1 / 38

HYDROLOGICAL METHODS IN INTEGRATED WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT

HYDROLOGICAL METHODS IN INTEGRATED WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT Presentation at the 5th International Symposium on Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) and 3rd International Symposium on Methodology in Hydrology in Nanjing, P.R. China, 19th November 2010. Prof. Dr. Andreas H. Schumann

huela
Download Presentation

HYDROLOGICAL METHODS IN INTEGRATED WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. HYDROLOGICAL METHODS IN INTEGRATED WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT Presentation at the 5th International Symposium on Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) and 3rd International Symposium on Methodology in Hydrology in Nanjing, P.R. China, 19th November 2010 Prof. Dr. Andreas H. Schumann Institute of Hydrology , Water Management and Environmental Engineering

  2. Institute of Hydrology , Water Management and Environmental Engineering Professor Dr. Andreas Schumann Content • Development of requirements for applied hydrology • Integration of spatial and temporal scales in holistic approaches • Two-way coupling of hydrology and water management • Multiple changes and uncertainties • Consideration of uncertainties in water resources management • Summary 5th International Symposium on Integrated Water Resources Management | Nanjing, P.R. China | 19-20 November 2010

  3. Institute of Hydrology, Water Management and Environmental Engineering Professor Dr. Andreas H. Schumann Development of applications of hydrology in Water Resources Management • Exploration and Exploitation of water resources for economic activities, • Scale: single water utilisations at the point scale (e.g. reservoirs) • Pressure of competing water users: Optimisation of water uses with dominating economic criteria •  Scale: planning areas • New requirements for unification of utilisation and protection of water resources, Demand for integrity of water related ecosystem services and sustainability of water management •  Scale: river basins • Analysis and control of ecosystem services under consideration of natural and anthropogenic changes of hydrological conditions •  Scale: hydrological systems (Interactions of atmosphere, landscapes and oceans) 5th International Symposium on Integrated Water Resources Management | Nanjing, P.R. China | 19-20 November 2010

  4. Institute of Hydrology, Water Management and Environmental Engineering Professor Dr. Andreas Schumann CONSTITUENTS OF WELL-BEING ECOSYSTEM SERVICES • Security • PERSONAL SAFETY • SECURE RESOURCE ACCESS • SECURITY FROM DISASTERS Freedom ofchoice andaction OPPORTUNITY TO BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE WHAT AN INDIVIDUAL VALUES DOING AND BEING • Supporting • NUTRIENT CYCLING • SOIL FORMATION • PRIMARY PRODUCTION • … • Provisioning • FOOD • FRESH WATER • WOOD AND FIBER • FUEL • … • Basic material • for goodlife • ADEQUATE LIVELIHOODS • SUFFICIENT NUTRITIOUS FOOD • SHELTER • ACCESS TO GOODS • Regulating • CLIMATE REGULATION • FLOOD REGULATION • DISEASE REGULATION • WATER PURIFICATION • … • Health • STRENGTH • FEELING WELL • ACCESS TO CLEAN AIR • ..AND WATER • Cultural • AESTHETIC • SPIRITUAL • EDUCATIONAL • RECREATIONAL • … • Goodsocialrelations • SOCIAL COHESION • MUTUAL RESPECT • ABILITY TO HELP OTHERS LIFE ON EARTH - BIODIVERSITY Weak High ARROW´S COLOR Potential formediationby Socioeconomicfactors ARROW´S WIDTH Intensityoflinkagesbetweeneosystemservicesand human well-being Medium Medium Low Strong 5th International Symposium on Integrated Water Resources Management | Nanjing, P.R. China | 19-20 November 2010

  5. Institute of Hydrology, Water Management and Environmental Engineering Professor Dr. Andreas Schumann 5th International Symposium on Integrated Water Resources Management | Nanjing, P.R. China | 19-20 November 2010

