The Fading Promise of Welfare Reform to End Child Poverty

1. The Fading Promise of Welfare Reform to End Child Poverty Duncan Lindsey

2. The Overlap of Welfare, CPS and Foster Care Welfare Families Families served by CPS Foster Care

3. Child welfare and welfare Frame (1998) 25% of children in new welfare cases in California had history of involvement with child welfare system. Shook (1999) 40% of children in foster care were on welfare the month before placement. Another 20% on welfare in previous months. Palmer, Rogers, Digre, & Williams (1997) 70% of child welfare families receiving welfare.

4. Children new to foster care from welfare families: California 90% Illinois 85% North Carolina 90% Source: Needell, Cucaro-Alamin, Brookhard, and Lee (1999)

5. Foster Care in Los Angeles 97% of foster care children in Los Angeles come from homes below the poverty line Source: Los Angeles Times (1999)

6. Welfare provides income support for low income mothers.Historic concern that providing welfare made women dependent on it.Welfare reform was meant to encourage single mothers to work so that they wouldn’t need welfare.It was believed that welfare reform would improve the situation of poor children.

7. Welfare Reform Debate The Washington Post (1995) wrote: “Now here is the part you need to know: Mr. Clinton’s own advisors have told him that it would likely consign as many as a million more children to poverty. ------------------------------------------ Marian Wright Edelman (1995) An open letter to President Clinton It would be a great moral and practical wrong for you to sign any welfare “reform” bill that will push millions of already poor children and families deeper into poverty. .. But longer-term and perhaps irreparable damage will be inflicted on children if you permit to be destroyed the fundamental moral principle that an American child, regardless of the state or parents the child chanced to draw, is entitled to protection of last resort by his or her national government. Entitlement

8. Marian Wright Edelman (1995) [The proposed welfare reform] .. is the domestic equivalent of bombing Vietnamese villages in order to save them. It is moral hypocrisy for our nation to slash income, health and nutrition assistance for poor children while leaving untouched hundreds of billions in corporate welfare, giving new tax breaks of over $200 billion for non-needy citizens…

9. Daniel Patrick Moynihan (1995) If in 10 years time we find children sleeping on grates, picked up in the morning frozen, and ask, Why are they here scavenging, awful to themselves, awful to one another …it will have begun on the House floor this spring and the Senate chamber this autumn.”

10. Daniel Patrick Moynihan (1995) described the welfare reform bill as “the most brutal act of social policy since reconstruction” and predicted “those involved will take this disgrace to their graves.”

11. President Clinton campaigned on a promise toChange welfare as we know it. The welfare system was widely viewed as a failed system, the time for reform was ripe: On August 18, 1996 President Clinton signed the welfare reform bill into law.

12. Welfare ReformPersonal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act (PRWORA) • No longer an entitlement. • States provided block grants and greater flexibility. • Time limits. • Work requirements.

13. Results: What happened? You are working with many of these families. What have you seen? Has there been an improvement in the lives of families that used to be on welfare? Did welfare reform strengthen these families?

14. What has been the impact of welfare reform on children? Are there fewer poor children? Is the situation for poor children improving? How can we answer these questions?

15. Welfare Recipients Source: http://www.acf.dhhs.gov/news/stats/recipients.htm

16. Greatest declines 1993 2002 Wisconsin 241,000 44,000 Florida 702,000 129,000 Illinois 686,000 154,000 Louisiana 263,000 65,000 Mississippi 121,000 23,000 Source: http://www.acf.dhhs.gov/news/stats/caseload.htm

17. Robert Rector and Patrick Fagan (2001) “Overall poverty, child poverty and black child poverty have all dropped substantially. .. there are 4.2 million fewer people living in poverty today than there were in 1996, according to Census Bureau figures. Some 2.3 million fewer children live in poverty today than in 1996.” “Welfare caseloads have been cut nearly in half and employment of the most disadvantaged single mothers has increased from 50 to 100 percent.”

