1 / 71

ADVANCED MOMENTUM

ADVANCED MOMENTUM. WORLD DOMINANCE. CATALOGUE OF CYCLES. COMMODITY PRICES. 40 MONTH CYCLE. DIVIDEND YIELDS. ZIPF’S LAW. TRIADS. ONE BASE CYCLE. TWO TREND CYCLE. THREE TERMINAL CYCLE. THE WEB IS A BOW TIE. WHERE ARE WE?. 83%. 17%. 50%. 1. 3. B. 3/6. 5/6. 1/6. 4/6. 2/6. A.

hubert
Download Presentation

ADVANCED MOMENTUM

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. ADVANCED MOMENTUM

  2. WORLD DOMINANCE

  3. CATALOGUE OF CYCLES

  4. COMMODITY PRICES

  5. 40 MONTH CYCLE

  6. DIVIDEND YIELDS

  7. ZIPF’S LAW

  8. TRIADS ONE BASE CYCLE TWO TREND CYCLE THREE TERMINAL CYCLE

  9. THE WEB IS A BOW TIE

  10. WHERE ARE WE? 83% 17% 50% 1 3 B 3/6 5/6 1/6 4/6 2/6 A C 0 2 100% 0% 67% 33%

  11. RELATIONSHIP - ECONOMIC CYCLES

  12. HUMAN EXCITABILITY CYCLE – A J TCHIJEVSKY • 3 YEARS • MINIMUM • EXCITABILITY • Fear • Tolerance • Passiveness • Lack of unity • 2 YEARS • EXCITABILITY • GROWS • 3 YEARS • MAXIMUM • EXCITABILITY • RIOTS • 4 YEARS • DECREASE • IN • EXCITABILITY • INERT • APATHETIC • CRY FOR PEACE

  13. FAITH AND BANK DEPOSIT CYCLES FAITH 9 YRS 9 YRS 9 YRS DEPOSITS

  14. VOLATILITY - VIX

  15. MUTUAL FUNDS CASH/ASSET RATIO

  16. REDEFINING SECTOR ROTATION EARLY ECONOMIC CYCLE MIDDLE ECONOMIC CYCLE LATE ECONOMIC CYCLE

  17. REDEFINING SECTOR ROTATION

  18. REGULARITY IMPLIES PREDICTABILITYSpeculation and War - ERD THE 9.6 YEAR CYCLE Number of Atlantic Salmon Abundance of snowshoe rabbits in Canada Heart Diseases in Northwestern US Grasshopper outbreak Pine cones are plentiful in cycle People join churches in cycles Women are amorous in cycles Sunspots erupt in greater numbers in cycles Poets are more creative in cycles Weather fluctuates in cycles International battles fluctuation in cycles Stocks and indices fluctuate in cycles

  19. SCIENCE WITHOUT CYCLES IS INCOMPLETE- ERD Murder, 6PM-6AM, High Jul and Aug Burglary, 6PM-2AM, Saturday night, Dec/Jan/Feb The most uncriminal month of all – May But more dog bites Jun is peak month for suicides Admission to mental hospitals Also peak month for marriages The number of earthquakes fluctuate in cycles Real estate activities fluctuate in cycles Male emotion Industrial accidents Advertising effectiveness fluctuates in cycles Even political landslide and number of infants born per day

  20. MOMENTUM CONVENTIONAL AND NON CONVENTIONAL TECHNICQUES OF FORECASTING

  21. CONCEPT - THE BASIC PREMISE MOMENTUM – DEFINITION BASIC MOMENTUM RULES CHARACTERISTICS – VOLATILITIES/ EXTREMES/DIVERGENCES INTERPRETATION - SIGNALS CLASSIFICATION - BANDED/NON BANDED CONSTRUCTION - SPECIFICATIONS MISCONCEPTIONS - 0 TO 100 CYCLICALITY - OSCILLATOR PERIODICITY - DEFAULT/GENERATED SETUPS - MAC2/STOCH2/R3/COMPOSITE PRICE PROJECTIONS USING RSI - POSITIVE N NEGATIVE REVERSALS/RE-ENGINEERING SUMMARY- MOMENTUM GRID

  22. CONCEPT - THE BASIC PREMISE CONVENTIONALISM TREND DETERMINATION CONCERNS PRICE/TRENDLINES/PRICE PATTERNS AND MOVING AVERAGES THOUGH USEFUL, TREND IDENTIFICATION HAPPENS AFTER THE TREND CHANGE TAKES PLACE MOMENTUM ON THE OTHER HAND WARNS OF LATENT STRENGTH/WEAKNESS OFTEN WELL AHEAD OF THE TURN RULE – MOMENTUM ANALYSIS SHOULD BE USED IN CONJUNCTION WITH TREND REVERSAL SIGNAL FROM PRICE OSCILLATOR USAGE IN CONJUNCTION OF TREND “SKILL OF JUGEMENT AND INTEPRETATION MARK THE LINE IN THE SAND THAT SEPERATES THE RETAIL TRADER FROM THE PROFESSIONAL” – CONSTANCE BROWN NON CONVENTIONAL VOLATILITY COMES FROM INDEPENDENT MASS OF RETAIL TRADERS LONG LIST OF INDICATORS AVAILABLE OVERWHELM THIS LEADS TO INDICATOR FAILURE AND CAPITAL EROSION HOW TO AVOID THIS AND USE FOR ADVANTAGE? INDICATORS FOR TRENDING MARKETS LIKE MOVING AVERAGES AND THEN INDICATORS FOR NON TRENDING MARKETS SUCH AS OSCILLATORS ARE NOW OUTDATED