  6. Institute of Hydrology, Water Management and Environmental Engineering Professor Dr. Andreas Schumann Example: German- Chinese research project Sustainable Water Ressources Management in a coastal region of the province Shandong (山東, 龍口 ) Problems: Intensive agricultural irrigation High degree of groundwater utilization Intrusion of seawater 5th International Symposium on Integrated Water Resources Management | Nanjing, P.R. China | 19-20 November 2010

  7. Institute of Hydrology, Water Management and Environmental Engineering Professor Dr. Andreas Schumann Ongoing changes of precipitation since 1960 Changesofprecipitation in China 1960 – 2006 (Piao et al., 2010) 5th International Symposium on Integrated Water Resources Management | Nanjing, P.R. China | 19-20 November 2010

  8. Institute of Hydrology, Water Management and Environmental Engineering Professor Dr. Andreas Schumann Methodical approach Two- way coupling: Water use depending on hydrological conditions and changes of hydrological conditions by water uses (Falkenmark & Rockström, 2006) 5th International Symposium on Integrated Water Resources Management | Nanjing, P.R. China | 19-20 November 2010

  9. Institute of Hydrology, Water Management and Environmental Engineering Professor Dr. Andreas Schumann Water balance with 658 mm yearly precipitation 64 Mio m3yearly groundwater recharge 5th International Symposium on Integrated Water Resources Management | Nanjing, P.R. China | 19-20 November 2010

  10. Institute of Hydrology, Water Management and Environmental Engineering Professor Dr. Andreas Schumann Water balance with 538 mm yearly precipitation -21Mio m3yearly groundwater recharge 5th International Symposium on Integrated Water Resources Management | Nanjing, P.R. China | 19-20 November 2010

  11. Institute of Hydrology, Water Management and Environmental Engineering Professor Dr. Andreas Schumann Water balance with 430 mm yearly precipitation -115 Mio m3yearly groundwater recharge 5th International Symposium on Integrated Water Resources Management | Nanjing, P.R. China | 19-20 November 2010

  12. Institute of Hydrology, Water Management and Environmental Engineering Professor Dr. Andreas Schumann Options for changes of anthropogenic impacts -115 Mio m3yearly groundwater recharge Desalination ofseawater Watertransferfrom Southern China 5th International Symposium on Integrated Water Resources Management | Nanjing, P.R. China | 19-20 November 2010

  13. Institute of Hydrology, Water Management and Environmental Engineering Professor Dr. Andreas Schumann 5th International Symposium on Integrated Water Resources Management | Nanjing, P.R. China | 19-20 November 2010

  14. Institute of Hydrology, Water Management and Environmental Engineering Professor Dr. Andreas Schumann Sustainable groundwater recharge • Cumulated • groundwaterdeficit ? • Missing Data • Inversion ofseawaterintrusion • Detailedhydrological • modelling Yearlygroundwaterdeficit/ surplus Yearlywaterdemandofagriculture in mio m3 (Devlin & Sophocleous, 2004) 5th International Symposium on Integrated Water Resources Management | Nanjing, P.R. China | 19-20 November 2010

  15. Institute of Hydrology, Water Management and Environmental Engineering Professor Dr. Andreas Schumann Complexityoffuturewaterdemand Hydrologyand Water Management Economy, Sociology, Political Science Economy, Sociology, Political Science Hydrologyand Water Management 5th International Symposium on Integrated Water Resources Management | Nanjing, P.R. China | 19-20 November 2010

  16. Institute of Hydrology, Water Management and Environmental Engineering Professor Dr. Andreas Schumann Global change - uncertainties are an essential component of planning • Global Change • demography • economy • socialchanges • politicalchanges • newtechnologies • Climatechange Future risks Reaction of hydrologicalsystems in future? Impacts on ecosystemservices? Howto handle uncertainties of futuredevelopments in todaysplanning? World Water Development Report (2009) 5th International Symposium on Integrated Water Resources Management | Nanjing, P.R. China | 19-20 November 2010

  17. Institute of Hydrology, Water Management and Environmental Engineering Professor Dr. Andreas Schumann 5th International Symposium on Integrated Water Resources Management | Nanjing, P.R. China | 19-20 November 2010

