Developing Ninth Grade Early Warning Systems to Identify Students At-Risk for Dropping Out of High School

1. Developing Ninth Grade Early Warning Systems to Identify Students At-Risk for Dropping Out of High School Jessica Heppen, Ph.D. Mindee O�Cummings, Ph.D. National High School Center CHECK THE TITLE�CHECK THE TITLE�

2. This Presentation Overview of early warning systems to identify potential high school dropouts Background on academic indicators of high school dropout Lessons from research on �high yield� academic indicators Building early warning systems in schools Demonstration of data tool Review of best practices in research-based dropout prevention interventions will provide an overview of early warning systems to identify potential high school dropouts along with best practices in research-based preventive interventions will provide an overview of early warning systems to identify potential high school dropouts along with best practices in research-based preventive interventions

3. Network of Regional Comprehensive Centers and Content Centers Our mission� Serve as the central source of research and information on high school improvement for the Regional Comprehensive Centers Identify, summarize and disseminate information on: useful programs, tools, and products latest research and innovations Provide high-quality technical assistance relating to high schools and their diverse student populations Build capacity of RCCs and SEAs to promote and support high school improvement at all levels Our mission� Serve as the central source of research and information on high school improvement for the Regional Comprehensive Centers Identify, summarize and disseminate information on: useful programs, tools, and products latest research and innovations Provide high-quality technical assistance relating to high schools and their diverse student populations Build capacity of RCCs and SEAs to promote and support high school improvement at all levels

4. Some Sobering Statistics� 1.2 million students drop out of high school each year � that�s 12 million over the next decade 7,000 students drop out of high school every day 15% of the high schools in the U.S. produce 50% of our dropouts � schools Balfanz and Legters call �dropout factories� Most of the students who dropout are from a very small number of schools � Chris Swanson�s work� Who attends dropout factories? Disproportionately it is low income and minority students in major cities. 84% of Minority Students in Major Cities attended �dropout factories� where less than 60% of 9th graders make it to 12th grade (Balfanz) Most of the students who dropout are from a very small number of schools � Chris Swanson�s work� Who attends dropout factories? Disproportionately it is low income and minority students in major cities. 84% of Minority Students in Major Cities attended �dropout factories� where less than 60% of 9th graders make it to 12th grade (Balfanz)

5. Economic Consequences of Dropping Out A new high school dropout in 2000 had less than a 50% chance of getting a job That job earned less than half of what the same job earned 20 years ago Lack of education is strongly correlated with welfare dependency and incarceration Cutting the number of dropouts in half would reap $45 billion in revenues and decreased costs According to Russell Rumberger, dropout prevention researcher at UCSB, a single cohort of 600,000 dropouts costs $158 billion in forgone income and $58 billion in lost federal and state income taxes. Recent studies by Henry Levin find that our nation could recoup $45 billion in lost tax revenues and costs of public health, crime and justice, and in welfare payments if we cut the number of high school dropouts in half (Levin et al., 2007)According to Russell Rumberger, dropout prevention researcher at UCSB, a single cohort of 600,000 dropouts costs $158 billion in forgone income and $58 billion in lost federal and state income taxes. Recent studies by Henry Levin find that our nation could recoup $45 billion in lost tax revenues and costs of public health, crime and justice, and in welfare payments if we cut the number of high school dropouts in half (Levin et al., 2007)

6. Ninth Grade is a Critical Year Ninth grade is a �make or break year� More students fail 9th grade than any other grade in high school A disproportionate number of students who are held back in 9th grade subsequently drop out By the end of the ninth grade year or even during the first semester, powerful indicators exist that can predict whether students will complete high school Engagement Course performance

7. What are the Key 9th Grade Indicators? Course Performance Course performance Number of credits earned �On-track� Indicator Core course performance & accumulated credits

