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R6 Climate Change Update

R6 Climate Change Update. Marc Kramer Senior Climate Change Scientist, R6 Specialist Meeting November 2011. New IPCC Report Due Out Nov 18th.

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R6 Climate Change Update

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  1. R6 Climate Change Update Marc Kramer Senior Climate Change Scientist, R6 Specialist Meeting November 2011

  2. New IPCC Report Due Out Nov 18th

  3. In 2007, when the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change issued its last large report on global warming, it used different scenarios for carbon dioxide pollution and said the rate of warming would be based on the rate of pollution. Boden said the latest figures put global emissions higher than the worst case projections from the climate panel. [Revised] forecasts [with new emissions figures] put global temperatures rising between 4 and 11 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the century with the best estimate at 7.5 degrees. Even though global warming skeptics have attacked the climate change panel as being too alarmist, scientists have generally found their predictions too conservative, Reilly said. He said his university worked on emissions scenarios, their likelihood, and what would happen. The IPCC's worst case scenario was only about in the middle of what MIT calculated are likely scenarios.

  4. Communicating climate change to non-specialists

  5. Forest Service Response to Climate Change:

  6. The “New” Climate Change • Translated through stressors • risk management • Blended into sustainable development • Integration of adaptation and mitigation • Normalizing sensitivity • learning to live with it • New focus on opportunities • Precautionary principle “flipped” • if uncertain, then act

  7. Risk Management and Climate Change

  8. Monitor for Ecological Surprise Expect the Unexpected

  9. FS Roadmap for Responding to Climate Change

  10. R6 Principles for Climate Response Following the National Roadmap for Responding to Climate Change FS-957b 2011 • Maintain biodiversity and ecosystem function • Sustain multiple benefits • Consider scale • Embrace partnerships – “All Lands Approach” • Manage risk • Consider human communities • Build from established programs • Provide incentives and examples

  11. USDA Strategic Plan 2010-15 Strategic Goal 2 - Ensure our national forests and private working lands are conserved, restored, and made more resilient to climate change, while enhancing our water resources. Objective 2.2 – Lead efforts to mitigate and adapt to cc Performance Measure 2.2.3 - Percent of National Forests in compliance with a climate change adaptation and mitigation strategy

  12. . Climate Change Scorecard

  13. 2 Rounds of Scorecard Reporting Complete in 2011 We now have a baseline of ‘where we are’ … . Climate Change Scorecard

  14. 2012 Goals: Communicate the linkages and benefits of CC activities to FLT and RLT. -Forest Plan Revision -NEPA and CC -Integrate Restoration/Conservation Priorities: -WCF -TCF -TRACS -Minimum Roads -Restoration -Travel Management . Climate Change Scorecard

  15. Planned Regional Activities in 2012: Focus on vulnerability assessment -Monthly calls, coordination field visits and support for CC activities on forests -Education modules for non-specialists -Vulnerability assessment toolbox forests can tier to (2012 focus on stream flow, stream temperature, snowpack and soil moisture vulnerability). -Regional carbon assessment forests can tier to (consistent with National assessments) -Incorporate climate change components into Forest Plan Revision -Work on sustainable operations component (Katie Newcomb) -Build partnerships at the regional level with state/private/tribal/federal agencies –an all lands approach. -Ecosystem services (Nikola Smith) -Test new approaches through a regional adaptive management network in coordination with PNW

  16. Regional guidance on 2012 CC activities: -Form climate change teams -Specialists can lead the way -Work with your climate change coordinator and FLT to develop a Climate Change Plan on your forest 2011-early 2012 -Forge new partnerships and alliances to tackle climate change -Integrate climate change considerations in with restoration and fuel management activities

  17. Planned regional activities in 2013: focus on adaptation strategy -Build on existing efforts from 2012 -Focus on integration with other priority programs and climate change adaptation. -Conduct workshops throughout the region on integration of these various tools. -Work together so that climate change considerations are integral to all aspects of agency operations and all employees by 2015 !!!!!!

  18. Action Plan for the Nation’s Forests and Grasslands

  19. Climate Change Scorecard Activities and the proposed Planning Rule MONITOR Monitor Climate Impacts Monitor Carbon Monitor Effectiveness Assess Vulnerability of Key Resources to Climate Change and Other Stressors ASSESS Adaptation Strategies REVISE (or Amend) Engagement Collaboration

  20. The cause is clear, and the solution is obvious … To fix this problem, we must fundamentally change the way our economy prices goods and services so that the cost of environmental degradation is embedded in the cost of production… If we do that, everything else will follow. Forbes Magazine, Steve Zwick November 4th, 2011

  21. Thank you

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