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Climate Change Impacts on Public Health: a Taiwan Study

Climate Change Impacts on Public Health: a Taiwan Study. Huey-Jen Jenny (Jenny) Su Distinguished Professor Dept. of Environmental and Occupational Health, Vice President National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, TAIWAN. N ational C heng K ung U niversity.

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Climate Change Impacts on Public Health: a Taiwan Study

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  1. Climate Change Impacts on Public Health: a Taiwan Study Huey-Jen Jenny (Jenny) Su Distinguished Professor Dept. of Environmental and Occupational Health, Vice President National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, TAIWAN

  2. National Cheng Kung University

  3. How human activities affect climate and atmosphere activities ? IPCC, 2007

  4. World’s Population Densities WRI, 2000

  5. Temperature changing over the past century Global Taiwan +1.4oC +0.7oC IPCC, 2007; Chen, 2008; EPA Taiwan, 2009

  6. Global Taiwan Precipitation Dry daysIntensity Precipitation Rain hour(hour) Intensity IPCC, 2007; Liu, 2002

  7. Flooding in Newcastle, Australia, 2007 Desertification in Hebei Province, China, 2000 Climate change and health effects Direct impacts (Injury/death) fire, wind storm, heat Climate Change Primary Global warming Extreme weather Indirect impacts air/water/soil pollution-related health effect, food/water security and sufficiency, allergies, infectious diseases Secondary Long-term/afterward impacts mental health, conflict, famine, migration, refugees, economic loss Tertiary IPCC, 2007; Lovett et al., 2009; Butler et al., 2010

  8. Climate Change and Primary Health Effects in Taiwan

  9. Extreme rainfall and primary health effect CWB Taiwan

  10. Mean cardiovascular mortality 14 days after extreme temperature events Heat event Cold event Wu et al., 2011

  11. Examining the Spatial Relationships among Cardiovascular Mortality after the Extreme Temperature Events Baseline of mortality, event temperature, socioeconomic and demographic factors by using spatial analysis. *p<0.1 **p<0.05 Wu et al., 2011

  12. Climate Change and Secondary Health Effects in Taiwan

  13. Minimum temperature, OC Reported dengue fever incidence by temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, and frequency of Breteua Index≧5 from July 1988 to December 2003 Wu et al., 2009

  14. Weather as an Effective Predictor for Occurrence of Dengue Fever in Taiwan The actual incidence, predicted incidence and forecast incidence from Jan. 2004 to May 2006 by auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model of weather variation in Kaohsiung City, Taiwan Wu et al., 2009

  15. The risk assessment model of dengue fever Wu et al., 2009

  16. Risk map of dengue fever transmission The areas with high risk of reporting dengue fever infection would likely to expand from south to north, and human population at high risk for dengue fever transmission would increase 1.95 times (from 3,966,173 to 7,748,267) along with increasing temperature. Risk map of dengue fever transmission estimated when average monthly temperature under CCCma A2 scenario (increased about 2°C) Risk map of dengue fever transmission estimated when average monthly temperature increased by 1 °C across the year Risk map of dengue fever transmission based on temperature and population density data between 1998 to 2002 48 high risk areas 86 high risk areas 102 high risk areas Wu et al., 2009

  17. Precipitation and typhoon impacts on infectious diseases in Taiwan There were 73 Typhoon events during 1994 to 2005 around Taiwan . The Central weather Bureau defined that 62 Typhoon attacked Taiwan. 18

  18. Pre- and post-typhoon and infectious disease incidence rate using Poisson regression &The weeks Pre- and Post-Typhoon # Information from CDC ※Rate Ration * p<0.05 19 Su et al., 2007

  19. The rainfall density (mm/day) and Shigellosis cases after Typhoon Nari 2 weeks Typhoon Nari, 2001 Chen et al., 2011

  20. Water/soil pollutants after extreme precipitation in Taiwan Rejection in Feitsui reservoir, Taiwan after Typhoon attracted Drinking Water Rejection after Extreme Precipitation (Megi Storm, Oct. 2010) in Taiwan Agricultural land Lovett et al., 2009

  21. 40 cases in southern Taiwan. 97.5% cases resided in the flooded zones. 70% cases contacted with mud or flooding waters. 67.5% cases had existing chronic illness. Flooding and outbreak of Melioidosis (2005) Typhoon Haitang, Taiwan (2005) HR Guo, et. al., 2007; Chen et al., 2011

  22. Extreme precipitation affects infectious disease distributions in Taiwan, 1994–2008 Meteorological Data The accumulated daily precipitation and mean daily temperature data from Central Weather Bureau (CBW) of Taiwan during 1994 to 2008 were acquired. Extrapolation Study extrapolated the available precipitation and temperature data for every townships. Definition of Extreme Precipitation 130-200 mm/day: heavy rain 200-350 mm/day: torrential rain >350 mm/day: extreme torrential rain (As defined by Taiwan CBW) Averaged 99th percentile of precipitation for the 352 townships in Taiwan was 92.80 mm/day • Statistical Analysis • Spearman’s correlation coefficient identified that extreme precipitation were associated with the occurrence of 8 climate-related infectious diseases with lags of 0–70 days • Time series analysis for Log-term effects in overall Taiwan • 2. Grating Models of every townships for regional assessment Infectious Disease Definitions The computerized database with recorded daily notification of 8 legal infectious disease cases from Taiwan CDC, 1994–2008. Chen et al., 2011

  23. Relative risk of precipitation on 8 climate-related infectious diseases in Taiwan Chen et al., 2011

  24. The risk map of 8 climate-related infectious diseases in Taiwan Chen et al., 2011

  25. Climate Change and Tertiary Health Effects in Taiwan

  26. Pathways linking climate change and mental health www.AlertNet.org Berry et al., 2011

  27. A multidimensional anxiety assessment of adolescents after Typhoon Morakot-associated mudslides • This survey was conducted with 271 adolescents in three junior high schools in mountainous regions of southern Taiwan which were worst-affected by Typhoon Morakot. • In total, 73 students (26.9%) had a diagnosis of PTSD. Of these, 65 had PTSD related to Typhoon Morakot, 3 had PTSD related to traumatic events other than Typhoon Morakot (one experienced a traffic accident, one witnessed a brother’s traffic accident, and one was severely hurt in a fight), and 5 had PTSD related to both Typhoon Morakot and other factors. Yen et al., 2010

  28. Relationship between mean daily ambient temperature range and hospitaladmissions for schizophrenia: results from a national cohort of psychiatric inpatients Relationships between mean and mean daily range of temperature and relative risks with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of schizophrenia admissions in Taipei city, 1996–2007.Analyzed by generalized linear models with Poisson regression, and adjusted for age, gender, daily precipitation, calendar month, and hospital authority Sung et al., 2011 (in press)

  29. The Health Effects under Climate Change in Taiwan

  30. Future collaboration Health impacts Regional weather changes Continuing the adaptation process, international comparison and international collaboration

  31. Thank you for your attentions

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