History of Weather Forecasting

1. History of Weather Forecasting By: Matt Malendo

2. The art of weather forecasting began with early civilizations using reoccurring astronomical and meteorological events to help them monitor seasonal changes in the weather. Early History

3. Around 650 B.C., the Babylonians tried to predict short-term weather changes based on the appearance of clouds and optical phenomena such as haloes.

4. Cumulus Clouds- billowy individual cloud masses that often have flat bases. • Cirrus Clouds-thin, delicate, ice crystal clouds, appearing as veil-like patches. • Stratus Clouds- sheets or layers that cover much or all of the sky.

6. By 300 B.C., Chinese astronomers had developed a calendar that divided the year into 24 festivals, each festival associated with a different type of weather.

7. It was not until the invention of the electric telegraph in 1835 the the modern age of weather forecasting began. By the late 1840s, the telegraph allowed reports of weather conditions from a wide area to be received almost instantaneously, allowing forecasts to be made from knowledge of weather conditions further upwind.

8. Around 340 B.C., the Greek philosopher Aristotle wrote Meteorologica, a philosophical treatise that included theories about the formation of rain, clouds, hail, wind, thunder, lightning, and hurricanes. In addition, topics such as astronomy, geography, and chemistry were also addressed.

9. Unit 8: Impact of Weather on the Biosphere By: Kim Nejati

10. KS: • What is a tropical climate?

11. Answer! • A non- arid climate having an average temperature of 18 degrees Celcius

12. Types of Tropical Climates: • Rainforest- also known as equatorial climate, has no dry seasons and all months have at least 2.36 inches of rainfall. They have no summer or winter and is typically humid throughout the year. Vegetation here is caused by the high temperatures and year round rainfall. • ***10% of earth’s land is characterized as a rainforest tropical climate***

13. Monsoon- Relatively rare type of climate with an average temperature of 18 degrees Celsius every month. Commonly found in south and central america • Major factor of a tropical monsoon climate is the relationship to the monsoon circulation which is a seasonal change in wind direction. • ***know this: Fronts are lines that form the boundary between two air masses.

14. Savanna- average temperature of 18 degrees celsius, with the driest month having less than 2.36 inches of rainfall. Places that feature savanna climates are the Colombia-Panama border. There are 4 versions of the savanna climate : • 1st version: distinct wet & dry season of equal duration • 2nd: lengthy dry season and short wet season, this version features 7 or more dry months and 5 or less wet months • 3rd: lengthy wet season and short dry season • 4th: rarest of versions with a noticeable amount of rainfall and mimics the monsoon climate

15. Locations of Tropical Climates:

16. Storms caused by tropical climates: • Hurricanes- intense cyclonic circulations

17. The History and Affect of storms By: Alex Patino

18. kickstarter • How do u think storms affect people?

19. T of C • Storms in history.

20. Hurricane Katrina • It began Aug. 23, 2005 near the Bahamas. It started off as a tropical storm but when it hit the warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico it quickly escalated to a category 5 hurricane. Hurricane Katrina is the sixth largest hurricane in the western hemisphere. 1836 people died in the storm and many people had to relocate due to the destruction of jobs and cities.

21. Tornadoes • May 11 1953 a tornado hits Waco, Texas killing 114 and injuring 597 people. This tornado was a F-5 tornado. The F comes from the Fujita scale which rages from 0 to 5, with 5 being the highest. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jqRNZqRKVyo

22. El Nino or La Nina • Sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific Ocean (above). El Niño is characterized by unusually warm temperatures and La Niña by unusually cool temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. Anomalies (below) represent deviations from normal temperature values, with unusually warm temperatures shown in red and unusually cold anomalies shown in blue.

23. Tsunamis • Tsunamis are huge waves that cause massive amounts of destruction on a certain area. They can range from 45ft to 65ft in height. One hit Japan and killed 150000 people and wiped out 11 cities in 4 different countries. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sCCP9etCnzY&feature=endscreen&NR=1

24. Mesocyclone • A mesocyclone is different from a tornado because tornados are born from mesocyclones, a mesocyclone is a rotating force of air that hasn’t touched the ground and when it touches the ground it becomes tornado • http://youtu.be/U3DDH8rl758

25. A mesocyclone

26. Scientific VS Other Methods of Forecasting Brandon Maritt

27. Early Methods of Forecasting Weather • People forecasted the weather through nature observation and turned them into sayings • “A ring around the sun or moon” Since man has been fascinated by the moon throughout the ages, he has learned a thing or two about it. So a ring around the moon, he found out many moons ago, actually does mean precipitation. This is because cirrus clouds usually proceed low pressure systems bearing moisture. There are ice crystals in these clouds and they refract light. So the next time you see a ring around the moon, be prepared for rain or snow soon. With the ring around the sun, it's not quite that simple. If you look up at the sun at midday and see a ring around it, expect some change within 12 to 24 hours. The catch is-if the weather is clear when you see the ring, stormy weather is, indeed, on its way. But if the weather is dreary at the time of the ring, fair weather is about to arrive. • The sky has also been used as a weather predictor for thousands of years. "Red sky at night, sailor's delight; red sky in the morning, sailor take warning," is a pretty accurate forecast of things to come, they say. A red sky at sunset usually indicates dry weather because the sun is shining through some dust particles being pushed ahead by a high pressure system bringing in dry air. On the other hand, red sky in the morning usually means moisture is on the way. Once again, the sky is red because of the dust particles being pushed on out, but this time by an approaching low pressure system bringing in moisture.

28. Technology Improvements • The Persistence Method assumes the same weather patterns will hold true tomorrow that are evident today. If conditions are partly cloudy and 76 degrees today then it will be partly cloudy and 76 tomorrow. This type of forecasting is works well for areas with few weather fluctuations like Southern California. The Persistence Method works only for short-term forecasts in areas that have virtually no changes in weather • The Climatology Method averages weather statistics over many years to generate a best-guess forecast founded on historical data, not current conditions. • The Numerical Weather Method is the most predictable of the methods listed. Using a complex set of computerized calculations based on multiple atmospheric conditions, a forecast model is generated. While more advanced than the other methods, the Numerical Weather Method is still flawed because it lacks data from conditions over the ocean and at high mountain elevations which are not tracked

29. New Scientific Methods • The Trends Method uses the speed and direction of front movements, high and low pressure centers and areas of clouds and precipitation to make predictions. Weather systems in other areas of the country can be tracked using this method to determine when they will arrive and what conditions they will deliver. Calculated using mathematical equations, this method can be accurate for short-term use. However, should the variables of the equation change (i.e., the system speeds up, wind speed changes, direction changes) the Trends Method becomes much less accurate • The Doppler Effect was discovered by Austrian mathematician and physicist Christian Doppler. This effect notes the change in pitch resulting from a change in frequency of sound waves with movement. (For example: the change in the pitch of the siren as an ambulance drives by.) Used in weather to measure the movement of winds, Doppler radar is valuable for predicting tornados, downdrafts and other such phenomenon. • Satellite imagery is derived from visual captures by satellites in space, which are then beamed back to earth. Color-coded images disclose views of weather trends locally, regionally, nationally or internationally.

30. vocab • Doppler radar -radar using Doppler effect a means of detecting a moving target that uses electromagnetic radiation and relies on a change in the frequency of microwave signals reflected from the target • Atmosphere - the mixture of gases that surrounds an astronomical object such as the Earth