8. �High-Yield� Academic Indicators:  Attendance

9. �High-Yield� Academic Indicators:  Course Failures

10. �High-Yield� Academic Indicators:  GPA

11. Chicago�s �On-track� Indicator Absence rates and course performance alone provide good information about whether students are on a path toward graduation. The �On-track� Indicator is a compound measure of grades in core academic courses and credit accumulation in ninth grade. �On-track� = no more than one semester F in core courses and sufficient credits for promotion to tenth grade �Off-track� = two or more semester Fs in core courses or lack of enough credits for promotion to tenth grade In short, this means that during their freshman year, students must have no more than one semester F and no fewer than the number of credits required to be promoted to tenth grade. Since the total number of credits or Carnegie units required for promotion varies among schools and districts, each high school or district must identify the appropriate credit accumulation benchmark. Students identified as off-track at the end of their first year of high school should be considered at risk for dropping out of high school and should be targeted for intervention. In short, this means that during their freshman year, students must have no more than one semester F and no fewer than the number of credits required to be promoted to tenth grade. Since the total number of credits or Carnegie units required for promotion varies among schools and districts, each high school or district must identify the appropriate credit accumulation benchmark. Students identified as off-track at the end of their first year of high school should be considered at risk for dropping out of high school and should be targeted for intervention.

12. Calculating the �On-Track� Indicator

13. �High-Yield� Indicator: On-Track �The research shows that this is a more powerful indicator of whether students will graduate in 4 or 5 years than prior achievement. �The research shows that this is a more powerful indicator of whether students will graduate in 4 or 5 years than prior achievement.

14. �High-Yield� Indicators� �On-Track� Indicator I AM NOT SURE ABOUT THE SLIDE TITLE� The strong relationship between ontrack & graduation holds no matter what school the student goes to, what their incoming achievement was, their race or their gender. Freshman year course performance is important for everyone. I AM NOT SURE ABOUT THE SLIDE TITLE� The strong relationship between ontrack & graduation holds no matter what school the student goes to, what their incoming achievement was, their race or their gender. Freshman year course performance is important for everyone.

15. �High Yield� 9th Grade Indicators

16. Lessons from Research on Factors Associated With Dropping Out These academic indicators are based on readily-available data at the school and district levels These indicators do not provide insight into root causes of dropping out such as Individual predictors: gender, race/ethnicity, immigration status, disabilities, abuse and neglect Attitudinal and behavioral predictors: mobility, misbehavior, low educational aspirations Family and community predictors: family structure (SES, single-parent), parent involvement in learning Nor do these indicators provide insight into school factors such as social composition, size, teacher quality, academic and social climate including school safety Sources of information on root causes of dropout include � RE: Disabilities: Students with emotional and behavioral problems and disorders drop out of school at a disproportionately higher rate than their peers (Armstrong, Dedrick, & Greenbaum, 2003; Osher & Hanley, 1995; Vander Stoep, Weiss, Kuo, Cheney, & Cohen, 2003). RE: Abuse and Neglect: About 70% of the students who had a substantiated case of abuse or neglect during hgih school, who had a foster care placement, or who had given birth within four years of starting high school dropped out in Philadelphia (Neild & Balfanz, 2006) �So while the focus of the academic indicators as early warning signs that individual students may be at risk for dropping out. the school predictors are highly related to the conditions inside the dropout factories and the warning signs that the schools themselves are ineffective. Osher et al� �From Osher et al. (XXXX) - Our experience suggests that signs of unsafe and ineffective schools include lack of agreement among staff about school policies and practices for learning and behavior; lack of training and support for implementing policies and practices; poor staff morale; disrespectful treatment of students; and disrespect between students characterized by bullying, isolation, fighting, and teasing. A host of research studies show that students are less likely to drop out of safe schools (Bekuis, 1995; Bryk & Thum, 1989; Greenberg, Skidmore, & Rhodes, 2004; Osher, Dwyer, & Jimerson, 2005) Sources of information on root causes of dropout include � RE: Disabilities: Students with emotional and behavioral problems and disorders drop out of school at a disproportionately higher rate than their peers (Armstrong, Dedrick, & Greenbaum, 2003; Osher & Hanley, 1995; Vander Stoep, Weiss, Kuo, Cheney, & Cohen, 2003). RE: Abuse and Neglect: About 70% of the students who had a substantiated case of abuse or neglect during hgih school, who had a foster care placement, or who had given birth within four years of starting high school dropped out in Philadelphia (Neild & Balfanz, 2006) �So while the focus of the academic indicators as early warning signs that individual students may be at risk for dropping out. the school predictors are highly related to the conditions inside the dropout factories and the warning signs that the schools themselves are ineffective. Osher et al� �From Osher et al. (XXXX) - Our experience suggests that signs of unsafe and ineffective schools include lack of agreement among staff about school policies and practices for learning and behavior; lack of training and support for implementing policies and practices; poor staff morale; disrespectful treatment of students; and disrespect between students characterized by bullying, isolation, fighting, and teasing. A host of research studies show that students are less likely to drop out of safe schools (Bekuis, 1995; Bryk & Thum, 1989; Greenberg, Skidmore, & Rhodes, 2004; Osher, Dwyer, & Jimerson, 2005)

