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Projection of West Virginia K-12 (0-19 Years Old) Population

Projection of West Virginia K-12 (0-19 Years Old) Population. Christiadi Bureau of Business and Economic Research College of Business and Economics West Virginia University. Presented at the: WEST VIRGINIA BOARD OF EDUCATION

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Projection of West Virginia K-12 (0-19 Years Old) Population

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  1. Projection of West Virginia K-12(0-19 Years Old) Population Christiadi Bureau of Business and Economic Research College of Business and Economics West Virginia University Presented at the: WEST VIRGINIA BOARD OF EDUCATION Commission on School District Governance and Administration Meeting Charleston, WV March 27-28, 2014

  2. WV Population is not Expected to Grow as Fast as Previously Predicted Old Projection New Projection

  3. WV vs. US Demographics • WV population has always been among the oldest since 1970. • In 2010: • WV median age = 40.5, 3rd in the nation. • WV share of 65+ = 16.0 percent, 2ndin the nation. • Both the state and US population are aging. The path of aging, however, is different: • Between 2000 and 2010, the old & young population in the nation are both growing but the old is growing faster. • In the state, older population is growing while young population is declining.

  4. Between 2000 and 2010 Population in the Younger Age Groups Declined, Population in the Older Age Groups Rose Thousands Sources: Decennial censuses, U.S. Census Bureau

  5. In the next Two Decades, Population in the Younger Age Groups is Expected to Continue to Decline 5-24 25-44 45-64 65+ Source: 2010 Census, U.S. Census Bureau

  6. WV Population 0-19 has been Declining since 1970 Thousands Source: 2010 U.S. Census. U.S. Census Bureau

  7. K-12 Head-Count Enrollment, WV Note: 2002 means 2001-2002 academic year. Source: WV Department of Education

  8. K-12 FTE Enrollment with vs. without Early Childhood Enrolment Source: “Early Childhood Effect on FTE Enrollment History” WV County Boards of Education, 2014

  9. Grade Progression: Cohort Analysis Cohort: Enrolled (Head-Count) in Grade K in 2001-02 to 2003-04 Thousands Source: Author’s calculations of the West Virginia Department of Education head-count enrollment data

  10. Estimated Population 18+ Enrolled in High School in 2011 Thousands Source: Author’s calculations of the US Census Bureau’s 2012 American Community Survey data

  11. What Would Happen to WV Population 0-19 in the Next Two Decades? Thousands Source: 2010 U.S. Census. U.S. Census Bureau

  12. What Would Happen to WV Population 0-19 in the Next Two Decades? Thousands ? Source: 2010 U.S. Census. U.S. Census Bureau

  13. Factors Determining Population 0-19 in WV • Birth Rate • The Number of Women at Child-bearing Age (15-44) • Migration

  14. General Fertility Rate, WV and the US General Fertility Rate = Total Births per 1000 Women 15-44 Years of Age. Sources: Decennial Censuses, U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. National Center for Health Statistics, National Vital Statistics Reports (NVSR) and the WV Bureau for Public Health, Health Statistics Center

  15. Births and Deaths, WV vs. the US West Virginia United States Sources: U.S. National Center for Health Statistics, National Vital Statistics Reports (NVSR) and the WV Bureau for Public Health, Health Statistics Center.

  16. The Number of Women at Child-bearing Age (15-44) is Declining Thousands Sources: Decennial censuses, U.S. Census Bureau

  17. .. and is expected to Continue to Decline D B Assuming Death & Migration are 0: Total in 2010 = B + C + D = 342.0 thousand Total in 2020 = A + B + C = 329.4 thousand  a 12.6 thousand decline C A Thousands Source: 2010 U.S. Census. U.S. Census Bureau

  18. WV Net-Migration, 1991-2013

  19. What Would Happen to WV Population 0-19 in the Next Two Decades? Thousands Sources: US Census Bureau 2010 Census and Author’s calculations of vital statistics data from the West Virginia Bureau for Public Health data, Health Statistics Center.

  20. Estimated Accumulated 2010-2029 Births vs. Population 0-19, WV Thousands Sources: 2010 Census, U.S. Census Bureau and 2014 WV Population Projection, Bureau of Business and Economic Research

  21. WV Population 0-19, 1970 to 2030 Sources: Decennial censuses, U.S. Census Bureau and the 2014 WV Population Projection Bureau of Business and Economic Research, West Virginia University

  22. 2010-2020 Absolute Change of Population 0-19 Years Old West Virginia Sources: Author’s calculations

  23. 2010-2020 Percent Change of Population 0-19 Years Old West Virginia Sources: Author’s calculations

  24. 2010-20 Percent Change of Population 0-19 Years Old by County, WV Source: Author’s calculations

  25. Summary • WV population is aging • WV population 0-19 is declining as a result of: • Baby boomers get older • Decline in births • Migration? • WV young population (0-19) is expected to continue to decline at least in the next decade • Maintaining K-12 enrollment will be a challenge • Counties with declining enrollment is expected to see continued decline in enrollment For other questions on demographic issues in the state, contact: christiadi@mail.wvu.edu

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