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Preliminary Results from EnSRF data Assimilations and Forecasts of the 24 May 2011 Event

Preliminary Results from EnSRF data Assimilations and Forecasts of the 24 May 2011 Event. Tim Supinie, Youngsun Jung, Ming Xue Warn-on-Forecast Workshop 2 April 2014. Experiment Configuration. Domain Outline. Methods and Knob Settings. ARPS 300 × 300 × 51 3 km grid spacing

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Preliminary Results from EnSRF data Assimilations and Forecasts of the 24 May 2011 Event

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  1. Preliminary Results from EnSRF data Assimilations and Forecasts of the 24 May 2011 Event Tim Supinie, Youngsun Jung, Ming Xue Warn-on-Forecast Workshop 2 April 2014

  2. Experiment Configuration Domain Outline Methods and Knob Settings • ARPS • 300×300×51 • 3 km grid spacing • NAM IC/BC • Milbrandt-Yau 2-moment MP • 3D Ensemble Square-Root Filter • 40-member ensemble • 6 km localization radius • 5 dBZ, 3 m s-1obs. errors • Multiplicative (1.2) and RTPS (0.9) covariance inflation Terrain Height (m)

  3. Experiment timeline and data • Surface data: ASOS (1-minute), AWOS (20-minute), OK Mesonet (5-minute) • Sounding data: ARM (3-hourly) • WSR-88D: 17 Radars, including KTLX, KFDR, and KVNX

  4. 1 km AGL Reflectivity (Analyses) Reflectivity (dBZ)

  5. 1 km AGL Reflectivity (2100 UTC Forecast) Reflectivity (dBZ)

  6. Updraft Helicity (1930-2030 UTC Forecast) 2047 UTC 2020 UTC P(UH > 50 m2 s-2) 2031 UTC

  7. Updraft Helicity (2000-2100 UTC Forecast) 2047 UTC 2020 UTC 2050 UTC P(UH > 50 m2 s-2) 2046 UTC 2031 UTC

  8. Updraft Helicity (2100-2200 UTC Forecast) 2235 UTC 2226 UTC 2050 UTC P(UH > 50 m2 s-2) 2206 UTC

  9. Equitable Threat Score (ETS) 1930 UTC FCST 2000 UTC FCST • P(Z > 40 dBZ) > 0.5 from ensemble • Z > 40 dBZ from WSR-88Ds • Full volume scans (9-14 tilts) 2100 UTC FCST

  10. Contingency Table Visualization

  11. (Preliminary) Conclusions • NEP Updraft Helicity swaths line up with observed tornadoes • Reasonably Well: Canton Lake Tornado • Okay: El Reno EF5 (UH swath deviates left) • Poorly: Goldsby Tornado (1 hour too early) • ETS drops off quickly after initialization • Model wants to move storms too quickly (closer to LCL-EL mean wind) • Unresolved supercell dynamic pressure perturbations?

  12. Future Work • 4D EnSRF (Wang et al. 2013) • 500 m simulations • Improved track forecasts? • Sounding data partitioning • Sources of vertical vorticity for the forecasts Questions?

  13. Updraft Helicity Tracks • Integrated from 0-3 km • Neighborhood Ensemble Probability • 7.5 km neighborhood Schwartz et al. (2010), Fig. 8

  14. 2100 UTC hodographs 1-10 km MSL Mean Wind (Advective) Observed Storm Motion Ensemble Mean Storm Motion

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