  23. MOMENTUM – DEFINITION VELOCITY OF A PRICE TREND ACCELERATION OR DEACCELERATION MOMENTUM A MISNOMER, AS IT’S A GENERIC TERM A FLUCTUATING LINE THAT IS CONTINUALLY OSCILLATING FROM ONE EXTREME TO ANOTHER ALL MOMENTUM INDICATORS OSCILLATE SO WE CAN CALL THEM OSCILLATORS OSCILLATION OF EMOTIONS AND PSYCHOLOGY – GREED TO FEAR, HOPE TO DESPAIR JUXTAPOSE SENTIMENT INDICATOR WITH MOMENTUM SHOWS SIMILARITY MOMENTUM ANOTHER WAY TO LOOK AT MARKET SENTIMENT TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IS THE ART OF IDENTIFYING TREND REVERSALS AT A RELATIVELY EARLY STAGE AND RIDING THAT REVERSE TREND UNTIL THE WEIGHT OF EVIDENCE PROVES OTHERWISE

  24. CONSENSUS INDEX OF BULLISH MARKET OPINION

  25. BASIC MOMENTUM RULES 1: THE OSCILLATOR IS MOST USEFUL WHEN IT REACHES AN EXTREME READING – OVERBOUGHT/OVERSOLD

  26. -29% 512% -31% 145% -31% 73%

  27. BASIC MOMENTUM RULES 2: DIVERGENCE BETWEEN OSCILLATOR AND PRICE WHEN OSCILLATOR IS AN EXTREME – IMPORTANT WARNING

  28. -26%

  29. BASIC MOMENTUM RULES 3.THE CROSSING OF THE ZERO LINE (MID POINT) CAN GIVE IMPORTANT TRADING SIGNALS IN TREND DIRECTION +52%

  30. +32%

  31. +19%

  32. TLV.ZILNIC CHARACTERISTICS KEEP IN MIND THE TYPE OF TREND YOU ARE ANALYSING OIL TANKER VS SPORTS CAR LONGER TERM MOMENTUM HAS MORE SIGNIFICANCE THAN SHORT TERM MOMENTUM INTERMEDIATE TREND REMAINS KEY FOR TRADING/ INVESTMENT UNDERSTANDING TREND DURATION REMAINS KEY SHORT TERM MOMENTUM OVER LONG TERM MOMENTUM MARK EXTREMES TLV.SAPTAMANAL

  33. CHARACTERISTICS AND MAGNITUDE OF AN OSCILLATOR SWING DEPENDS ON A: NATURE OF THE FORMULA B: THE VOLATILITY OF THE SECURITY BEING MONITORED C: THE TIME SPAND BEING USED EXAMPLE: NOT POSSIBLE TO COMPARE OSCILLATOR OF A DOCILE UTILITY STOCK WITH A MINING STOCK EARNINGS OF MINING COMPANY MORE TOUGH TO PREDICT UNDERLYING VOLATILITY HIGHER IN MINING COMPANIES INVESTOR PROFILE MORE STABLE FOR UTILITY COMPANY THAN FOR MINING COMPANY TEL.ZILNIC ALRO.ZILNIC

  34. CHARACTERISTICS OSCILLATORS MOVING IN THE DIRECTION OF THE TRENDS TEND TO COVER LONGER DISTANCE THAN OTHERWISE MEGAOVERBOUGHT CONDITIONS EARLY SIGN OF A BULLISH TREND ONLY TIME TO OPEN LONG POSITION DESPITE OVERBOUGHT CONDITION AND VICE VERSA POLICOLOR.LUNAR OLT.LUNAR PETROM.WEEKLY BETFI.WEEKLY

  35. CHARACTERISTICS PRICE AND INDICATOR - IN GEAR AND OUT OF GEAR DEFINES DIVERGENCE MARKETS SPEND MOST OF THEIR TIME ADVANCING RATHER THAN DECLINING LEAD CHARACTERSTICS MORE PRONOUNCES AT MARKET PEAKS THAN TROUGHS “MARKETS ARE LIKE HOUSES, THEY TAKE LONGER TO BUILD THAN THEY DO TO TEAR DOWN” – MARTIN PRING +130% AZO.LUNAR

  36. CHARACTERISTICS DIVERGENCE WITHOUT PRICE CONFIRMATION DOES NOT MEAN ANYTHING PRICE AND MOMENTUM DYNAMICS. UP/DOWN, DOWN/UP SOCP.WEEKLY

  37. CHARACTERISTICS GREATER THE NUMBER OF DIVERGENCES THE MORE SERIOUS THE CONSEQUENCES OF A REVERSAL TLV.WEEKLY

  38. CHARACTERISTICS DIVERGENCE SIGNIFICANCE. NUMBER TIME SPAN BETWEEN THEM CLOSENESS TO EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL EXAMPLE OF A CAR OR A SICK PERSON GREATER THE SEPERATION TIME, GREATER THE SIGNIFICANCE TLV.MONTHLY TLV.WEEKLY ?

  39. CHARACTERISTICS THE DIVERGENCE TRAP FINAL BURST UP WITH UNANTICIPATED NEWS THAT EVEN CAUSES SHORT COVERING RRC.DAILY

  40. INTERPRETATION – SIGNALS TRENDLINES WORK ON MOMENTUM TOO SIMULTANEOUS BREAKOUTS ARE VERY EFFECTIVE, GENERALLY SEPERATE LENGTH/NUMBER OF TIMES/ANGLE EXTENDED TRENDLINE RETEST 42% -18% -36% SIF5.WEEKLY

More Related