17. Earlier Indicators Focus is on high schools but there is evidence that student performance in reading and attendance as early as third grade predicts dropout Research around the country demonstrates the following school-related indicators are predictive of dropping out of high school: Earning an F in English or math during 6th or 8th grade Low grades or attendance in 4th grade Retention in any grade during grades K-8 Earning a failing mark for class behavior in middle school Significant drop in attendance beginning in 6th grade Table 2 summarizes the indicators for grades 6�9, as identified in research studies conducted in the Philadelphia Public Schools and the Fall River, Massachusetts, Public Schools (Neild, Stoner-Eby, & Furstenburg, 2001; Neild & Farley, 2004; Neild & Balfanz, 2006; Balfanz & Herzog, 2005; Roderick, 1993). 6th graders in Philadelphia with poor attendance (less than 80%), a failing mark for classroom behavior, a failing grade in math or English had only a 10% chance of graduating within four years of entering high school and only a 20% chance of graduating within 5 years (Balfanz & Herzog, 2005) Though we focus on high schools, adolescence itself is a major risk factor and middle school is an important point for intervention.Table 2 summarizes the indicators for grades 6�9, as identified in research studies conducted in the Philadelphia Public Schools and the Fall River, Massachusetts, Public Schools (Neild, Stoner-Eby, & Furstenburg, 2001; Neild & Farley, 2004; Neild & Balfanz, 2006; Balfanz & Herzog, 2005; Roderick, 1993). 6th graders in Philadelphia with poor attendance (less than 80%), a failing mark for classroom behavior, a failing grade in math or English had only a 10% chance of graduating within four years of entering high school and only a 20% chance of graduating within 5 years (Balfanz & Herzog, 2005) Though we focus on high schools, adolescence itself is a major risk factor and middle school is an important point for intervention.

18. Building Early Warning Systems in High Schools Demonstration of simple tool designed to help high schools use data they already have for dropout prevention http://www.betterhighschools.org/pubs/ews_guide.asp http://www.betterhighschools.org/pubs/EWStool.xls Roles of the district and state WHERE DO WE WANT THIS NOW? WHERE DO WE WANT THIS NOW?

21. Student info

22. Semester one

23. Semester one

24. Semester one

25. Student report

26. Dropout Prevention Strategies Focus on achievement in core courses Content recovery courses Tiered approaches Tutoring as an academic support Attendance and behavior monitors Advisories and team teaching Counseling and mentoring Small learning communities and school within a school for greater personalization Partnerships between high schools and feeder middle schools Ninth grade transition programs Support for students with disabilities outside of school Career and college awareness Family engagement Community engagement Student engagement is the key factorStudent engagement is the key factor

27. Additional Best Practices in Dropout Prevention While not exhaustive, some other strategies for preventing dropout include: Alternative Schooling After School Opportunities Early Childhood Education Early Literacy Development Educational Technology Extended Learning Time Professional Development Rigor including supports to help students stay on-track for graduation Safe Learning Environments School Climate Systemic Renewal Teacher Quality Wrap Around Services Mindee Report out of strategies from pairs Louise These are all gleaned from the 15 strategies on the National Dropout Prevention Center/Network�s website (strategies that were not already mentioned in the presentation) A continuing process of evaluating goals and objectives related to school policies, practices, and organizational structures as they impact a diverse group of learners. A comprehensive violence prevention plan, including conflict resolution, must deal with potential violence as well as crisis management. A safe learning environment provides daily experiences, at all grade levels, that enhance positive social attitudes and effective interpersonal skills in all students. Mindee Report out of strategies from pairs Louise These are all gleaned from the 15 strategies on the National Dropout Prevention Center/Network�s website (strategies that were not already mentioned in the presentation) A continuing process of evaluating goals and objectives related to school policies, practices, and organizational structures as they impact a diverse group of learners. A comprehensive violence prevention plan, including conflict resolution, must deal with potential violence as well as crisis management. A safe learning environment provides daily experiences, at all grade levels, that enhance positive social attitudes and effective interpersonal skills in all students.

28. For more information from the National High School Center on Drop Out Prevention and Increasing Graduation Rates: http://www.betterhighschools.org/topics/DropoutPrevention.asp