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Mark Barrett UCL / SENCO

Energy scenarios for Europe options for energy security and emission control project for the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency. Mark Barrett UCL / SENCO. Aim.

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Mark Barrett UCL / SENCO

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  1. Energy scenarios for Europeoptions for energy security and emission control project for the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency Mark Barrett UCL / SENCO

  2. Aim Investigate energy strategies for the EU25 that achieve multiple environmental and energy goals at low or minimum overall cost. (SEEScen model) Goals: • environment • global warming • atmospheric pollutants • other pollutants • energy security • minimum imports of finite fuels

  3. Options Investigate deployment of ‘Non-end-of-pipe’ (NEOP) options that reduce finite fuels and atmospheric emissions.

  4. Process • Generate energy scenarios • collect base data • develop assumptions about policy options • run scenarios • output results data • energy flows through different sectors and technologies • costs and emissions • Translate energy flow data into RAINS format • IIASA run RAINS

  5. Some critical input assumptions • CO2 targets • for 2010/12, 2020 and the longer term • include international transport - aviation, shipping? • Demand drivers • population and households • economic growth and sectoral activity • Energy • international energy prices • future generation from existing and new nuclear stations • energy trade balance constraints between EU25 and rest of world Any advice from TFIAM concerning these welcomed.

  6. Sample output: UK scenario: energy flow chart for 2050

  7. Sample output: UK scenario: electricity

  8. Sample output: UK scenario: CO2

  9. Sample output: UK CO2 by scenario

  10. Sample output: UK scenario: Total cost

  11. Timetable • Energy scenarios ready by mid-November • Transfer of energy data to RAINS – Nov/Dec • IIASA to run RAINS - end of the year • Results ready to present at the NECPI meeting in Jan/Feb 2007

  12. Where to reach Mark ? Mark.Barrett@ucl.ac.uk MarkBarrett@sencouk.co.uk Tel +44 07837 33829 www.SENCOuk.co.uk

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