Colorado River at Glenwood Springs The endangered species problem… augment the natural peak with releases from reservoirs to benefit endangered fish John Pitlick

26. Identify societally-relevant problem sensitive to climate variability Identify decision-makers and their key stakeholders Assess how potentially predictable aspects of climate interact with critical problems

27. Andrea Ray

28. Identify societally-relevant problem sensitive to climate variability Identify decision-makers and their key stakeholders Assess how potentially predictable aspects of climate interact with critical problems Prospecting for research that meets user needs

29. Andrea Ray

30. Identify societally-relevant problem sensitive to climate variability Begin developing experimental methods for forecasting runoff Identify decision-makers and their key stakeholders Continue developing experimental methods and publish results Assess how potentially predictable aspects of climate interact with critical problems

31. Animas River Basin (Southwest Colorado) DOWNSCALED MRF OUTPUT ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW PREDICTION Martyn Clark and Lauren Hay

32. Identify societally-relevant problem sensitive to climate variability Begin developing experimental methods for forecasting runoff Identify decision-makers and their key stakeholders Continue developing experimental methods and publish results Assess how potentially predictable aspects of climate interact with critical problems Link with federal R&D labs to improve potential transfer to operational products Pilot implementation of experimental streamflow forecasting methodology in the Upper Colorado River basin in spring 2003

33. Applied project: Real time experimental streamflow forecast • Funding from CWCB • Entrained non-WWA work at CDC and USGS • Confluence of user study and several research projects: • CDC’s MRF “reforecast,” downscaled to basin scale by WWA • Downscaled forecasts used in CBRFC hydrologic models, provided to CBRFC since January 2003 • CBRFC implementing experimental forecasts, will provide both operational and experimental forecasts on their webpage this spring • Reservoir manager partners agree to consider and evaluate the product; briefing conducted in March 2003 • Document and assess the process of how this information is used in their decision process

34. Identify societally-relevant problem sensitive to climate variability Begin developing experimental methods for forecasting runoff Identify decision-makers and their key stakeholders Continue developing experimental methods and present results Assess how potentially predictable aspects of climate interact with critical problems Link with federal R&D labs to improve potential transfer to operational products Pilot implementation of experimental streamflow forecasting methodology in the Upper Colorado River basin in spring 2003 Document and assess how knowledge is used is used in reservoir operators’ decision process as well as assess improvement of forecast

35. Photo: Brad Udall

36. Summary: User Studies and Applied Research • Linkages with decision-makers: • Occurred early, and has been constant throughout the project • Link to operational partners occurred fairly early to improve potential to transfer to operational products • Includes NWS Office of Hydrologic Development to develop tools that may ultimately be used in the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service • Integration • Approach anticipated that other research projects would be integrated as user needs were identified and refined • Next steps: Continue prospecting for other potentially useful products and research

37. Three research models:1. Assessment of vulnerability to climate-related stresses in the South Platte River basin2. Reservoir Management: User studies and applied research3. Regional Climate Monitoring and Prediction

38. Regional climate monitoring and prediction • Based on critical needs from decision-makers, develop a suite of hydroclimate monitoring and prediction products that specifically address user needs.

39. Photo: Brad Udall

40. Partnership with theColorado Water Availability (Drought) Task Force • Regional climate monitoring Klaus Wolter

41. How dry was 2002? • Regional climate monitoring Klaus Wolter

42. How dry was 2002? • Regional climate monitoring Klaus Wolter

43. Paleo-hydro reconstructions of streamflow • Several years in the paleo record are as dry as 2002 Connie Woodhouse

44. Partnership with theColorado Water Availability (Drought) Task Force • Experimental climate prediction • Experimental forecast for April-June 2003 Klaus Wolter

45. Tailored Operational MRF for the Yampa River region Bias and skill for the past 30-days Exceedance probability P(T>5oC) http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/ensemble/ Ensemble spread Shaleen Jain

46. Summary: Regional Climate Monitoring and Prediction • Linkages with decision-makers: • Occurred early, and has been constant throughout the project • Integration • Integration with experts in other disciplines in the Colorado Water Availability (Drought) task Force.

47. Research Process… Initial Interaction Integration and Development Advanced Interaction Product Development Evaluation and Technology Transfer Experimental Monitoring Reservoir Management SPRAT 1 1 (1) 2 3 3 4 4 4 3 2 2 5

48. Effectiveness = use and influence

49. Questions?