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IMT-2000 The business case and Key Markets

IMT-2000 The business case and Key Markets. A presentation from UMTS Forum, Market Aspect Group. IMT-2000 Workshop, St Helier, Jersey, 10-11 November 1998. Content. 2G Experience Challenges 2G versus 3G 3G at the beginning Framework for commercial case conclusion. Medium.

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IMT-2000 The business case and Key Markets

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  1. IMT-2000 The business case and Key Markets A presentation from UMTS Forum, Market Aspect Group IMT-2000 Workshop, St Helier, Jersey, 10-11 November 1998

  2. Content • 2G Experience • Challenges • 2G versus 3G • 3G at the beginning • Framework for commercial case • conclusion

  3. Medium Market driver Phase Action Competition Mobile Penetration GSM Voice centric Infancy Attracting 1 or 2 Marginal operators phase 1 subscribers GSM Services Differentiation phase 2 - voice mail Keeping subscribers, 2 or 3 10 to 30% operators Sophistication - pre paid Increasing - messaging Traffic - pre-data Increasing traffic GSM -Data (64 kb/s) Maturation Developing data 3 or 4 30 to 40% applications operators phase 2+ -Internet and Technological Preparing Next Step limits UMTS Mature Multimedia Developing the market 40 to 50% 3rd Content (2Mb/s) New Age Generation 2G ExperiencePhasing the Mobile Evolution in Western Europe

  4. Million Subscribers 3.5 3.0 Operator 3 2.5 2.0 Operator 2 1.5 1.0 Operator 1 0.5 0.0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2G ExperienceCompetition at Operator Level

  5. Approach per Segment Infra. Capex Capacity QoS Coverage Services Deep Indoor Coverage Packet Data capability Time 2G ExperienceThe future will very likely be Service Driven Was National in 2G A typical investment profile from Operator’s perspective, in 2G packet data capability is an issue.

  6. ChallengeDelivering information services over mobile

  7. ChallengeThe value proposition to the end user must be obvious(and affordable)

  8. 3G at the beginningEarly Adopters likely to be Business Users Starting point of mobile business VIP Solution for Corporates Penetration Process over Time Data Services Business Pre-paid Mass Market

  9. 3G at the beginningNon voice adoption over mobile(Western Europe)

  10. ChallengeIndustry relationships • End user categories in different contexts • Value Proposition (Voice and Non Voice based services) • Operators • Service Providers • Value Added /Content Service Providers • Vendors (Infrastructure, Terminal, Software Application, Components…)

  11. ChallengeNew relationships

  12. 2G versus 3G Existing Product New product Where 2G is = Mobile Voice Existing Market Where 3G will be Where 2G will be = Information Service on mobile with data bearer service New Market

  13. 2G versus 3GExpanding The market 3G 3G will enable a wide range of services and combinations with fixed

  14. Million Subscribers Penetration (%) 250 70% UMTS 60% 200 50% 150 Penetration 40% GSM 100 30% 50 20% analogue 0 10% 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 3G at the beginningIMT-2000 is likely to emerge in a strong 2G installed base • Western Europe case • UMTS will emerge as islands in an ocean of GSM • Dual mode terminals will be key

  15. Billion $ 90 80 Data Corporate Mobile Mobile Multimedia 70 Data-Professional 60 Voice-Corporate 200 millions Users 50 Service Revenues 104 billion ECU 40 Voice-Consumer 30 6.3 billion Traffic Mbytes/month 20 Voice-Professional 0% 50% 100% 0% 50% 100% 10 0 2001 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 3G at the beginningRevenue Side Mobile market prediction for Western Europe by 2005 The likely traffic Revenue picture in Western Europe before 3G Source: UMTS Forum 97

  16. Framework for commercial case • Business versus mass market • Services what are they? • How different from 2G Services? • Business, Social, Entertainment • Timing-time to market dates • Basic relationship of Service Charge

  17. Business Case for IMT-2000 • Will vary among operators • Need full industry support to meet a scale effect (vendor concerns) • Need new relationships and content player to bring information services on mobile (Challenge)

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