  18. Institute of Hydrology, Water Management and Environmental Engineering Professor Dr. Andreas Schumann Example 1: Estimation of Uncertaities Climate change study for the Upper Danube Changes of Precipitation Changes of Temperature 5th International Symposium on Integrated Water Resources Management | Nanjing, P.R. China | 19-20 November 2010

  19. Institute of Hydrology, Water Management and Environmental Engineering Professor Dr. Andreas Schumann Multiple Information results in a large number of scenarios • 7 different GCM‘s • + 8 different runs of the UK- Model HadCM2 • 14 different Climate Scenarios • (each one has the same probabilty) • Different assumptions about Global Climate Sensitivity • Between 1.5°C and 4.5°C increase of global mean temperature under CO2-doubling conditions (triangular- distributed, Probability Maximum for 3°C) • Different Emission Scenarios of Greenhouse Gases • SRES- Scenarios for 4 different pathways of future socio-economic developments (each one has the same probability) • Natural ClimateVariability(„Noise“) Results: 25.000 Monte- Carlo- Simulations 5th International Symposium on Integrated Water Resources Management | Nanjing, P.R. China | 19-20 November 2010

  20. Institute of Hydrology, Water Management and Environmental Engineering Professor Dr. Andreas Schumann Monte- Carlo- SimulationsofClimate Change Scenarios 5th International Symposium on Integrated Water Resources Management | Nanjing, P.R. China | 19-20 November 2010

  21. Institute of Hydrology, Water Management and Environmental Engineering Professor Dr. Andreas Schumann Changes in Runoff for the Winter and Summer Season; differentiated by GCMs 5th International Symposium on Integrated Water Resources Management | Nanjing, P.R. China | 19-20 November 2010

  22. Institute of Hydrology, Water Management and Environmental Engineering Professor Dr. Andreas Schumann Spread of meanmonthlyrunoffchangesofthe Rhine riverbetween 2021 and 2050 (Krahe et al. 2010) 5th International Symposium on Integrated Water Resources Management | Nanjing, P.R. China | 19-20 November 2010

  23. Institute of Hydrology, Water Management and Environmental Engineering Professor Dr. Andreas Schumann Probability of A Probability of B Belief andplausibilityinsteadofprobabilities Hypothesis A Hypothesis B Belief of A Plausibility is the probability that A is compatible with the available evidence (cannotbedisproved) Belief in B Hypothesis A uncertain Hypothesis B Plausibility of B Belief of A is the probability that A is provable (supported) by the evidence. 5th International Symposium on Integrated Water Resources Management | Nanjing, P.R. China | 19-20 November 2010

  24. Institute of Hydrology, Water Management and Environmental Engineering Professor Dr. Andreas Schumann Germany Example 2: Considering complex flood risks in planning of flood retention systems

  25. Institute of Hydrology, Water Management and Environmental Engineering Professor Dr. Andreas Schumann Hydrological Risk of flood protection by technical retention No flood protection Flood protection by technical retention facilities depends on characteristics of events! Full flood protection

  26. Institute of Hydrology, Water Management and Environmental Engineering Professor Dr. Andreas Schumann Floodscenarios: Coupling a stochasticgeneratorofprecipitationfields(Bárdossy & Plate (1992)) with a hydrological model • Mixed Distribution: • Gamma-DF for small values, • Generalized Pareto- DF for high values 122 gaugesprecipitation Simulation of 10 times 1.000 yearsrunoff (dailyvalues)

  27. Institute of Hydrology, Water Management and Environmental Engineering Professor Dr. Andreas Schumann Simulation ofwatermanagementsystemswith different planningstages Floodstatistics, derivedfromobservedandsimulateddata peak volume

  28. Institute of Hydrology, Water Management and Environmental Engineering Professor Dr. Andreas Schumann Impact analysis Coupled 1D- 2D- Model implicid 4-point discretisationscheme