18. Jay Hein (2001) of the Hudson Institute Indeed, the success of TANF has exceeded even the brightest of reform’s optimists. All the important social indicators are pointing in the right direction: welfare rolls are down; employment is up; teen pregnancy is down; and wages are up.

19. Children receiving welfare1993 9,382,000 1996 8,671,000 2001 4,055,000 Source: http://www.acf.dhhs.gov/programs/opre/ar2001/0203c.htm

20. Child poverty in the US Child Poverty Rates in the United States, 1990 to 2000

21. Child poverty in states with welfare declines Child Poverty in States with the Greatest Decreases in Welfare Recipients

22. Did child poverty decline? Imprecision of CPS estimates? Did declines in welfare caseloads match declines in child poverty rates?

23. Precision of Estimates

24. Children removed from poverty The Number of Children Removed from Welfare Compared to the Number of Children Removed from Poverty

25. Idaho and Wyoming

26. Idaho and Wyoming 2 Children Leaving Welfare and Poverty

27. What about other child welfare indicators? Did out-of-wedlock births decline? Have foster care caseloads declined?

28. Changes in the Percentage of Births to Unmarried Women

29. Foster Care in the United States Source: http://www.acf.dhhs.gov/programs/cb/dis/tables/sec11gb/national.htm#national

30. Children in Foster Care in Wisconsin Source: ACF and CWLA

31. Children in Foster Care in Florida Source: ACF and CWLA

32. Did single mothers work more?

33. Employment Status of Single and Married Mothers, 1990 – 2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

34. How can we assess the economic impact of welfare reform? • Once a family leaves welfare, then systematic data is no longer collected by the agency. • Census data on poverty are limited. Based on samples that have small sub samples of welfare families. These sub samples have levels of confidence that restrict the precision of measurement.

35. Where might we find more reliable data? Who might have data on these families? Child welfare agencies? Child support enforcement agencies? Schools? Police? Hospitals?

36. Food Stamps and Welfare Most people receiving welfare, also receive food stamps. Food stamp offices collect extensive income data on clients to determine eligibility. Independent of welfare eligibility. Children are the largest recipient group.

37. Welfare and Food Stamps • What happens with food stamp caseload should mirror what happens with welfare. That is, as welfare caseloads decline, food stamp caseloads should also decline. • What happens with children receiving welfare, should be mirrored by children receiving food stamps.

38. Food stamps and welfare parallel each other

39. Income of the Average Food Stamp family. Source: USDA (2002). See http:www.fns.usda.gov

40. 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 - 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Comparison of Food Stamp and Welfare Recipient Declines in Wisconsin Change from 96 -02 • Welfare / Food Stamps 1993 = 71% 2002 = 17%

41. 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 - 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Comparison of Food Stamp and Welfare Recipient Declines in Florida • Welfare / Food Stamps 1993 = 47%% 2002 = 13%

42. Comparison of Food Stamp and Welfare Recipient Declines in Mississippi • Welfare / Food Stamps 1993 = 32%% 2002 = 13%

43. Comparison of Food Stamp and Welfare Recipient Declines in Louisiana • Welfare / Food Stamps 1993 = 34%% 2002 = 11%

44. 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 - 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Comparison of Food Stamp and Welfare Recipient Declines in Illinois • Welfare / Food Stamps 1993 = 58% 2002 = 18%

45. Why the divergence? • Why did the decline in the welfare caseload so exceed the decline in Food Stamp recipients? • Both programs address the same problem.

46. Child Recipients of Welfare and Food Stamps

47. Average Monthly Benefit per Person for the Food Stamp Program

48. Parents provided welfare (2001) No parent1 parent2 parents Florida 52.8% 47.2% 0 Illinois 30.1 69.3 .6 California 38.3 61.7 0 See: L.A. Times (August 24, 2002)

49. What does the Food Stamp data indicate?The economic situation of most poor children has not improved.This contradicts welfare caseload declines that suggests substantial improvement.Is there other data that would allow for further examination this question? Triangulate

50. The program specifically targeted to poor children that could help is the Federally Subsidized Free Lunch program. The modern day soup line for kids.