  29. Institute of Hydrology, Water Management and Environmental Engineering Professor Dr. Andreas Schumann Bivariate Analysis: Flood Peak-Volume at dam sites 5th International Symposium on Integrated Water Resources Management | Nanjing, P.R. China | 19-20 November 2010

  30. Institute of Hydrology, Water Management and Environmental Engineering Professor Dr. Andreas Schumann Hydrological Scenarios T=25 years T=50 years T=100 years T=200 years T=500 years T=1000 years 5th International Symposium on Integrated Water Resources Management | Nanjing, P.R. China | 19-20 November 2010

  31. Institute of Hydrology, Water Management and Environmental Engineering Professor Dr. Andreas Schumann T Peak Comparedwithstatisticsfromobserveddata Derivedfromcoupledmodels: „Impreciseprobabilities“ Copula- T(Peak and Volume) Reservoir Straussfurt Copula- T T(Peak or Volume) Reservoir Straussfurt Copula- T(Peak and Volume Reservoir Kelbra) Copula- T(Peak or Volume Reservoir Kelbra) Copula- T(Peak KelbraandStraussfurt) Copula- T(Peak KelbraorStraussfurt) 5th International Symposium on Integrated Water Resources Management | Nanjing, P.R. China | 19-20 November 2010

  32. Institute of Hydrology, Water Management and Environmental Engineering Professor Dr. Andreas Schumann Plausibilityofscenarios 5th International Symposium on Integrated Water Resources Management | Nanjing, P.R. China | 19-20 November 2010

  33. Institute of Hydrology, Water Management and Environmental Engineering Professor Dr. Andreas Schumann AHP: Analytical Hierarchic Programming weights Hierarchic structure of the F-AHP approach weights weights weights 5th International Symposium on Integrated Water Resources Management | Nanjing, P.R. China | 19-20 November 2010

  34. Institute of Hydrology, Water Management and Environmental Engineering Professor Dr. Andreas Schumann Fuzzy- AHP Membership Fuzzyfied Matrix ofthe relative importanceofthecriteriafordesicionmakers 1 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9  = m u Performance index l Comparisonof alternatives withseveralcriteria 5th International Symposium on Integrated Water Resources Management | Nanjing, P.R. China | 19-20 November 2010

  35. Institute of Hydrology, Water Management and Environmental Engineering Professor Dr. Andreas Schumann De-Fuzzyfication m Membership 1 u 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Low High Pessimism/ Optimism-Index =1 optimistic, upper bound of performance =0 pessimistic, lower bound of performance Impact of the parameter  on defuzzification of the results of FAHP Performance 5th International Symposium on Integrated Water Resources Management | Nanjing, P.R. China | 19-20 November 2010

  36. Institute of Hydrology, Water Management and Environmental Engineering Professor Dr. Andreas Schumann 5th International Symposium on Integrated Water Resources Management | Nanjing, P.R. China | 19-20 November 2010

  37. Institute of Hydrology, Water Management and Environmental Engineering Professor Dr. Andreas Schumann Summary • Changingdemandforhydrologicalinformation: • IWRM demandsconsiderationofecosystemservices • 2. Interactions betweenwateruseandhydrologicalconditions: • Two- waycouplingofwateruseandhydrologicalconditions • 3. Sustainabilitydemandslong-termassessmentsofunknownfutureconditions • Characterisationandhandlingofuncertaities 5th International Symposium on Integrated Water Resources Management | Nanjing, P.R. China | 19-20 November 2010

  38. Bertrand Russel(1926): “All knowledge is more or less uncertain and more or less vague: These are, in a sense, opposing characters: vague knowledge has more likelihood of truth than precise knowledge, but is less useful.” Key question: How can knowledge about uncertainty be handled by end-users ? Summary Institute of Hydrology, Water Management and Environmental Engineering Professor Dr. Andreas Schumann Thank you very much for your attention ! 5th International Symposium on Integrated Water Resources Management | Nanjing, P.R. China | 19-20 November 2010

More Related